I doubt we’ll ever see this again.

Even though we’ve had healthy gains in 2023, the YoY declines makes it look like we’re going backwards because the index was rising so quickly last year. Hard to imagine any more MoM gains of 3.8% or 4.6%!

April’s index is about the same as it was in February AND August, 2022.

Going forward, it should settle in to a range of 390-420 for the next couple of years.

However, the view from the ivory tower is that we’ve survived the downturn and we’re fine now. Because the Case-Shiller Index is so dated, he already knows that the next 2-3 months will be positive:

“If I were trying to make a case that the decline in home prices that began in June 2022 had definitively ended in January 2023, April’s data would bolster my argument. Whether we see further support for that view in coming months will depend on the how well the market navigates the challenges posed by current mortgage rates and the continuing possibility of economic weakness.”

My guess is that the second half of 2023 will go back to Plateau City, like it did in 2019:

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, 2019


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