From sddt.com:
The outlook for California’s residential real estate market may be dubious, but there are some bright spots in San Diego County.
Leslie Appleton-Young, California Association of Realtors chief economist and Robert Kleinhenz, CAR deputy economist, delivered their pronouncements during a webcast Tuesday.
Appleton-Young said it is difficult if not impossible to have a strong housing market, when the statewide unemployment rate is higher than 12 percent as it has been for most of the past 18 months — especially since that doesn’t tell the whole story.
“If you include those who have given up and the underemployed, the figure climbs to 16 percent,” Appleton-Young stated.
The good news is “that housing affordability looks really great,” Appleton-Young said.
Appleton-Young noted that the median price of a resold home in the state is slightly less than $300,000 at present, and while that is still twice the national average, it is considerably more affordable than when it was closer to $500,000 at the peak of the market in the middle of the last decade.
San Diego is more affordable, as well. Whereas the percentage of those who could afford a median-priced home here was generally in the teens in the middle of the last decade, the CAR pegged the number at 41 percent at the end of June.
The median price of a resold home was $379,270 in San Diego County in June, after having been closer to $600,000 in the middle of the last decade.
While bank sales and short sales played a significant role here, particularly in eastern Chula Vista, both Appleton-Young and Kleinhenz said that San Diego will be much quicker to return to a normal market than the Inland Empire, which had enormous job losses during the recession.
“San Diego is way ahead of the curve in this regard,” Kleinhenz said.
The CAR reported about 8 percent of the resales in San Diego County were REO or bank-owned sales, and another 19 percent were short sales in August.
The distressed sales are much closer to 50 percent and higher in places, such as the Inland Empire, that are still in a much more painful recovery than here.
Still, there seems to be improvement just about everywhere in the state.
Statewide, Appleton-Young said last month traditional transactions accounted for 58 percent of the sales in August, 19 percent were REO and 22 percent of the state’s residential resale transactions were short sales.
“We’ve seen good improvements in these numbers,” Kleinhenz said, adding there still could be room for a few more REO sales added to the mix in the state, to help bring inventories back up higher than the 2.6-month level at present.
Despite all that has happened during the past three to four years, homes are still in such short supply that the CAR says multiple bids are becoming the rule rather than the exception, regardless of whether the transaction is a traditional, bank-owned or short sale transfer.
Inventory levels may be low, but Kleinhenz said there are plenty of causes for concern at the state level.
For one thing, while default notices were headed downward, there was a bump up in California last month. He worries this may be more than a blip lasting the rest of the year.
As for what all this means for San Diego, Kleinhenz said he expects sales will be modestly higher for the remainder of the year, sales will increase by about 1 percent next year and prices will increase by something less than 2 percent in 2012.
Other issues are expected to be part of the mix. These include the upcoming lowering of Federal Housing Administration loan limits in the beginning of October from $697,500 to $625,500.
While that amount may not seem like a huge reduction, given that it is still more than $600,000, Appleton-Young noted that San Diego remains relatively expensive compared to other areas.
What’s more, much depends on where in the community a person feels he/she needs to live.
“This impact of this reduction will be felt in San Diego,” Appleton-Young said, “but it will be more pronounced along the coast.”
Um… I think the new loan limits are worse than she thinks.
Agreed, it is $546,250 starting October 1st (barring any NAR miracles), but that is the author who needs to do a better job.
According to the MLS, in NSDCC so far this year there have been 182 of 2,851 sales that have been financed FHA, or 6%.
Of the 182 sales, 58 of them were above $550,000, or 2% of the overall total.
“pronounced”??
They just make this stuff up as they go along. I’m sure she thinks, “it sounds feasible, why check it?”
You are the leader of the realtors, and this is the best you can do?? You deserve to be fired.
Jim how does the median price in San Diego county vary by part of the county? Because with the median price at 379k 546k should allow one to buy a median priced home or a bit more. So is the median priced home in North San Diego County higher, ignoring those homes with an Ocean view or near the great Pacific fire break.
What do you get for that median price of $379,270? Can you buy a decent house in a decent neighborhood and send your kids to the local public school? Here in the Bay Area, there is a huge disconnect between median price and a property or neighborhood you would actually live in.
Jim, she promised to eat her hat if prices in Marin County ever fell… in other news one of my co workers here in Sonoma County walked into an “Empty” REO and found the “Owners” rather actively engaged in carnal activities on the living room floor. That house is listed by A San Diego Realtor. Hey, California is California and Santa Rosa and San Diego can’t be all that far apart with such similar names,can they?
“You are the leader of the realtors, and this is the best you can do?? You deserve to be fired.” -JtR
This is just one reason why I’m addicted to bubbleinfo…
The MLS has divided the county into sections. Here are the number of detached sales, and median sales price for the last 60 days:
Coastal South: 108, $862,500 (LJ, PB, PL, OB)
Metro Central: 160, $224,833 (south of University Ave)
Metro Uptown: 262, $385,250 (MH, NP, City Hts, College, Ken, SC, Del Cerro)
Metro: 262, $385,250 (Bay Park, Clmt, KM, UC, Serra Mesa, Tierrasanta)
NC Inland: 454, $480,000 (Poway, Ram, MM, RB, RP, SR)
East County: 529, $300,000 (LM, EC, lake, Spr Vly, Santee)
Inland East: 37, $312,000 (Alp, Des, PnV, Blvd)
Inland South: 33, $240,000 (Campo, Jam)
South Bay: 516, $330,000 (Bonita, CV, IB, NC, Coronado)
No County: 641, $350,000 (Bns, Esco, Fall, SM, Vista)
Coastal North: 577, $638,500 (our regular NSDCC + Oceanside)
If you take Oceanside out of the mix, and just check our usual Cardiff, Carlsbad, Encinitas, Del Mar, Solana Beach, RSF, and Carmel Valley, it jumps up:
NSDCC: 411, $804,375
So when they are talking about the county’s median SP being $379,000, they referring to areas like Escondido, El Cajon, and Chula Vista. The lower-end has been red hot, and the median price is skewed that way, but you’ll never hear that on the MSM, or CAR/NAR talking points.
