The inventory of houses around North SD County Coastal has been tight lately, is it getting any better? Here are the counts of new MLS listings of detached homes (includes many re-lists in new year too!) for the North SD County Coastal region, from December 1 to January 7th:
| Year | New Listings |
| 2005 | |
| 2006 | |
| 2007 | |
| 2008 | |
| 2009 | |
| 2010 | |
| 2011 |
It seemed likely that by the time we got to 2011, the inventory would be a bank-controlled environment – where REO and short-sale listings would dominate. Here are the number of listings from the above counts that are marked as REOs and short-sales:
| Year | REOs | SS | Totals | % of All |
| 2010 | 36 | |||
| 2011 | 33 |
Not a lot of hope for deals there. A prominent REO-listing agent reported last week that they haven’t received a new assignment from Bank of America in months. While BofA’s self-inflicted robo-signing moratorium has been lifted, they are still behind last year’s pace. Here are the Recontrust foreclosures between Dec. 1 – Jan. 7:
| Year | # of SD Properties Foreclosed By Recontrust |
| 2010 | |
| 2011 |
BofA is still foreclosing, but the drip system appears to be fully deployed. For the buyers hoping for a surge of more inventory, hang in there!
Jim, I’m off topic here but just wanted to update you on something you posted a while back. San Marcos High now scores a “9” on greatschools.org, the same as Canyon Crest in Carmel Valley. Torrey Pines and San Dieguito have fallen to “8” while La Costa Canyon and Carlsbad have fallen to “7”. WOW.
Holy Cartel Batman!
Eventually they are going to have to sell their houses. Do they plan on following the drip paradigm for the next decade? What does it cost them to hold inventory back?
Genius – It doesn’t cost “them” anything as “them” is typically the securities/trust/RMBS holders, not the bank.
Banks are collecting a fee for processing and managing, just like your financial advisor takes his fees whether you make/lose money.
Oceanside scores a 6 and I know this year kids got into MIT, UCSD, STANFORD, and HARVARD.
I would not say this API thing means much.
El Camino High (also in Oceanside) is rated a 7, the same as La Costa Canyon and Carlsbad. Is there some fault with their rating system? Or has the gap really lessened?
I disagree with clearfund on the holding costs. The REO department of servicers are one of the highest cost areas in the company. The average number of assets per employee is much lower than in the collection department. So the cost per asset is much higher. There are also a number of holding costs like maintenance, winterizing, mowing the lawn and the costs of city REO regulations. If the loans are securitized or owned by FNMA or Freddie, the servicers also have to advance P&I to the trusts as well as taxes and insurance on the property. The advances are 100% recoverable when the property is liquidated but there is still a cost of capital and any financing costs. This is one reason most servicers will let the taxes go delinquent and not pay until the property is coming up on a tax sale.
Guess that tsunami and the shadow inventory have been a real let down to many. Though not to the average homeowner like me.
The banks will sit on these properties for years until appreciation kicks back in more robustly and as JtR has pointed out they’ll then sell at retail.
Might as well come to terms with this. Though I will say that waiting the rest of the year probably won’t hurt either since the annual sweet spot for buying has already passed with December.
At this point most Sellers are also discouraged and will just let their listings expire and try again in 2012.
JtR,
This is purely anectdotal at this point, but I have been paying close attention to the trustee sales and NOTs since Jan. 3, on the theory that: (1) most self imposed robo-signing and holiday moratoriums would end; (2) most mod proposals and trial plans etc. extended between June and October would have get cancelled or would fail by early this year if that were gonna happen; (3) political pressure has abated; and (4) banks are into a new fiscal quarter for purposes of absorbing losses that they recognize.
My observations of the LA trustee sale process a week in are that sales are once again equaling or outpacing cancellations each day. This supports point 2 above, and I have also seen many previously cancelled sales renoticed for late January or early February. Again, this suggests that the ineligible or unsuccessful loan modders are finally going to get the boot.
I have also noticed some of the worst servicers (e.g. Aurora) finally completing trustee sales on higher end defaults (i.e. loan amounts above $750k). For the past 2 years, they have been delaying and cancelling such sales. Maybe they’re finally going to dispose of all these nonperforming jumbo Alt-A loans that Lehman packaged into RMBS?
Also, REO properties that have inexplicably not been listed for sale for 6, 9 or 12 months are now being listed in my area. Maybe this is due to point number 4 above?
I’ll continue to watch this (and bid on properties that actually go to auction), but I am cautiously optimistic that the foreclosure machine is being turned back on – just to “normal” speed so far, not any kind of deluge – stay tuned!