How are those expert opinions doing?

Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae, was acknowledged as the best forecaster in America last year when he was honored with the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy, one of the best-known and longest-standing achievements in economic forecasting.

The winner is selected based on the accuracy of forecasts published in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter, compiled and edited by Haver Analytics, Inc. “It is a real honor for the Fannie Mae forecast team to be recognized with the Lawrence R. Klein Award,” said Duncan.

“The award is based on the smallest average error for GDP, CPI, and unemployment over the past four years,” says Professor of Economics Dennis Hoffman, director of the Office of the University Economist at ASU. “I commend Doug Duncan and his team at Fannie Mae for their remarkable predictions during a period of extensive market fluctuation and instability.”

He predicted we’d be at 4.4% today – the reality:


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