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Category Archive: ‘Interest Rates/Loan Limits’

Rate Report

Mortgage rates continued higher today, further extending the push into fresh 15-month highs confirmed on Friday.   The secondary mortgage market didn’t lose any ground by the end of the session, but volatility trading conditions during the day, along with other factors, kept lenders more defensive (in that rates are higher than they would be if markets were FLAT at current levels).

The weakness wasn’t enough to change the Conventional 30yr Fixed best-execution rate of 4.125% (with no points), but it should be noted that there is a wider than normal discrepancy between lenders in terms of how rate sheets have changed from one day to the next.

Just as the pendulum pushed far to the positive side of the rate range in April, the opposite swing occurred in May (now the worst single month for rates on record since 2008).

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/312099.aspx

Posted by on Jun 10, 2013 in Interest Rates/Loan Limits | 1 comment

Rising Rates To Fuel Market?

From the latimes.com:

Mortgage rates have risen half a percentage point since setting record lows last fall, and many economists expect them to continue rising for the foreseeable future.

The increase, a reaction to the improving economy and housing markets, could fuel already hot housing markets as potential home buyers look to seal a deal before rates rise any further.

“I think rates will drift slowly higher,” said economist Christopher Thornberg, head of the West L.A. consulting firm Beacon Economics. The increases might add as much as 1 percentage point to mortgage rates by the end of next year, he said. “But within these ranges, home prices are still cheap compared to incomes and apartments.”

risingratesIn a weekly survey of what lenders are offering to solid borrowers, Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the average rate for a 30-year fixed loan rose from 3.59% last week to 3.81% early this week. It was the highest in more than a year, contrasting with the record low of 3.31% set last fall.

The rates remain extraordinarily low by historical standards. The typical rate exceeded 16% during inflationary times in 1981 and 1982, Freddie Mac’s records show, and the annual average topped 8% as recently as 2000.

The higher rates have arrived as rising home prices and the slowly improving economy also are delivering some good news for mortgage borrowers, who are being offered a wider range of loans on somewhat easier terms these days. That’s allowing buyers without 20% down payments to avoid private mortgage insurance, and family members to sign on as co-borrowers without living in the homes, mortgage brokers say.

Easing lending standards have made it more possible for homeowners to tap into their rising equity. And home equity lines of credit, hard to come by after the housing crash, are now offered again by many lenders reassured by recent increases in home prices.

More here:

http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-mortgage-rates-20130531,0,3499962.story

Posted by on Jun 3, 2013 in Frenzy, Interest Rates/Loan Limits | 5 comments

NSDCC 4Q12 Was Cooking

With the sales over the first three quarters of 2012 being very active (+17% YOY), and a presidential election bearing down on us, it would have made sense to expect a quieter 4Q12. But instead, it was as hot as a pistol around NSDCC.

Here is how 4Q12 compared to 4Q11 in each area:

Town or Area 4Q11 Sales LP Avg $/sf 4Q12 Sales SP Avg $/sf
Cardiff
18
$403/sf
24
$473/sf
Carlsbad
216
$256/sf
317
$274/sf
Carmel Vly
101
$309/sf
110
$329/sf
Del Mar
27
$672/sf
46
$700/sf
Encinitas
86
$367/sf
125
$362/sf
La Jolla
70
$602/sf
101
$718/sf
RSF
40
$428/sf
58
$437/sf
Solana Bch
24
$444/sf
25
$488/sf
NSDCC
582
$367/sf
806
$399/sf

A strong improvement in most areas, and the 806 overall sales were the most in a fourth quarter since 2003! There is substantial momentum coming into this year, but it won’t mean much if there aren’t enough sellers to satisfy what appears to be a fairly healthy demand.

Mortgage rates will be a factor, but as long as they are in the 3s, buyers will stay engaged – since rates dipped under 4%, the market has been in full-tilt-boogie mode.  Note the 3/4% increase between October, 2010 and February, 2011:

Posted by on Jan 4, 2013 in Interest Rates/Loan Limits, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

Mortgage Rates Rise

The biggest concern about mortgage rates is that they can go up without notice, leaving sellers wishing that they woulda, coulda, shoulda sold when they had the chance.  From MND:

Mortgage rates soared to their highest levels in months today after Minutes from the Fed’s most recent policy meeting showed the board to be more divided concerning the continuation of its most recent round of quantitative easing, dubbed QE4.  It’s not that markets think that The Fed’s purchases of MBS (the “mortgage backed securities” that most directly influence mortgage rates) or Treasuries will be stopping any time soon, but however long a particular market participant thought that QE would continue, that time frame was either shortened or called into question after today’s data.  

