N.A.R. Re-Benchmarking

by | Dec 21, 2011 | Psycho-babble | 10 comments

The N.A.R. released their exact mis-remembering of home sales data over the last few years:

They appear to be paranoid that their reputation might be slipping, because they added this gem:

Home buyers and sellers will not be affected by any revisions to NAR’s existing-home sales data. Median home prices remain the same, and the data has no impact on consumers who want to buy or sell a home in today’s market.

Their reasons for MLS sales count and Benchmark Divergence?

  • Fewer FSBO home sales and more REALTOR®-assisted home sales (e.g., no net increase in home sales in a case where 80 MLS sales and 20 FSBOs shifts to 90 MLS sales and 10 FSBOs).
  • More Homebuilders seek REALTOR®-assistance in listing properties on MLSs (More MLS count even though there is no increase in existing home sales).
  • Flipping of a home (re-sell within 12 months). Re-benchmarked figure excludes the second sale, while they are counted as twice in MLS count.
  • Enlarged MLS geographic coverage. Some of the home sales are not an increase in home sales but are just due to enlarged sampled areas.
  • Double counting as one single property is listed in two or more MLSs.(Example: a home in Colorado Springs is listed in MLS in Colorado Springs and is also listed in MLS in Denver.)

They are right that home buyers and sellers won’t be affected, because they gave up long ago that anything relevant would come from N.A.R. But I don’t know how the median price isn’t affected – they took out 737,000 sales and the median price just happened to be the same? Maybe they don’t even know how a median price is calculated?

10 Comments

  1. anon
    anon on December 21, 2011 at 8:23 am

    Just like all the job numbers revised. A real confidence builder.

  2. 3rd Generation
    3rd Generation on December 21, 2011 at 9:49 am

    Just three words:

    CLASS ACTION LAWSUIT

    Think robo-signing stopped the market? This nasty little admition-of-guilt could derail nod, foreclosures, reo, shorts, etc. indefinitely, basically killing the market and hopefully the NAR along the way.

    We can always Hope (and Change). . .

    60 Minutes, Where are you?

  5. Patriots fan
    Patriots fan on December 21, 2011 at 11:52 am

    A 15 % error rate is significant no matter how you scrub the excuses . Unexceptable ..

  6. Booty Juice
    Booty Juice on December 21, 2011 at 3:41 pm

    No different than a gubmint job: Mere incompetence is not really a problem. Who wouldn’t want a job like that?

  8. CM
    CM on December 22, 2011 at 9:05 am

    Hi Jim – can you decipher this: “Flipping of a home (re-sell within 12 months). Re-benchmarked figure excludes the second sale, while they are counted as twice in MLS count.”

    Why *wouldn’t* you count that as two sales?

  9. Jim the Realtor
    Jim the Realtor on December 22, 2011 at 10:01 am

    If anything they should count the second sale, not the first.

    They probably thought they were copying Case-Shiller, who ignores both.

  10. CM
    CM on December 22, 2011 at 10:26 am

    Yanking sales but median unaffected. I share your lack of faith…

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