Rich Toscano does nicer graphs – from the Voice of San Diego:
As with prices, San Diego home sales were up sharply in May.
The graph below shows that activity first dropped in April as people delayed closing to get into the tax credit double-dip window (as described in the prior entry on prices) and then surged by 17 percent once the window arrived. The window will remain open through June, so we should see another strong month in June followed by weakness in July as buyers pull their purchase dates forward to maximize their tax credit haul.
Despite the number of homes being purchased, inventory rose yet again in May. The increase was modest — under 3 percent — but this next graph shows that the sustained rise in inventory this year is unlike anything we saw in 2008 or 2009.
If supply keeps rising like this, the post-tax credit lull in demand (should the various tax credits ever end) could create some price weakness. But that is a possibility in the future. The incentive-laden reality as of now, or at least as of last month, is that prices are strong and homes are flying off the shelves.
My local bank’s been offering 4.75% for a conforming 30 year fixed. Still not low enough for me to refinance, but compared to 5.25% when I bought it drops your payments by about 5% due to the amortization. In a way, this is the new government incentive for home buying. =)
Which is why you need to know the long term trajectories before you make any decisions. The government can stop long term trends only in the short run. How did all those short sale bans impact FNM and FRE stock?
Haven’t many on the blog been saying it is just a matter of time until the inventory makes it way back to the market. Elevated NODs cannot remain off market forever
I thought the CA incentive was still up and running, or is that pot dry now?
It looks like they are only 2/3’s done with the CA tax credit:
Applications for First-Time Buyer Credit received as of 06/08/10
As of Estimated Total First-Time Buyer Applications Received 57% of Estimated Requested Credit
05/04/10 430 $ 2,351,000
05/11/10 2,470 $ 13,283,000
05/18/10 4,830 $ 25,473,000
05/25/10 7,330 $ 38,357,000
06/01/10 9,760 $ 50,948,000
06/08/10 12,740 $ 65,787,000
They came up with the 57% number because they think there will be many DQ’d and under-qualified.
The NODs at #3?
It’s been running around 50% cancellations, through either successful short sales or loan mods.
Off-topic, but I just found this online @ LA Times. “Bel Air Mansion Fetches Highest Price This Year For A U.S Residence”.
http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-top-sale-20100611,0,3432098.story
The selling price wasn’t confirmed but fell between $50-$72 million (the asking price).
*Chuckle* I wonder what the real estate commission was on THAT transaction…
Wonder if they need anyone to tend to the swan pond?
LA House – land cost of $5+11=$16 +$40mm to build (article said $50 but he’s likely fluffing that) so a MIN cost is $56mm so we round up to $60mm.
thus, after all that he likely broke even or made very little after 10 years of work and effort on the home…
Too bad it didn’t get to JTR’s trustee sale program!
So, at that rate, the state tax credit should be gone by the end of the month at the latest. Prices therefore should drop and supply should increase starting in July, especially on the low end. I wonder by how much and how long it will last?
OT-
That tuna melt’s been sitting out for a month now and it’s starting to smell sweeeeeet!
Any action?
B of A moving to more proactive short sale policy:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37644643