With anticipation of a foreclosure cascade to begin next month, most buyers are reluctant to buy anything today, unless it’s an obvious deal. Won’t there be better deals, later?
There should be, and the rest of the year is fairly predictable.
To help our buyers, we’ve compiled the ‘Most Likely to be a Deal’ list for the remainder of 2009.
For Carmel Valley buyers looking to spend less than $1,200,000:
127 detached homes for sale under $1.2 million on MLS.
58 of those have been on the market sixty days or longer.
33 of those have at least 10% equity.
Because the newly-listed sellers are too optimistic, and those with no equity don’t have any choice but to hold out for retail, we can set aside those for now. We’ll keep a close eye out for listings that might get their price right, but the chances of that are remote. Most CV agents are in complete denial of current market conditions, and continue to push retail, or retail-plus listings onto the market.
Instead of having to sort through all 127, we can work the list of 33, and add to it the 66 SFRs on the foreclosure list, including NODs, NOTs, and REOs.
For the buyers who’d like to find a deal this year under $1,200,000 in Carmel Valley, there are 99 properties that could fit the bill.
We split them further into two lists; 46 that are over 2,800sf, and 53 that are under 2,800sf.
Any new NODs coming on this year will have 6-8 months of processing, so they’ll be lining up for next year’s inventory, and so will those with little or no equity.
It is very frustrating for buyers to have to be patient, but at least we’re likely to be at the peak of the selling season right about now. In the next few weeks there should be some sellers starting to inch closer to the exits, nervous that their confident list price might be wrong after all.
If we can help manage and organize the homes for sale into those that are ‘most likely to be a deal’, it should help make the search more tolerable, and hopefully fruitful.
Let me know if you’d like a copy – Carmel Valley is done, and Carlsbad and Encinitas are next.