from sddt.com:
The worst may be over for the San Diego housing market, but local and national Realtor associations are trying to rally their members to contribute to their “political survival.”
The San Diego Association of Realtors hosted its Regional Real Estate Summit Tuesday and featured guests like National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, California Association of Realtors President James Liptak and N.A.R. immediate past President Dick Gaylord.
The Realtors spoke to a crowd of 700 that included real estate professionals, representatives from the offices of local congressmen and San Diego Mayor Jerry Sanders.
Liptak said the key to achieving Realtor goals was for organizations like N.A.R. and C.A.R. to interact with government officials.
He said it is an “amazing” time to be in the residential real estate business since Realtors have a chance to make a change for the better.
“I honestly feel like I won the lottery,” he said about being the president of C.A.R. during what most real estate professionals have said is one of the strangest markets they’ve encountered.
One of the major points of contention between local real estate professionals and the federal government is the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC), which has led to out-of-town appraisers being required to do appraisals.
Both the Realtors organizations and the California Association of Mortgage Brokers have urged state and federal governments to put an 18-month moratorium on the HVCC.
Additionally, Realtors and other residential real estate-related industry associations have been pushing to extend and expand the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit.
With the credit expiring on Nov. 30, real estate agents have about a month to make sales that will close in time to qualify for the credit.
Realtors hope to extend the duration of the qualifying period to sometime in the middle of 2010 in order to encourage home sales. Additionally, they want it to be available to all home purchasers, not just first-time buyers.
The Realtors said the tax credit is responsible for the number of home sales tripling in some parts of San Diego County this year.
With inventory levels in the area at a two- to three-month supply and median prices stabilizing, Yun said the housing market is improving while the rest of the country lags.
“In my view, the downturn is over” in San Diego, he said.
Even with a slew of foreclosures expected to increase inventory across the country, Yun said in San Diego, there is enough demand to absorb it.
Local real estate agents have said they have received dozens of offers on underpriced foreclosures.
S.D.A.R. President Erik Weichelt said he received 103 offers on a house he listed recently, with the final sale totaling more than $150,000 over the asking price.
With all the competition in the market for mid- and low-priced homes, Yun said there are reasons for potential homebuyers to be optimistic about the current market.
“People who are buying today might see a home equity gain a year from now,” he said. “Further decline in prices could be minimal — if there are price declines at all.”
However, he said sales for higher-priced homes are still sluggish and will likely not improve until financing for jumbo loans is easier to come by.
Are these the same realtors and so called professionals telling clients to buy in 2005?So what has changed?Did they polish up the crystal ball?Be very careful where your advice comes from.Usually people are trying to boost thier own net worth rather than yours.
Wasn’t it Yun who said late in 2006 the R.E. market would never fall?
“Never a better time to buy”
“Buy now or be priced out forever”
Where have I heard this stuff before? And did the RE industry [as a whole, our host excluded] ever quit saying it during this whole downturn?
Remember, even a broken clock is right twice a day.
p.s.
Sorry Jim, no offense intended.
DREAM ON!!!
“However, he said sales for higher-priced homes are still sluggish and will likely not improve until financing for jumbo loans is easier to come by.”
Or, you know, the price drops…
Yun is such cheerleader for NAR, it is scary.
If the market is so strong, why are they trying to extend the taxpayers’ gift to sellers? Why are they advocating for “easier” jumbo loans?
I agree that the market is hot right now, but think it’s 99% due to major manipulation on both the supply and demand sides.
One question for them: what are you going to do about jobs?
Not that they know, because I suspect they don’t. San Diego is counting on out of towners or snow birds. Nothing wrong with that, but you can’t sustain the current population with that. And maybe that’s the plan here. Maybe no one cares if the working class leaves here.
Jim, what is your prediction with your first hand experience?
