Here’s a larger set of weekly pendings, hoping to quantify the impact of the state housing tax credit on detached sales in San Diego County.
Number of New Detached Pendings
|April||SD Co. ’09/’10||NSDCC ’09/’10|
After enjoying a 39% increase in sales, year-to-date (wasn’t it 44% the other day?) the North SD County Coastal pendings actually tapered off the last couple of weeks, once you subtract for expected fall-outs.
The late push during the last two weeks to secure a binding contract before the finish of the federal tax credit might result in an extra 100-150 sales county-wide, at best. It could end up being much less.
The overall impact on county sales from the tax credit? Let’s compare year-over-year the pendings between Jan 1st and April 30th.
2009 = 7,827 all closed
2010 = 8,009 (4,472 closed, 3,537 pendings)
There were 1,415 of the 3,537 marked pending since April 15th, and still in their 17-day contingency period. If a third of those fall out of escrow (467), we’d be behind last year’s total sales. If we see half of the 2,536 contingent listings close, it would get us up to 8,810 closings, a mere 13% improvment in sales from 2009. You could say the tax credit didn’t help much.