From the U-T, more hoopla about rising prices:
Resale-home-prices-rise-percent-first-quarter-2010
At least this made the cut, although it was the sixth paragraph down:
Although San Diego prices rose, they remain far below the peak set in 2005, and some analysts say the increase reflects a change in market mix — more high-priced homes selling than in previous quarters — than a major increase in value.p>
The misleading part is that they keep saying that “prices rose”. All that happened was that the median price went up, that’s it. Here is the brief ‘market mix’ noted above of SD County detached homes in the first quarter:
| 2009/2010 | # of sales | % chg. | $-psf |
| $0-$400K | 3,232/2,513 | -22% | $180/$199 |
| $4-800K | 1,281/1,610 | +26% | $242/$259 |
| $8-$1.20 | 171/280 | +64% | $354/$343 |
| $1.20+ | 129/180 | +40% | $569/$523 |
| Totals | 4,813/4,583 | -5% | $213/$241 |
It looks like there are more mid-range and high-end homes selling, which skew the median sales price. Let’s work in some more detailed analysis over the next few days. Any personal observations?
My observations:
I’m seeing list prices go up in the areas where I’m looking. As I’ve mentioned in a couple of other posts, even REO pricing is not immune. It seems like right now that there’s a general sense that prices are going up and sellers, even banks listing vacant REOs with green pools, should push listings to the high side.
So far the craziest stuff is sitting. But other properties that are maybe not crazy high but still pushing the envelope, and are generally nice, are going pending. I have been seeing stuff sit pending for months, so maybe folks are having trouble getting loans or properties are not appraising.
It remains to be seen how long the crazy high properties sit on the market. I don’t see how this trend stops until sellers stop getting offers.
I was speaking with my neighbor the other day. I mentioned that I am going to try to find another lease but it is hard to find nice rentals in NC Coastal that are nice and not an Arm and a leg. I said that I should probably buy something in the next year or two. She said “you better hurry before prices go up.” Which is a good indication out there that most people don’t have a clue and just read the 15 second sound bite and gives me fuel to keep waiting until there is less risk in the market.
“These Days” on KPBS had a program on the other day and a caller hit the nail on the head.
http://www.kpbs.org/news/2010/may/11/have-residential-commercial-markets-hit-bottom/
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NICOLE (Caller, La Mesa): Good morning. Thanks for taking my call. I just wanted – My comment’s basically the same as some of the other people that have called in and one of the persons who said bad things turning into good. And I personally just – I hear economists and real estate agents saying that the market’s going to turn around and prices are going to go back up but I honestly hope that they never go back up and would like them to keep going down. As a young professional and my husband, a professional, we still can’t afford to buy a home even in where we want to live in La Mesa. And the majority of our friends who have young families can’t afford to buy a home either. And I still don’t see that happening unless prices continue to go down.
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Median home pricing is really pretty meaning less to anyone looking to buy or sell a home. Just an EZ way for reporters to get a number without too much work as a comparison.
Pricing tends to follow the number of sales and the number of sales were high in March and April 2010, so the pricing continues to remain high. If sales start dropping in May and June then pricing might start being effected in July/Aug/September although I don’t expect to see major pricing concessions until Oct 2010 or later. The only real unknown is whether the REO inventory ramps up and a bank decides to cut losses and be the first one out.
OT QUESTION (harkening back to Jim’s “short sale” video):
I have a friend attempting to purchase a home here in L.A. on a short sale. The realtor has stated that the second lien holder has to be paid separately in cash at closing to release their claim. The second doesn’t fall under the regular contract, so…
What documents should my friend demand to make sure that the second lien holder is bound to the proposed arrangement? Is there anything else he should be aware of, too?
Jim, I think you nailed it. Once again, the data for price ranges helps paint the picture.
w_f_e_t_b, that is a great quote that probably sums up many of this blog’s readers’ situations. How can a college graduate of the last ten years afford to buy a reasonable home in a neighborhood with people of similar education? People don’t go to college, work for high salaries, and save up six figures to live in a dump. And I don’t care how close the beach is, I’m not shelling out $700k+ to live in a 1,200 sqft mold farm built in the 50’s. I gotta think at some point buyers with big cash and equity will dry up. Then all that will be left are the young families that are priced out. If that happens, sellers will run out of people to sell to.
Waiting to Feel, I’ve noticed the same thing. On SDLookup, I’ll constantly look at “today’s changes” in different zip codes. I see a bunch of “sale pendings,” but very few “closed sales.” Homes sit pending forever. I wonder what the average days to close is.