I was there along with Jim and he did indeed report exactly what was reported. Here are the facts…prices have increased for the past 4 mos.. a little. But a little is O.K. today. The fact that the jumbo loan market is still iffy was reported. Meaning…. Areas above 750K plus still have room for worry. However, why is it a good time to buy, if you can find a home to actually purchase? All you have to do is click on Jims interview link below to find out. Interest rates are going to go up…faster than you may think. The comments in that link are very real, and very accurate. We as Americans think we are immune from problems…we are not. Even if prices do drop again, these low interest rates may very well be our salvation if we are so inclined to really think! Just food for thought. Kurt Kinsey, Realtor and Chairman of the board for the North San Diego County Associaiton of Realtors
Kurt –
The higher, and faster interest rates go up – the bigger and faster the price drops. I think you’ll find most people who have been waiting, and saving up cash are actually looking forward to higher rates.
Artificially low rates are preserving artificially high prices.
Anyone panicking or worrying about buying a house now before rates go up, tax credits end, or because of various “if you can find a home to actually purchase” innuendos from Realtors needs to seriously stop and re-evaluate.
None of those are good reasons to buy IMHO. They are however, all very good ways to make a very bad decision.
Just because the cheerleaders are cheering, doesn’t mean they are on your team.
Jim, I take it from that silly grin that Larry had no idea what you really thought of him.
Jim,
I hope you burned your clothing and went home a took a shower in Lysol after getting that close to Funny Yunny. Have a geiger counter test for radioactivity Right Away… How anyone could believe ANYTHING that wrong paid-for-shill/clown (sorry professional clowns for the insult) has to say would be At their Own Risk.
Too Bad a class act like yourself has to be even in the same county as that shill.
Do not Drink that Lereah-Yun Kool-Aid. Look what it did for the Jim Jones followers.. At least they were all dead and not dead broke.
NAR = Toxic Waste Dump with million-year half life.
The $8K tax credit is a government handout that certain people can take; others cannot. I have a “very used” ’93 Honda Accord that I would love to trade in for $4500 credit on new car purchase. Car dealer would also love for me to do it.
If the goal is to motivate people to buy cars, who cares if their trade in is an Accord instead of a ford Exploder? If the goal is to motivate people to buy houses, who cares if they are a first time buyer? Of course, both policies are bad IMO, but if they insist on handing money out to manipulate prices and market demand, why limit their largess?
have to agree with CA renter above. If the market is so strong, why all the clamor to extend and expand the home-buyers tax credit?
Government support of the housing market has gotten way out of hand. Through GSEs, the government is on the hook for over 60 percent of all outstanding home mortgages, and is currently backing 80-90 percent of all new mortgages. And unlike any other asset class, home mortgage interest is deductible and capital gains are not taxed. And now the government is paying people $8000 to buy homes? And this is not enough for realtors???
Government involvement in the housing market is way out of control — it is the textbook definition of systemic risk and a gross distortion of the economic incentive structure.
“People who are buying today might see a home equity gain a year from now,” he said. “Further decline in prices could be minimal — if there are price declines at all.”
This is going to be a great quote to look back on a year from now. Keep selling the snake oil Yun tell the realtors what they want to hear. Maybe you can sneak a few more paychecks out of them before you’re entirely discredited.
As a home owner I hope we are near the bottom, or at least bouncing around the bottom now after 3 years down, down, down! I’m recognizing a bottom now for homes under 300k. Try and buy a 300k listing right now…you get 200k worth of beaten 30-40 year old drywall for 300k!
S.D.A.R. President Erik Weichelt said he received 103 offers on a house he listed recently, with the final sale totaling more than $150,000 over the asking price.
This doesn’t tell us anything, as it could have been prices $150,000 below market. If you list something way below market, don’t be surprised that you get a ton of offers and it ends up selling above the list price.
Where’s the psycho-babble tag?
From yesterday’s U/T: “San Diego County home prices continued their cautious comeback last month, clocking in at a median of $320,000, up from the recession’s low of $280,000 in January.”
