How are those expert opinions doing?
Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae, was acknowledged as the best forecaster in America last year when he was honored with the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy, one of the best-known and longest-standing achievements in economic forecasting.
The winner is selected based on the accuracy of forecasts published in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter, compiled and edited by Haver Analytics, Inc. “It is a real honor for the Fannie Mae forecast team to be recognized with the Lawrence R. Klein Award,” said Duncan.
“The award is based on the smallest average error for GDP, CPI, and unemployment over the past four years,” says Professor of Economics Dennis Hoffman, director of the Office of the University Economist at ASU. “I commend Doug Duncan and his team at Fannie Mae for their remarkable predictions during a period of extensive market fluctuation and instability.”
He predicted we’d be at 4.4% today – the reality:
Perhaps the pendulum has swung too far
What’s crazy is if we go to war in the middle east inflation will go up faster forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interst rates even higher.
Guns or Butter is usually what governments are forced to make a decision between. We’re trying to do Guns and Butter which is causing inflation.
I predicted here at the beginning of the year that rates will go above 8% before December. Time to take credit for it.
Next in line is listing will explode in the next 6 months as all underwater airbnb investments hit the market. There is real pain out there,
Ok you get to be right.
It’s time to get your own blog though.
I predicted 8% on my own blog. Actually I said 8.125-8.25% briefly before settling around a stubborn 8%.
The UK was fun. Didn’t see the Regent this time. They put strange stuff in their gin. Driving on the left wasn’t tough but rowing through a sloppy six speed manual transmission with an under-powered engine using your other hand and driving on the left on insanely narrow winding roads is another story.
“We don’t think it’s going to go much higher,” says Priscilla Almodovar, CEO of mortgage giant Fannie Mae. “The question now is, ‘How long are they going to stay this high?’”
Fannie Mae’s latest forecast calls for rates to dip to 7.3 percent by the end of 2023 and to 6.7 percent at the end of 2024. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s outlook, meanwhile, expects 30-year rates will fall to 7.2 percent by the end of this year and to 6.1 percent next year.
That’s one reason Vishal Garg, CEO of lender Better, believes rates won’t go much higher.
“I think they’ll touch the 8 percent level, and then they’ll come back down,” says Garg.
Currently, the consensus is that rates are unlikely to climb significantly above 8 percent.
However, the continued strength of the U.S. economy has made it less likely that the Federal Reserve will cut rates. Therefore, mortgage rates could stay at these levels for a while, says Dave Liniger, founder of real estate brokerage RE/MAX.
“I don’t believe the Fed has gotten control of inflation yet,” says Liniger. “I would not anticipate interest rates coming back down until election time.”