I can’t remember if you linked to it when it posted 2 weeks ago, but I thought this was some good data:
http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/toscano/article_ec15f570-5633-11df-9a38-001cc4c03286.html
I was especially encouraged since I bought in the lower tier in May 09
tj,
I believe that you’re talking about the second wanting off HUD money (i.e. under the table, so that the first doesn’t know about it). Basically, the second is trying to defraud the first because if the first knew that there was more money changing hands they would want it for themselves, and as I understand it the first is legally entitled to it until they are completely satisfied.
We had that come up on one deal, and it was not a trivial sum of money either. We were not comfortable with it. We said everything has to be on the table. The listing agent agreed and now it is in the SS time warp of approval.
I track the mission hills market pretty closely. Like you have said regarding north county coastal many times if the house is nice and priced aggressively it sells in a few days. I just saw two houses priced well at around 900k sell in a few days so even the higher end is moving. There are buyers out there laying in wait but they are very in tune with price and values. For the 900k+ market I’d say we are getting pretty close to 2001-2002 nominal price levels on some of these deals. There are not many short sales that actually make it to close although they go contingent pretty quick with buyers hoping to score a deal. Just saw a REO come on the market that was a short sale attempt forever. It is priced at one million which is 200k over the 2001 price. Looks a little steep at that price.
Hi pemeliza,
I see the better deals at the higher end too. I don’t spend time monitoring stuff that’s way out of my price range, but stuff on the fringes, both below and above my price range, seems to follow the idea that the higher the price the better the deal relative to the peak price.
In RB and PQ in the $700k range, if you can get down into mid 2004 pricing you’re doing pretty well. There’s nothing at 2001 levels in that range. If you creep up into $800k, then there’s an occasional killer deal to be had.
Well,after 2 years of devoting my time to watching actual sales prices, looking at about 35 homes in person and driving by 100 at least after seeing them on Redfin or Foreclosure Radar, I will be closing on a house in the Fire Mountain area of Oceanside in a few days. I made offers on 4 homes during this time period, and only one looks like I should have gone a little more to get it. The federal or state tax benefit has no bearing on my buying this home now. On a $500,000 plus house it really is a drop in the bucket. It seems to me that prices in this area NC Coastal have stopped going down in the last 6 months and I just got tired of looking any longer. I found a home that I can afford, am going to be happy living there and just want to think about something else. So hang on to your wallets. About 30 days from now, after my all cash deal is closed, the check is cashed and I am finding all the hidden problems with my new “Dream House” the North County Coastal Market will become a national news story covering the precipitous drop in sales and pricing. Welcome to the next leg DOWN!
Looks like $ppsf is up in the under $800K market, which looking at the volume numbers is 89.9629% of transactions. So it seems like the median is telling the truth, for the majority of sales, prices are up.
BILLYFEET ALL CASH DEAL,
Was jim your realtor/advisor? I sure hope so…
Congratulations on your new home, Billyfeet! 🙂
Billyfeet, fire mountain is a nice area, I’m sure you’ll be happy. We’ve lived in Oceanside (Sea Mesa neighborhood, the hill to the NE of Fire Mountain) for 10 years now and it has been very good to us.
Regarding OCEANSIDE..
Check out the “Relisted..Delisted..Relisted..Delisted..Relisted…”
That’s what I see regularly in my looking.. just a typical example! As a buyer I have NO IDEA what is going on, I can only guess.
“5/12/10 back on market. Subject to successful cancellation of current escrow.”
May 14, 2010 Relisted — — SANDICOR #100024878
May 13, 2010 Delisted — — SANDICOR #100024878
May 05, 2010 Relisted — — SANDICOR #100024878
Apr 30, 2010 Delisted — — SANDICOR #100024878
Apr 24, 2010 Listed $245,000 — SANDICOR #100024878
Feb 16, 2010 Delisted — — Inactive SANDICOR #1
Feb 09, 2010 Listed — — Inactive SANDICOR #1
Dec 30, 2009 Sold (Public Records) $155,500 — Public Records
Dec 30, 2009 Sold (MLS) $155,500 — Inactive SANDICOR #090061800
Nov 23, 2009 Price Changed $136,300 — Inactive SANDICOR #090061800
Nov 02, 2009 Listed $130,000 — Inactive SANDICOR #090061800