San Diego Case-Shiller Forecast
The non-seasonally-adjusted Case-Shiller Index for San Diego rose again in October:
Oct. 2011: 152.86
Sep. 2012; 160.09
Oct. 2012: 162.10
It was the ninth monthly increase in a row, and the year-over-year improvement of +6% is the biggest we’ve seen lately.
Those thinking of selling in early-2013 have to be licking their chops. But wait until they see the next Case-Shiller reading, which will be released on January 29th, the week of the Super Bowl.
The Case-Shiller Index is a three-month weighed average, and we already know that September and October’s readings were well above those from 2012. But November’s stats blew away the field – Dataquick reported that the San Diego Y-O-Y average $/sf rose 10.6% in November.
The CSI does purge some of the most vital data (flippers turning in less than six months, etc.) but with our November sales and pricing both substantially improved over the previous month, the next Case-Shiller reading should provide great banter for Super Bowl parties throughout the county.
As a result, expect that grossly-overpriced listings will be hitting the market in February. If the current buyer discipline stays on track, we will experience a sparse beginning to the selling season. See the graphs in the right-hand column. >>>>
Realtors will be falling back on the only closing line they have ever known, “buy now or be priced out forever” and some uneducated buyers could get sucked in and pay too much if they only read the soundbites.
Can we count on our leaders to direct us? Here is a quote from the UT, in response to San Diego having the second-highest gain the country:
“Phoenix went through a real difficult time where their values really, really went down, but it’s certainly been rebounding” said Donna Sanfilippo, president of the San Diego Association of Realtors. “San Diego, being a steadier market, placing No. 2 in rebounding shows that we’re leading our area after what has been a couple of rough years.”
…we’re leading our area??
Expect more of the same from NAR and CAR too – vague innuendos that won’t say it directly, but imply that everything is fine, go ahead and buy. But based on the graphs, it doesn’t look like buyers are going for it, so the early-spring sales are likely to be very disappointing.