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A hearty THANK YOU goes out to Rob Dawg for minding the store this week. A spirited discussion throughout, with 185 comments left!

The most intriguing was the last post, where he noted – like Rich did – the divergence between average list and sold pricing on a $-per-sf basis.

A few commentors suggested that the upper-end market was the likely culprit. Here’s a check:

Carlsbad to La Jolla New Listings over $1,500,000 entered between April 1 – May 15:

Year # of listings LP Avg. $/sf % closed SP Avg. $/sf
2003
146
$586/sf
50%
$538/sf
2004
236
$633
57%
$593
2005
211
$724
51%
$676
2006
268
$666
34%
$580
2007
254
$723
36%
$617
2008
258
$813
22%
$678
2009
261
$837
16%
$637

Because only one of the 2009 listings has closed so far, I used the overall number closed, 42, between April 1 – May 15 of this year.

The ‘percentage closed’ helps show the struggle this market is having. At the peak about half of these listings were closing, but now there are 5-6 new listings coming on the market every day, and only about one closing per day.

The backlog of high-end listings doesn’t seem to phase the sellers/agents either.

Currently there are 883 ACTIVE listings over $1,500,000 between Carlsbad and La Jolla. The list prices on average are $887/sf, and average market time is 118 days.

But check this – in April there were 30 closings, the same one-a-day pace, but their list prices averaged $568/sf, and closed at an average of $510/sf. So the 12 properties that have closed in May that averaged $959/sf have skewed the chart’s 2009 number quite a bit higher.

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