On a day where 2 billion people are engrossed with the kisses of two British 20-somethings, let’s shine the spotlight on San Diego’s own King of Graphs, Rich Toscano.
Here’s an excerpt and two of the graphs from his post, click here for the full story:
It is interesting, however, that the low-priced tier of the index dropped as much as it did. After weathering the recent fall/winter lull better than the other tiers, the low-priced homes were spanked for 2.7 percent in February. The middle tier was down 1.4 percent and the high tier by .5 percent for the month.
This looks like somewhat of a catch-up move which reverses the low tier’s previous strength and gets it more into line with recent price changes in the overall market.
The San Diego Case-Shiller Index since 1989:
The bottom graph tells the story best. More volatility in the low tier because more people are able to participate in run-ups and crashes.
Maybe the drop in low tier is the result of the cash buyers stepping out after buying in the winter months and not wanting to be a part of a more competitive spring market with regular buyers.
I want to pin these charts on my office wall as a reminder to sell down the road next time things get spicy and break out to the upside.
Anyway you cut it, it looks like a lost decade.
Do you guys think prices will drop below the 2009 bottom? Sure looks like they might.
As the resident bull I’m confident it won’t drop below 2009. And, like clearfund wrote, kind of hard not get greedily inspired by the thought of selling in 2005. But for now a house is a home and not a quick ticket to fast cash.
I actually think it will go below 2009. No more tax credits, economy isn’t improving. Inflation in the wrong places. Rate rises are a given. Still plenty of deflationary forces.
I like the new and improved more rational Mozart.