For home buyers who don’t mind paying retail, I have good news for you. There is no shortage of retail-priced listings, there are plenty of choices!
With anticipation of a foreclosure cascade to begin next month, most buyers are reluctant to buy anything today, unless it’s an obvious deal. Won’t there be better deals, later?
There should be, and the rest of the year is fairly predictable.
To help our buyers, we’ve compiled the ‘Most Likely to be a Deal’ list for the remainder of 2009.
For Carmel Valley buyers looking to spend less than $1,200,000:
127 detached homes for sale under $1.2 million on MLS.
58 of those have been on the market sixty days or longer.
33 of those have at least 10% equity.
Because the newly-listed sellers are too optimistic, and those with no equity don’t have any choice but to hold out for retail, we can set aside those for now. We’ll keep a close eye out for listings that might get their price right, but the chances of that are remote. Most CV agents are in complete denial of current market conditions, and continue to push retail, or retail-plus listings onto the market.
Instead of having to sort through all 127, we can work the list of 33, and add to it the 66 SFRs on the foreclosure list, including NODs, NOTs, and REOs.
For the buyers who’d like to find a deal this year under $1,200,000 in Carmel Valley, there are 99 properties that could fit the bill.
We split them further into two lists; 46 that are over 2,800sf, and 53 that are under 2,800sf.
Any new NODs coming on this year will have 6-8 months of processing, so they’ll be lining up for next year’s inventory, and so will those with little or no equity.
It is very frustrating for buyers to have to be patient, but at least we’re likely to be at the peak of the selling season right about now. In the next few weeks there should be some sellers starting to inch closer to the exits, nervous that their confident list price might be wrong after all.
If we can help manage and organize the homes for sale into those that are ‘most likely to be a deal’, it should help make the search more tolerable, and hopefully fruitful.
Let me know if you’d like a copy – Carmel Valley is done, and Carlsbad and Encinitas are next.
Must be nice to even think about buying a million dollar home.My price range is less than 100k.I am cutting back on expenses around here.Verizon has me by the balls on my cell phone.Looking into metro pcs now.Been shopping at dollar tree and walmart.Those cashiers at walmart are quite the hotties.I cannot even think about having a cold beer unless it is happy hour.5 dollar pints are ridiculous.
33/127 homes under $1.2 have at least 10% equity, means 94/127 homes have less than 10% equity. It’s no surprise that 58 have been on the market sixty days or longer, because with almost no equity they’re forced to sell at 2004 and 2005 prices.
This is obvious when you look at condo complexes, where inferior units are priced up to 20% higher than even *superior* units. The simple difference is the inferior units have no equity and are unwilling to short sell. They simply can’t lower their price because foreclosing or short selling would be clearly preferable. Needless to say, one sold at $410K while three higher priced ones have been on the market for 2 months, 5 months, and 6 months.
The three are left are priced $495K, $429K, and $570K for 1350 sqft 2br and $300 monthly fees. There were other units but they were taken off the market with no offers. The $570K is much worse than one that was offered for a fully upgraded $490K and taken off the market and is higher than peak bubble prices!
When condos are being offered at higher than 2005/2006 prices, that means they’re waiting for a sucker to come along. Good luck!
I probably should have been more clear but the four condos I was talking about were all identical floor plans. One of them only shows pictures from the outside, which is always a bad sign. The reason is they half literally the left half of the house done in one tile, the right half done in a different time – one giant crack down the middle. Oh and the stairs are tiled. Whoever did this job didn’t cut a single tile – the tiles overhang every stair and is why there’s a crevice running down the middle of the house.
Condos that are selling seem to be around $320/sq ft give or take. What does that put them at in terms of prices? 2002? 2003?
The Crest Del Mar units (the ones sdbri) is talking about, seem nice but are awfully close to El Camino (noisy).
What I don’t get is why people are paying such high prices for these condos. It boggles my mind that Pell Place units have actually closed at $363/sq ft or $342/sq ft. That’s just nuts. Though the prices are starting to come down. One closed a few days ago at $333/sq ft.
Some of the association fees on condos are a joke.They stick you with 300-400/ month to maintain.I wouldn’t be caught dead in a condo.
It’s all about customer needs, arizonadude – not everybody wants a house they have to maintain, for one example. Condos are less expensive and much more manageable than houses. The HOAs can be seen as reasonable if you consider what it would cost of the same level of amenities/maintenance in a house.
Still, the price points are nuts. Some of these condos are listing in the $400+/sq ft range and they’re old and ugly.
In the next few weeks there should be some sellers starting to inch closer to the exits, nervous that their confident list price might be wrong after all.
Jim,
I’m curious into this statement. Is this a gut feel or is something happening that I missed you blogging on?
Thanks in advance.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
My HOA fees are $75. For an extra $325 – $425 +/- I can have a full service gardener and maintenance person to fix odds and ends.
Neil,
As I read it, Jim seemed to tie it seasonal timing–we’re nearing the peak of the selling season; therefore some sellers will start to panic since they’ve not yet sold in the “hot” time–and it’ll be even harder as the market cools.
I went to pick up my kid yesterday in CV and drove around a block of 30 or so houses with 4 for sale. I’m thinking to myself, how many years will it be before 4 parties show up to pay a million bucks for these? They’re older houses, pre-stucco, and noone in the ‘hood has seen fit to paint in the past 25 years. That’s what puzzles me in the northern part of CV, everyone thinks their house is worth a million dollars, but nobody will bother to pay a few thousand bucks to paint the trim. WTF?
Neil,
Shoppingaround pegged it, the sellers will try and juggle their ego telling them they “don’t have to sell”, and “not giving it away”, with the fact that they’ve been on the market for months and nobody’s made an offer yet – all while reading that sales are up and we’re past the bottom.
But the ego is a powerful thing, and the majority will not lower their price enough to sell, and they’ll end up not selling instead.
To answer specifically, gut feel.
Jim and Shopping around,
Thanks. Since this thread has gone stale, I’ll post again elsewhere. I was not considering the ‘ego side’ of selling.
Neil