Nothing-Burger

Written by Jim the Realtor

July 23, 2009

The Union-Tribune has Dataquick’s June, and 2Q09, foreclosure data in this article:

http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/jul/23/sd-county-foreclosures-soar-66/

Hopes that a recent rise in San Diego County home prices would signal an end to the housing slump were tempered yesterday when MDA DataQuick reported that foreclosures in June surged nearly 66 percent over the previous month.

The report also found that the rate of foreclosure continues to rise in higher-priced coastal areas, such as Point Loma, Coronado and Solana Beach. The bulk of foreclosures, however, continue to be concentrated in inland, entry-level areas, such as Encanto, Chula Vista, Otay Ranch, Spring Valley and North Oceanside.

DataQuick reported 1,630 countywide foreclosures for June, compared with 985 in May. It was the single greatest monthly increase since December 2007. However, the June count was down by 11 percent from a year ago.

For the second quarter of 2009, there were 3,518 foreclosures in the county, a 14 percent rise over the previous quarter but a 27 percent decline from the second quarter of 2008.

DataQuick tallied 3,436 June notices of default, which begin the foreclosure process. It marked a 12 percent increase over May and an 11 percent increase over June 2008.

In the article, they have a chart that ranks each zip code based on how it’s 2Q09 foreclosure data compared to the average of the previous four quarters.  Nowhere do they mention that almost 3/4s of the zips had a decline in their quarterly foreclosure data, comparatively:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/images/090722for.pdf

The U-T must be light on shock-value news today.

16 Comments

  1. Nathan

    http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-hamptons-real-estate-market-following-manhattan-into-the-tank-2009-7
    Hamptons Real Estate Market Following Manhattan Into The Tank

    Henry Blodget
    Jul. 23, 2009, 6:15 AM

    Don’t haul out the tiny violins because the median house price is still $4 million, but the Hamptons real-estate market seems poised for a major crash.

    Prices haven’t collapsed yet (down a modest 9% year-over-year), but the market has effectively frozen, with inventory climbing 46% in Q2 to a 4-year supply. Those who don’t have to sell won’t, but those who want to sell–a group that includes a lot of reasonable people who are currently in denial–will soon be cutting prices.

  2. tj and the bear

    9% down to a $4M median? That’s still a ~$400K median loss — ouch!

  3. Chuck Ponzi

    TJ,

    That’s less than a single year’s bonus for those guys. I doubt they’re really worried about 9%.

    Chuck

  4. sdbri

    Exactly, the rise is a flat out lie. An upward revision of a decline is not a rise in sales. It’s just a revision in predictions.

  5. Mozart

    sdbri- read the article. You’ll see sales rose. The U/T is carrying a similar story from Associated Press.

    From CNN: “Sales of existing homes disappointed again in June, coming in at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.89 million, up just 3.6% compared with May,…”

    What?

    Here’s the link to the AP story: http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/jul/23/us-home-sales-072309/

  6. JordanT

    Sales rose MOM, but this doesn’t say much as sales typically rise from May to June due to seasonality. Sales were down YOY versus June 2008.

  7. doughboy

    the stock market just hit 9000 today so there will be some new money coming into home buying game

  8. Mozart

    JordanT is right; in June 2008 there were 4.9 million homes sold, June 2009 was 4.89 million home sales. A drop of less than 1%, (.2041%).

  9. shadash

    “June 2008 there were 4.9 million homes sold, June 2009 was 4.89 million home sales. A drop of less than 1%, (.2041%).”

    But, how much equity was lost? Will next year continue the trend?

  10. JordanT

    JordanT is right; in June 2008 there were 4.9 million homes sold, June 2009 was 4.89 million home sales. A drop of less than 1%

    I never said it was all that significant, my point was that home sales dropped or were flat is a more accurate statement about the market than they rose 3.5% for the reasons I gave above.

  11. JAP

    That foreclosure chart is starting to mirror the Alt-A/Option ARM recast chart that Jim put up a while back.

    If the trend continues to mirror that chart, it’s only going to get much worse from here.

  12. Jim the Realtor

    1. Don’t believe anything NAR says.

    2. When you hear them talking about “4.9 million annualized sales”, all they are talking about is their guess at where 2009 sales will end up.

    There isn’t a more ridiculous piece of data than the NAR’s “annualized sales”. WHO CARES ABOUT THEIR GUESS AT 2009 SALES – IT TELLS YOU NOTHING.

  13. Myriad

    Well, looks like the NTS are down due to the moratoriums, but NODs are up. I’ll admit from looking at data and at open houses/MLS, its really hard to tell what’s going on. But you always have to wonder when you read stuff like Rich’s on VoSD.

    http://voiceofsandiego.org/toscano/

  14. CA renter

    That was excellent, wawawa. Good to see this getting some mainstream press. We need to keep this front-and-center in the public eye.

    Everyone, please write, call, and e-mail your representatives and ask them to support Ron Paul’s quest to investigate the Fed.

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