That led to major selling pressure in bond markets, including MBS.  It’s as if MBS got a call from their rich uncle saying “hey there sport…  Um, yeah….  about those checks I’ve been sending you… you know, the ones you count on to subsidize your fast-paced lifestyle?  Yeah… just a heads up that I’m not super sure that I’ll be able to send those for the whole year… just wanted to let you know because I know you were kinda maybe planning on that being an ‘all-year’ sorta thing.  Well, it’s been a good talk!  Gotta go!”

30yr Fixed Best-Execution–after having been firmly planted at 3.375%–has risen to 3.5% at several lenders, however, lower rates are still available.  They’re just going to cost a lot more today than they did yesterday.

The show’s not over either!  Tomorrow morning brings the all-important Employment Situation Report.  This is always the single most important piece of economic data each month.  While we’d recently wondered if its traditional impact would be lessened by the focus on the Fiscal Cliff deal reaction, it’s now looking to be just as important as ever considering that employment metrics are a lynchpin for Fed policy changes (and markets clearly showed us today how very interested they are in Fed policy changes).  

After feeling like we just dodged a Fiscal Cliff bullet yesterday, today’s losses come a serious blindside to anyone who’d floated a rate with more optimism.  If tomorrow’s jobs data is much stronger than expected, the pain will only continue.

Buyers aren’t going to freak out over 1/8%, but they might pause to see what happens next.  Mortgage rates are like the price of gasoline though – they are known for going up faster than they come down.

Posted by on Jan 3, 2013 in Interest Rates/Loan Limits, Mortgage News | 3 comments

QE3 To Help Housing

The third round of quantitative easing will raise the stock market by 3.1% and home prices by nearly 2%, assuming the program lasts through 2013, researchers at Deutsche Bank assert.

But not everyone agrees that the move with translate to helping the average American.

The Federal Reserve’s purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities will sum to $800 billion by the end of the year. The researchers say the purchases will hold longer-term Treasury yields about 50 basis points lower than they would otherwise.

“These financial market effects should eventually be passed through to more than a 0.6% boost to the level of gross domestic product over the next two years, enough to add about 500,000 jobs and reduce the unemployment rate by 0.3% points,” Deutsche Bank said in a research note.

But Deutsche Bank cautions that the expected impact of QE3 is dependent on the fraction of outstanding MBS the Fed ultimately purchases. Increased MBS issuance could suppress the impact of QE3 on the economy, although the Fed would certainly be willing to live with this outcome.

James Frischling, president and co-founder of NewOak Capital said the bond-buying programs and low interest rates hasn’t proven effective at generating the type of growth that can bring down unemployment, but it certainly has fueled a turnaround in the housing market.

“Expect this next round of bond-buying to do more of the same,” Frischling said.

And Christopher Whalen with Tangent Capital Partners feels the two thirds of the mortgage market that cannot refinance their homes will be unaffected by QE3.

The researchers at Deutsche Bank agree with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s assessment that the economic benefit of QE3 is not a panacea.  Still, an improved outlook for growth and earnings and lower borrowing costs should encourage business investment.

“However, even if QE3 is able to generate a substantial improvement in growth and earnings prospects and a reduction in borrowing costs, it is likely that its impact on business investment is dominated by the significant uncertainty ahead regarding the debt ceiling, fiscal cliff and Europe,” the researchers say.

http://www.housingwire.com/news/deutsche-bank-qe3-will-lift-stock-market-3-home-prices-2

Posted by on Oct 1, 2012 in Interest Rates/Loan Limits | 0 comments

GOP Platform on Real Estate

From NMN:

The new platform of the Republican Party calls for downsizing the Federal Housing Administration mortgage insurance program and winding down the “size and scope” of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s secondary market activities.

“The FHA, which tripled in size to more than $1 trillion under the current administration, has crowded out the private sector and is at risk of requiring a taxpayer bailout,” says the GOP platform statement released midweek in Tampa. “It must be downsized and limited to helping first-time homeowners and low- and moderate-income borrowers.”

But the GOP statement of principles offers no specifics on how Fannie and Freddie should be “wound down.”

America Enterprise Institute resident fellow Edward Pinto told National Mortgage News that House Republicans have approved a fiscal year 2013 budget that calls for placing a cap on GSE loan limits. (Pinto is at the convention.)

“Such a policy would reduce the number of loans the entities could back, naturally shrinking their market share,” the budget document says.

Pinto noted that it would take an act of Congress to reduce Fannie and Freddie’s loan limit.

He and two of his AEI colleagues have recommended a gradual reduction in the GSEs’ loan limits, currently capped at $625,500.

“Fannie and Freddie’s loan limits should be reduced over time. This will lead to them being phased out so that the private sector can take on more of the secondary market as the GSEs withdraw,” Pinto said. “That will lead to a solid robust housing market,” he added.

On the MID:

In a series of ads in Tampa this week, the National Association of Home Builders has been trying to send a message about the real estate industry’s clout to convention-goers.  “The road to the White House will be a driveway,” read one ad, which appeared in a special Tampa edition of The Hill. “Housing = Jobs.”

