Hat tip to Garry and Rob Dawg who predicted that we’d hit 7% this year, for the first time in over 20 years!
It was in April, 2002 that rates were over 7%, back when the NSDCC median sales price was $635,000. This month it’s $2,075,000!
Rates have never doubled this quickly, and the increase looks like the fastest since 1981:
And it will probably keep going!
Technically I said 6.85% ± 15bps by end of September. Then soon topping 7.25%. I’m not sure we won’t see 7.50% but I’m sticking with 7.25% (±15bps).
I use the mortgage news daily 30y conventional.
Rates will hit 10% after November election and before new year.
The only reason they don’t is if Fed restarts buying MBS.
Never in history has inflation been brought under control with interest rates lower than inflation rates.
Eventually it will dawn at the geniuses at the Fed that rates need to go above inflation rate and a new Fed chairman will take the helm to deliver the harsh medicine. There is no alternative.