It was mentioned yesterday that we could be in for a “long cold winter” if sellers think they can start raising their list prices. The last two years in North SD County Coastal (Carlsbad to Carmel Valley) has seen detached sales drop off between the 3rd and 4th quarters by 33% and 28%, respectively:
Obviously it’s only August today, but if the foreclosure tsunami gets kicked into 2010, it could be chilly for sales over the next few months.
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Q4 is going to keep on chugging along for sellers priced right, buyers looking to get in and good agents like Jim finding the right match for their clients.
Jim cramer said the recsession is over.Go out and buy a house and some stocks!!!
Did you guys see the great people from countrywide started a new business called pennymac?Ipo came out at 20 bucks.They raised over 300 million.This seems nuts to me.What in the world does it take to get an IPO.How people forget pets.com.The stock market is beginning to look like the easiest way to fleece americans from their money.Create a so called business with no potential for earnings and sell stock to gullable investors.Then pay your execs millions to run the company into the ground and go bankrupt leaving the common share holders holding the bag.Am I missing something?
If seasonality and the foreclosure tsunami hit at the same time then the coming season will give new meaning to the word “fall”.
TJ, that won’t happen because a moratorium will be declared under the guise of a stimulus. I’ve been waiting for this market to fall so we all can get on with our lives. At this rate, the can will need to be replaced because it has been kicked so much.
How about price? Do you have any stats on how much the closed sale prices have dropped from Q3 to Q4 over the last few years?
More stagnation ahead, lovely.
I was driving around Solana again yesterday, this time West of the 5. I must have seen one for sale sign for every 10-15 houses. This baffled me, as I’ve been watching Solana on Redfin for quite some time and I never saw these properties listed. I came home and checked Redfin again. Sure enough, I didn’t see half of the places with signs in their yards listed on Redfin. What gives? And wtf is up with that many houses being for sale? If this years chart ends up looking like those of years passed I hope they don’t plan on relocating soon.
Houses with a $1MM sticker price are asking < $3k a month for rent. I swear this world makes no sense at times.
Houses with a $1MM sticker price are asking < $3k a month for rent. I swear this world makes no sense at times.
I have a friend living in an ocean view house in Del Mar, west of I-5 – the landlord considered selling it, but decided to rent it – for just under $3k. The price tag was set to be about 1.5M.
Of course the landlord paid a LOT less than a mill for it 20 years ago. So the house is paid for and taxes are low…
I suspect a lot of the high end rentals are similar… the owner doesn’t need rent to cover the current price.
Jim, Great point. There in the land of eternal summer, people tend forget there are seasons. Here in the East, housing is highly seasonal. Arguably, some of the natural reasons for seasonality aren’t present there (snow, etc.), but some of the others are (school schedules, holidays, etc.)
Houses with a $1MM sticker price are asking < $3k a month for rent. I swear this world makes no sense at times.
If that is true, then we will definitely see more homeowners in distress. I’m talking about those that bought in 2008 thinking the market would rebound, but ended up having to rent at a loss. I know a few who purchased in 2008 that ended up putting the property up for rental. If they didn’t put enough down then they have to be at at least $500 to $1000 short on their mortgage. A $600K house in my are can only rent for about 2K per month so even if they put 20% down, they would be in a world of hurt.
I think these days, a lot of places that are renting for less than you think they would be are not due to people who’ve owned the place for a long time and own it free and clear, but instead are people who don’t want to lose the house in foreclosure but can’t sell it for less than they owe so they are taking the loss a month at a time instead of all at once and either have to come up with cash at closing, do a short sale, or take the hit to their credit due to a foreclosure. Now, many of these folks might give up the place to the bank if they lose a tenant and can’t find another quickly.
December and January are the best months to buy. From Thanksgiving to Super Bowl Sunday, sales are in hibernation. Even in good times.
After looking and waiting for six months, on Superbowl eve we saw a property just listed on the MLS that evening. We saw the house, put in an offer, got a counter from the seller Superbowl morning, we countered their offer and the owner accepted all before kickoff. There was a constant stream of drive-buys even three mos after the purchase. That being said, the fact that my wife met and was able to talk with the owner for a brief moment is what really closed the deal. On one hand timing allowed us to purchase this house in one day. On the other hand market timing as almost chewed up our down payment. There is a foreclosure in my hood that I’m keeping my eyes on which will be the latest comp when it sells. Will we still be down 12% or drop to 15% bahhhhh.