Inventory Watch – Average vs. Median

May 12, 2014

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We are in the prime selling season, so it’s no surprise that inventory has grown since the beginning of the year.

But look at the average pricing. The Under-$800,000 list pricing has creeped up 4%, but the higher-priced categories are going in the other direction.

Since January 1st, the Over-$2,400,000 market has seen the inventory grow by 36%, and the average LP-per-sf drop 10% – and those are the unsold homes. They aren’t done yet!

The median asking prices don’t show the same change, probably because the lower-priced supply in each category is what’s selling. The remaining OPT leftovers keep the median asking prices rising, and new sellers want to price with the actives, not the solds, compounding the situation.

North SD County’s Coastal Region (La Jolla-to-Carlsbad)

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	DOM	Avg SF
November 25	95	$376/sf	47	1,988sf
December 2	79	$371/sf	50	2,047sf
December 9	72	$383/sf	43	1,954sf
December 16	81	$378/sf	42	1,948sf
December 23	77	$374/sf	49	1,937sf
December 30	76	$373/sf	51	1,950sf
January 6	74	$370/sf	49	1,995sf
January 13	71	$381/sf	44	1,921sf
January 20	72	$384/sf	41	1,877sf
January 27	75	$399/sf	40	1,891sf
February 3	78	$409/sf	41	1,876sf
February 10	82	$395/sf	38	1,927sf
February 17	85	$387/sf	35	1,929sf
February 24	90	$383/sf	37	2,008sf
March 3	82	$397/sf	39	1,942sf
March 10	88	$377/sf	37	2,008sf
March 17	89	$366/sf	34	2,038sf
March 24	79	$369/sf	34	2,031sf
March 31	78	$367/sf	39	2,069sf
April 7	87	$373/sf	32	2,054sf
April 14	97	$380/sf	31	2,000sf
April 21	87	$377/sf	32	2,062sf
April 28	107	$379/sf	29	2,044sf
May 5	114	$376/sf	27	2,046sf
May 12	108	$385/sf	31	2,012sf

The $800,000 – $1,400,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	DOM	Avg SF
November 25	245	$448/sf	61	2,856sf
December 2	239	$448/sf	64	2,851sf
December 9	226	$461/sf	65	2,812sf
December 16	211	$464/sf	66	2,794sf
December 23	197	$453/sf	73	2,813sf
December 30	173	$450/sf	78	2,821sf
January 6	170	$470/sf	65	2,757sf
January 13	168	$463/sf	59	2,764sf
January 20	174	$444/sf	51	2,882sf
January 27	166	$435/sf	52	2,902sf
February 3	165	$441/sf	53	2,857sf
February 10	175	$443/sf	51	2,852sf
February 17	180	$447/sf	50	2,803sf
February 24	188	$438/sf	44	2,846sf
March 3	202	$421/sf	44	2,936sf
March 10	215	$431/sf	41	2,854sf
March 17	223	$421/sf	42	2,918sf
March 24	217	$419/sf	42	2,941sf
March 31	223	$425/sf	44	2,887sf
April 7	224	$428/sf	44	2,881sf
April 14	233	$429/sf	44	2,892sf
April 21	237	$432/sf	44	2,894sf
April 28	240	$430/sf	45	2,848sf
May 5	272	$434/sf	42	2,838sf
May 12	269	$438/sf	42	2,831sf

The $1,400,000 – $2,400,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	DOM	Avg SF
November 25	227	$580/sf	81	3,692sf
December 2	222	$588/sf	85	3,653sf
December 9	219	$586/sf	87	3,636sf
December 16	211	$593/sf	88	3,627sf
December 23	196	$601/sf	94	3,581sf
December 30	190	$597/sf	100	3,591sf
January 6	175	$595/sf	97	3,594sf
January 13	184	$600/sf	92	3,590sf
January 20	187	$589/sf	83	3,663sf
January 27	195	$589/sf	80	3,649sf
February 3	196	$573/sf	78	3,730sf
February 10	205	$583/sf	76	3,687sf
February 17	216	$582/sf	72	3,729sf
February 24	211	$584/sf	77	3,744sf
March 3	221	$585/sf	78	3,761sf
March 10	228	$585/sf	77	3,740sf
March 17	217	$584/sf	75	3,744sf
March 24	231	$584/sf	73	3,742sf
March 31	232	$569/sf	71	3,750sf
April 7	230	$569/sf	71	3,753sf
April 14	233	$564/sf	69	3,748sf
April 21	244	$563/sf	67	3,780sf
April 28	238	$566/sf	66	3,757sf
May 5	247	$571/sf	61	3,746sf
May 12	251	$559/sf	64	3,782sf

The OVER-$2,400,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	DOM	Avg SF
November 25	340	$1,040/sf	159	6,347sf
December 2	330	$1,049/sf	160	6,342sf
December 9	318	$1,057/sf	163	6,392sf
December 16	317	$1,049/sf	163	6,420sf
December 23	302	$1,063/sf	169	6,405sf
December 30	285	$1,074/sf	174	6,460sf
January 6	285	$1,073/sf	171	6,477sf
January 13	295	$1,057/sf	168	6,480sf
January 20	297	$1,050/sf	157	6,537sf
January 27	307	$1,041/sf	152	6,513sf
February 3	297	$1,048/sf	152	6,545sf
February 10	315	$1,024/sf	146	6,519sf
February 17	315	$1,030/sf	148	6,572sf
February 24	314	$1,028/sf	148	6,611sf
March 3	309	$1,004/sf	145	6,628sf
March 10	316	$1,011/sf	141	6,576sf
March 17	329	$999/sf	136	6,557sf
March 24	331	$995/sf	131	6,563sf
March 31	336	$995/sf	131	6,574sf
April 7	345	$988/sf	128	6,477sf
April 14	349	$996/sf	126	6,534sf
April 21	353	$995/sf	124	6,523sf
April 28	366	$980/sf	120	6,543sf
May 5	379	$974/sf	119	6,539sf
May 12	388	$967/sf	118	6,509sf

The new pendings hit the highest weekly count of the year (85), but it can be directly linked to the surge of new listings – about 100 additional houses came to market over the last three weeks, compared to what we’ve been having:

Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings

Week	New Listings	New Pendings
May 30	70	84
June 5	87	64
June 11	77	69
June 17	73	66
June 24	100	69
July 1	86	64
July 8	81	53
July 15	106	54
July 22	105	89
July 29	71	74
Aug 5	105	64
Aug 12	77	61
Aug 19	88	73
Aug 26	87	77
Sep 2	76	55
Sep 9	85	58
Sep 16	102	61
Sep 23	84	54
Sep 30	73	80
Oct 7	80	61
Oct 14	78	53
Oct 21	70	63
Oct 28	54	40
Nov 4	63	53
Nov 11	49	64
Nov 18	52	44
Nov 25	48	40
Dec 2	25	34
Dec 9	45	47
Dec 16	56	46
Dec 23	21	39
Dec 30	14	23
Jan 6	63	25
Jan 13	75	44
Jan 20	98	51
Jan 27	71	56
Feb 3	74	63
Feb 10	95	59
Feb 17	81	76
Feb 24	80	70
Mar 3	88	71
Mar 10	98	54
Mar 17	87	65
Mar 24	89	76
Mar 31	77	57
April 7	98	61
April 14	108	72
April 21	87	62
April 28	122	73
May 5	144	67
May 12	96	85