Let’s gather the forecasts for 2022 – here’s a start:
|Fannie Mae – USA|
|Freddie Mac – USA|
|MBA – USA|
|NAHB – USA|
|NAR – USA|
|CAR – Calif|
|Zillow – SD|
|CoreLogic – SD|
|JtR – NSDCC|
I had guessed that the NSDCC sales would be +10% this year, and +10% in pricing.
The final 2021 numbers should end up around +7% for sales and +28% in median sales price.
Bill mentioned (below) that if inventory stays low, there will be a larger increase in prices. Conversely, if inventory increases significantly, there will be less price appreciation.
I’m guessing the NSDCC market will enjoy a third option, where the inventory increases just enough to boost the sales AND pricing at the same time.
It is a sweet spot where more inventory doesn’t scare off buyers, and instead soaks up the pent-up demand and provides the comps for a solid 1% to 2% pricing increase per month.
My final guess for 2022: NSDCC will have +5% YoY in sales, and +15% in median sales price.
What do you think? Leave your guess in the comments section!
Click here for the research:
From Bill at CR:
The key in 2022 will be inventory. If inventory stays extremely low, there will be more housing starts and a larger increase in prices. However, if inventory increases significantly, there will be fewer starts and less price appreciation.
Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year.
For comparison, new home sales in 2021 will probably be around 800 thousand, down from 822 thousand in 2020, but up from 683 thousand in 2019.
Total housing starts will be around 1.58 million in 2021, up from 1.38 million in 2020, and up from 1.29 million in 2019. Existing home sales will be around 6.1 million in 2021 , up from 5.64 million in 2020, and 5.34 million in 2019.
As of August, Case-Shiller house prices were up 19.8% year-over-year!
The table below shows a few forecasts for 2022:
We also have the C.A.R. forecast:
A CAR consumer survey showed, for example, that 35% of home sellers are moving out of state and fewer than 15% were moving to a home in the same county as their last residence.
“I think that pressure to migrate out of the state is going to be just as strong, if not stronger, as housing affordability gets worse,” CAR Chief Economist Jordan Levine said. “I think that this is a housing-driven phenomenon, and we don’t have a lot of relief in terms of housing affordability.”
The 2022 median price of a California house, or the price at the midpoint of all sales, will be $834,400, up a mere 5.2% from this year’s projected median of $793,100, according to next year’s forecast.
Price gains have been in the double digits for the past two years, rising 11.3% in 2020, with a projected gain this year of 20.3%. The median price of an existing single-family home has risen more than $200,000 during the past two years, or almost $2,000 a week.
Sales are forecast to decline 5.2% next year, with a total of 416,800 houses changing hands, the forecast said.
Even though sales will go down, next year’s transaction volume should still be the second-highest of the past five years. And it will be slightly higher than the average of 414,000 transactions a year since the housing market began its recovery from the Great Recession in 2012.
“We can’t call this a cool market by any stretch of the imagination,” Levine said. “I would say that it’s gone from white-hot to this kind of a plain old, run-of-the-mill boring red-hot (market) that California usually has, (with) too much demand and not enough supply.”
Plus these local 2022 guesses for the San Diego-Carlsbad metro area (where the typical home value in San Diego has appreciated by 118% since 2012, according to Zillow):
Core-Logic: +2.2% (August to August)