That’s a 14% increase in prices over 6 months.
Of course, it only took some middle tier home sales to bring the median up quickly, but, the upper end is starting to light-up too.
The $8K tax credit is a government handout that certain people can take; others cannot. I have a “very used” ‘93 Honda Accord that I would love to trade in for $4500 credit on new car purchase. Car dealer would also love for me to do it.
If the goal is to motivate people to buy cars, who cares if their trade in is an Accord instead of a ford Exploder? If the goal is to motivate people to buy houses, who cares if they are a first time buyer? Of course, both policies are bad IMO, but if they insist on handing money out to manipulate prices and market demand, why limit their largess?
Smithers | August 19th, 2009 at 1:37 am
The cash for clunkers had two goals-to increase sales of cars (hopefully domestically-made, but trade treaties prevent it from only applying to them), and to reduce the amount of foreign oil used. Hence the design of the program. Your old Accord gets good mileage, therefore removing it doesn’t help the second goal.
The bill probably could not have passed Congress if the pro-green/anti-foreign oil rules were not in the bill.
“People who are buying today might see a home equity gain a year from now,” he said. “Further decline in prices could be minimal — if there are price declines at all.”
The center for economic and Policy research disagrees with this.
They just released a report in which the overall gist is mild depreciation for San Diego. Interestingly, much of the core country will have mild appreciation.
Who is right? Well California in my mind is an extremely disingenuous state so I tend to side with that does not originate here in terms of real estate research.
Agree 100% with sdnerd’s response to Kurt’s suggestion that higher rates are around the corner.
Some of us have been waiting very, very patiently (or not) for higher rates. Personally, we’ve been waiting for over five years for higher rates. Believe it or not, some of us see higher rates as the salvation of the housing market — “salvation” meaning a return to a sane housing market where families can buy an affordable home (meaning low prices, not gimmicky rates and mortgages), and the “free money” specuvestor crowd dies off. It can’t come soon enough.
“People who are buying today might see a home equity gain a year from now,” he said. “Further decline in prices could be minimal — if there are price declines at all.”
With the blatant market manipulation by Uncle Sams through bailouts and subsidies, would anyone be surprised if the home buyer credit is raised to 15k for ALL buyers after November causing another frenzy at the mid level? Remember the Democrats will be increasingly anxious to buy their seats for the upcoming mid term election next year…
Jim thanks for your awesome site and forum for the few refugees who don’t drink the koolaid dished out by the powers that be.
CNN has an item on local ex-home debtors
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2009/real_estate/0908/gallery.Life_after_foreclosure/3.html
and
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2009/real_estate/0908/gallery.Life_after_foreclosure/2.html
They write as if these guys are free and clear of the debt despite the cash out re-fi s.
I wonder if they really are free of the debts – and if current buyers now are going to end up in the same situation.
So the realtors didn’t want to hear again from this guy below after that 2006 speech he gave?
Too much drama perhaps?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6G3Qefbt0n4&feature=PlayList&p=B077EA2B610F7D6D&index=0&playnext=1
He had no idea who you were when that picture was taken, did he… 🙂
My favorite saying is; “It’s never as bad as people say it is, and it’s also never a good as people say it is”. If you go back in time all the way to WW2 these RE recessions happen in the nine,zero & one years. 1959,1960,1961 Eisenhower #34 was president, 1969,1970,1971 Nixon #37 was president,1979,1980,1981 Carter #39 was president, 1989, 1990, 1991 George HW Bush # 41 was president, 1999,2000,2001 Clinton # 42 was president. In RE over any 10 year period your going to have 3.3+- years of boom, 3.3+- years of bust, and 3.3+- years of a market that moves latraley. Granted this time with easy money it is worse than other recessions. The higher the peek, the lower the valley. One no-brainer way to know if it’s time for you to buy is if buying you have a lower payment than if you rent.