The latest Zillow 1-Year Forecasted Values are still expecting a fairly strong appreciation rate over the next year. In May, they were guessing +19% or more in all areas, so this looks like a soft landing:
NW Carlsbad, 92008:
SE Carlsbad, 92009:
NE Carlsbad, 92010:
SW Carlsbad, 92011:
Carmel Valley, 92130:
Del Mar, 92014:
Encinitas, 92024:
La Jolla:
Rancho Santa Fe, 92067:
They do have website-viewer data that nobody else has, and hopefully they are using it to track the activity and make predictions.
Wait, what? I thought pricing was supposed to drop year over year? I was thinking pricing would drop 10% or so?
Wait, what? I thought pricing was supposed to drop year over year? I was thinking pricing would drop 10% or so?
Do you know a home seller who will sell for 10% less? I can’t think of one, and I talk to my share!
A 5-10% drop is already underway in San Diego, next month we can see where we are. I imagine it will be lower.
But so many of my friends swear this is the beginning of a big bear real estate market. Prices must come down 50% like in 2008.
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You don’t have to listen to me – believe what you want to believe.
All that matters is what happens in Feb/Mar, 2023. Until then, the market will be written off to the adjustment period.
Will sellers hold out, or give them away next spring?
There is an easy marker until then.
If NSDCC monthly sales drop down to around 100 per month, we’re in big trouble.
If they can hang around 200 per month, then all the affluent people are giving up hope and just paying what it takes to get a winner.