The sellers in Rancho Santa Fe have been holding strong, but there have been some inching closer to the exits, led by the banks.
First those on the outskirts:
| Street Address | Previous Sales Price/Date | Current List Price | % below last SP |
| 7819 Cam De La Dora | |||
| 6973 Corte Lusso | |||
| 17466 Luna De Miel | |||
| 16501 Via Lago Azul |
*Amount of mortgage lent, later foreclosed
*******************************************************************
“But Jim, those aren’t the Covenant!!! There’s a difference!!!!!!!!”
Oh really? The Covenant has its own cracks in the armor:
| Street Address | Previous Sales Price/Date | Current List Price | % below last SP |
| 5840 Lago Lindo | |||
| 6368 La Valle Plateada | |||
| 17925 Avenida Alondra |
There are 324 active listings of detached homes in 92067 and 92091, a number that has been growing all year.
Last month, TEN closed escrow!
Rancho Santa Fe sellers – you should lower your price!
(hat tip to Aztec)
Thirty-two months of inventory is telling you flat out that prices are too high. Economics 101 tells you that if prices are too high and life events happen (deaths, divorces, medical problems, etc.), prices will end up falling. It’s only a question of when, not if. The smart people will sell before the downward spiral sets in.
So, a 32.4 to 1 ratio of active listings to sold properties-or more than two and a half year’s worth of inventory. That’s got to hurt.
Imagine three hundred listings with a note like this at the bottom:
On Redfin: 972 days
Unsold in 90+ days
Jim,
Can you give us some general numbers vis HOAs and Mello-Roos for the areas you cover?
Specifically, I’m wondering if some fees/rates are attached to the lot and don’t go down because of the sales price.
Dwip,
“The smart people will sell before the downward spiral sets in.”
They’ll need a time machine for that!
I don’t think I’ve ever seen a development in San Diego county where the HOA or M-R fees vary by sales price. I’ve seen M-R vary by square feet, but that’s about it.
Usually HOA and M-R fees are set at the time the home is sold new, though HOA fees can rise and fall (yeah right) at the whim of the HOA board.
Finally, I can get a place in the Covenant for $2.2MM!
Nice percentage drops!!!
Even though it’s cracking, the armor is still there. You don’t generally get into a place that expensive without having some resources. I expect there’s a lot more would-be sellers holding out simply because they can (and wrongly assume it’s a passing storm).
p.s.: The prop. 13 sales-price reassessment on these things is going to slay Sacramento.
Zero hedge examines NOD data and predicts more trouble, especially in the high end > $750k loans. See last chart at the link:
“But this time around the mix has changed. Mid-to-upper end loans — and homes attached to them — are going into the foreclosure process at the greatest rate ever. The following chart shows defaults on loans over $750k. This is trouble because the demand in the segment of the market is outpaced by foreclosure supply alone”
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/california-foreclosures-about-to-soar.html
Now if the sellers in Cbad would get a clue. 600K+ for a 1999 2K sq foot house with no yard = smoking crack.
Carlsbad Statistics (Single Family–all 4 zips)
I think the sellers in Carlsbad have been doing an excellent job pricing–in the last 3 months, 123 properties have closed escrow at 96% of asking price at a average price per sqft of $280 and 70 days on the market average (42 median)–not bad. 409 active listings with less than 3 months average market time, 155 houses currently in escrow with 52 days on the market average–Fairly healthy market–2.6 ratio of active/pending (single family).
local boy – they may have priced to attract some of the knifers out there, but still crack prices based on one data point (aka common sense), how many familys in cbad pull in 200K a year to truly afford the 600K+ homes that sill need work. I’ll see you in late 2010 for the same homes at 480Kish