In big letters, the ad cited polling research that found that 68% of voters would be less likely to vote for a candidate who proposed eliminating the mortgage interest deduction.

While Romney has vowed to maintain the deduction, he reportedly has also told donors that he would limit its application on second homes, and he would also limit the deduction for state and local property taxes.

The Republican Party platform, released Tuesday, did not contain language that was included in the party’s 2008 platform about the value of preserving the mortgage interest deduction.  The decision to exclude that language reportedly came after former Sen. Jim Talent, a Romney adviser, argued that specific provisions on the tax code would get in the way of a budget deal.

Posted by on Aug 30, 2012 in Interest Rates/Loan Limits, Local Government | 4 comments

JtR Sign in the AP

From the Associated Press:

WASHINGTON —Average rates on fixed mortgages rose this week, the first increase in seven weeks. But mortgage rates remain near historic lows, boosting prospects for home sales this year.

Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday that the average rate on the 30-year loan increased to 3.71 percent. That’s up from 3.67 percent last week, the lowest since long-term mortgages began in the 1950s.

The average rate on the 15-year mortgage, a popular refinancing option, rose to 2.98 percent. That’s up from 2.94 percent last week, also a record low.

Read More

Posted by on Jun 14, 2012 in Interest Rates/Loan Limits | 12 comments

Higher Rates = Lower Prices?

I have been converting to a new computer, and it caused an accidental cancellation of the previous post and comments.  Here is a repeat of the post, the comments were great from what I remember!

A few people who stopped by the booth over the weekend were happy to chime in that they are waiting for rates to go up, because then home prices will tumble another 10% to 20%.

But as we’ve been discussing,  potential sellers are already holding out for higher prices, by need or by choice. 

Rising mortgage rates would cause more standoff in the short-term, and the only hope for buyers would be for those underwater homeowners to concede, and finally surrender.  But the banks could kick the can further by utilizing a combination of free rent and short sales, so any spikes in new distressed inventory would be measured.

Some would suggest that logically the overall economy would have to improve substantially before rates would rise.  But I think a bump of 1% or so could happen without notice, and the Fed powers be somewhat limited to correct it.

Mortgage rates went up 1.5% between October, 1998 and May, 2000, so a big jolt to rates isn’t out of the question:

But what today’s potential sellers would do about higher rates appears to be predictable:  Nothing.

If folks haven’t bailed out from being underwater, then they probably won’t care about what rate the buyer is getting.  If they’ve hung on this long, a bump in mortgage rates would likely strength their determination to wait it out.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A longer-term inventory question will be how to resolve the houses once baby boomers are done with them – when they either pass away, or move on to the rest home.

Do the heirs sell them, or move in and spend another generation?  These houses will be in the best locations, but typically in need of substantial repairs and updating.  It’s doubtful that there will be a tsunami, but this category could become the #1 source of sellers over the next 5-20 years.

Posted by on Jun 6, 2012 in Interest Rates/Loan Limits, Market Conditions | 18 comments

Relationship: Prices and Rates

Hat tip to Booty Juice for supplying more evidence on the impact of mortgage rates on home prices.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/278146-interest-rates-do-not-affect-home-prices

An excerpt:

At first glance, this is one of those things that makes perfect sense:  The same mortgage payment translates to a larger loan value when rates are low. But how does this hold up under statistical scrutiny?

The answer shocked me: They don’t. In fact, history shows the exact opposite is true.

Home prices tend to go up with interest rates:

How Is This Possible? There are two things I can think of to explain what we’re seeing. Either interest rates don’t matter as much as other factors in determining housing prices and the correlation is merely coincidence; or, higher rates harbor, or are harbored in, conditions that favor housing.

The first case isn’t too difficult to imagine. There are many factors that can affect housing: personal income, general economic conditions, supply vs. demand, family formation, population growth, technological innovations like the automobile that enabled suburbia, and so forth. Interest rate consequences can easily be lost in the mix. Maybe, if all other factors were held constant, we’d see a negative relationship to validate conventional wisdom.

The second case is more difficult to explain. Can high rates actually benefit housing prices? High interest rates provide incentive to save. More savings mean healthier consumer balance sheets, better credit and more equity to put down on a home. So higher rates should influence the relative mix between debt and equity capital, but it doesn’t necessarily influence total asset prices.

Click here for more: 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/278146-interest-rates-do-not-affect-home-prices

JtR:  The 1998-2007 mega-boom was fueled by several additional factors besides improving rates – more favorable taxation that encouraged flippers, exotic neg-am terms with fog-a-mirror qualifying, and 100% financing.

Posted by on Feb 3, 2012 in Interest Rates/Loan Limits, Market Conditions | 17 comments