The detached sales in North SD County Coastal has been slowing down the last couple of weeks.
The recent solds had looked promising, with 251 detached homes closed last month, which was a 24% increase over the 202 that closed in June, 2009.
But the new pendings are sluggish. Here are the number of detached listings marked pending only – contingents not included – during each 7-day period (2009 have all closed):
| 7-day period | 2009 | 2010 |
| 6/14-20 | 48 | 40 |
| 6/21-27 | 52 | 71 |
| 6/28-7/4 | 51 | 52 |
| 7/5-11 | 41 | 37 |
| 7/12-18 | 56 | 48 |
The last two weeks’ worth of new pendings haven’t hit their 17-day contingency deadline, there will be even fewer that actually close. In July, 2009 there were 237 detached sales, and so far this month there have been 98 closings – we might not get up to last year’s count. If we’re only having 30-40 real pendings per week, the drastically-lower YOY sales in the coming months will look like a missed opportunity to sellers, but will they lower their price, or cancel?
There are buyers. Over the weekend I wrote offers with two different buyers that both got caught in multiple-offer situations, both on one-story homes. One is still in competition with two others at what appears to be a little under list price (I think), but we lost on the other, even though we wrote a full-price, 30% down-payment offer with pre-approval and proof of funds submitted.
It reminds me of the old saying: “Look to buy when everyone else isn’t”.
Another way to look at it, detached active listings/July new pendings:
Cardiff: 47/2
Carlsbad: 445/50
Carmel Valley: 207/24
Del Mar: 142/6
La Jolla: 289/11
RSF: 310/10
SB: 56/2
There are 143 contingent listings, but guessing a third of those won’t close, and the remainder be spread over the next 3-4 months. For monthly sales to keep up with last year, we’ll be dependent on short sales closing – the new age!
Though wasnt last year’s buying spree sort of delayed (vs normal)? Seeemd like purchases ran a bit higher later in the summer than normal.
Or maybe I’m remembering wrong..
Yes, we had more sales in September (229) and October (210) than in May and June (187 and 202 respectively) in the La Jolla-to-Carlsbad region.
Will the seller recognize in time that they need to lower their price?
With no competing REO listings, I think there might be too much exuburance this year, and we’ll end up with cancellation city right before Thanksgiving. The fourth quarter could be a dud.
While the tax credit doesn’t impact NC Coastal too much, I expect Sept/Oct 2010 to be significantly weaker than Sept/Oct 2009, There was a pretty decent rush to buy at the expiration of the first tax credit. There was less of a rush at the latest tax credit. With elections coming up in November there isn’t likely to be much government stimulus in the housing market no matter how bad things get, until next year at the earliest.
I’m curious is we’ll see an impact on pricing by Oct/Nov of this year or will people just try to hang on until the next spring selling season, hoping to get their price.
“Look to buy when everyone else isn’t”
This is great advice. But when you throw caution to the wind and go KAMIKAZE it’s sooo much fun!!
Carlsbad and Carmel Valley are “hot” compared to all the other areas which are around 10-12 pendings per 300 actives. Interesting.