Thanks for the breakdown by areas.
David Lereah didnt have much on Apple-ton Young as far as the classics:
‘There is a bubble a bubble in the number of articles about the housing bubble,’ Leslie Appleton-Young said of the ‘hype.’ She added, ‘The median price of a U.S. home has never declined.’”
“It’s God’s country, what can I say,” Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, told an audience of agents Tuesday in Terra Linda. “When is the 30 percent decline in Marin County’s market going to happen? Not in my lifetime.”
‘Many in California have reached the dream of living in a million-dollar home without moving,’ said Appleton-Young.”
“We may see a blip up in foreclosures and delinquencies.”
“I’m calling it a soft landing — a return to what is considered to be more normal market conditions,”
– Leslie Appleton-Young, Chief Economist, California Association of Realtors
“Maybe we need something new. That’s all I’m prepared to say”
“I’m sorry I ever made that comment.”
“When I get my new term, I’ll let you know.”
– Leslie Appleton-Young, Chief Economist, Cal. Assoc. Realtors
When asked about her “Soft Landing” prediction
Good times…..
I’m quite surprised she still has a job after everything she has said and done along the way. Jim, sounds like your Realtor colleagues are a real forgiving bunch!
I think the loan limit change is going to be a non event for the most part. The housing market has been slowing down as we move into the slower time of year. Certainly the loan limit decrease will be used as an excuse if home sales cool down further but I’m thinking that was probably going to happen anyways.
December Headline. NAR economists blame lower loan limits for 10% decrease in sales.
“You are the leader of the realtors, and this is the best you can do?? You deserve to be fired.
Jim the Realtor | September 20th, 2011 at 7:31 pm”
I am Proud of You, JTR. Cheers!
Extra Credit ADD: ‘and you and Yun and Lereah all need to have the shit kicked out of you publicly by pissed off homeless house debtors with F*cked credit and no hope exposing you/r entire organization for the disgraceful shill it is and when you recover go straight to prison for life, (the only picture available to you to hang in your single cell in isolation would be of Orangeman Mozilo) with prejudice.’
Jim, sounds like your Realtor colleagues are a real forgiving bunch!
Forgiving because of ignorance – they just believe everything that’s fed to them.
Nobody questions authority any more, an idea that was born during this generation! What happened? Why did the flower children of the 60’s give up? Just old age? It’s too bad, because if Gen X or Y rises up it is likely to be much more violent, if you ask me.
11.I think the loan limit change is going to be a non event for the most part.
Agreed, I have people in this quandry and we’re going to figure out another way, or adjust. It’ll still take finding the perfect house at the perfect price.
December Headline. NAR economists blame lower loan limits for 10% decrease in sales.
Agree also, and it might be as soon as November.
Why doesn’t it occur to alleged economists that people WANT TO BUY A HOUSE when they can get 4% rates? There are plenty of buyers, somebody needs to tell the sellers to get off their high horse and lower their price!
Yunnie!!! Step up to the microphone and say it – “Sellers, lower your price!!”
Why did the flower children of the 60?s give up? Just old age? It’s too bad, because if Gen X or Y rises up it is likely to be much more violent, if you ask me.
Its the flower children that are in power now! Bringing us 1984 big brother- They invented the hilocopter parenting; every child is a precious snow flake; no trophey (everyone is a winner) little leagues. Their offspring are so warped they would not be able to explain “Question Authority” if their life depended on it.
You are right…the next 1960’s will be a lot more violent.
At least they will have their gated communities to hide out in – another product of the “Put up a sign to keep me out” generation
This country started down the wrong path when we quit spanking the kids.
My Dad used to whip my butt with his belt, and he was a big guy – 6’3″, 225.
It instilled respect, and I am better off for it today.
Instead, now we have little or no respect for others, very little if any real community, and it’s just me, me, me – what can I get without much risk before I go hide in my hole.
John Mayer says it well:
And when you trust your television
What you get is what you got
Cause when they own the information, oh
They can bend it all they want
I’m generation X, and everyone I know in my age group is doing their best to survive.
One observation, though. The flower power of 60’s naiively pined for a single world of love. What they got was a global competition and hatred. That disdain for the military-industrial complex didn’t have staying power when our enemies attacked us. Sadly, we grew another malignant appendage, the Financial Industrial Complex, under their care. Both need to be destroyed.
The danger is that America closes in on itself in the coming years, rather than pushing through the local and global problems to achieve their parent’s dream and make it a reality of global peace. Misguided as they were, it’s not a bad dream to live in harmony, respecting other’s opinions. Unfortunately, the generation that promoted that understanding is largely driving the intolerance in America that we still see. I guess old habits die hard.
Chuck
I’m a baby boomer, and I’ll live with that Chuck. Hopefully the revolution will come someday, before it’s too late. Look for me, I’ll be out in front!
Chrissie Hynde:
http://www.lyricsfreak.com/p/pretenders/revolution_20110653.html