An excerpt from MND:
FHFA’s REO-to-Rental Initiative, Burns said, is meant to complement the primary disposition strategies used by the GSEs and is intended as a pilot. Its goals are fairly limited:
- To gauge investor appetite for scattered site single-family rental housing and their price sensitivity;
- To determine whether disposing of properties in bulk presents an opportunity for well-capitalized investors to partner with regional and local property management companies and other community organizations to create appropriate economies of scale while providing civic-minded approaches that can stabilize and improve market conditions;
- To assess whether the model can be replicated to make it a worthwhile addition to the standard retail and small-bulk sales strategies of the GSEs and other financial institutions with large inventories of REO.
Burns addressed what she said were misconceptions regarding FHFA’s intent and goals for the rental pilot. First, it is highly targeted and focused only on markets that provide an opportunity to correct a fundamental supply-demand imbalance. “This type of intervention would be highly inappropriate on a national scale and the program was never intended to be offered nationally,” she said. Second, the pilot will not result in severely discounted sales. If the properties cannot be sold at close to what they would bring through retail execution then they will not be sold.
Because there are so many uncertainties, the pilot is initially limited to Fannie Mae properties because of its greater concentration of homes in the selected markets and because it seemed most reasonable to expand the capabilities of only one company to executive the program and meet the significant legal and operational challenges involved.
Also because of the uncertain outcomes the first pool of properties includes a large number of properties that are already rented to tenants who were in place when the properties were conveyed to Fannie Mae. This will minimize the time that properties are held off the market and help to test one of the key objectives of the pilot – to determine investor appetite for this asset class.
Another misconception, she said, is that FHFA is using the program to address long-standing rental housing issues. It was never intended as a vehicle to increase the national supply of affordable rentals nor to improve the housing stock though energy efficient improvements. The variability of the properties make it impossible to engage in large scale upgrades as would the geographic distance between properties. While it is possible that expanding rental housing in the target communities could have a beneficial impact on price and provide better alternatives for larger families and that any improvements to individual properties could ultimately improve the overall housing stock, these are not the primary goals of the program.
FHFA invited several federal agencies with experience in asset disposition and REO sales to participate in a working group which now includes the FDIC, Departments of Housing and Urban Development and Treasury, and the Federal Reserve, as well as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Their input has been helpful and FHFA adopted a version of the FDIC approach to asset disposition for banks as a model for the pilot.
The communities (Las Vegas, Phoenix, several communities in Florida, Chicago, Riverside and Los Angeles, California, and Atlanta) have been identified as have 2,500 properties. Interested investors who survived prequalification have submitted applications to participate in the auction and evaluation of those applications is now underway.
There are currently 8,000 single family residences in ALL of Maricopa County (most of the Phoenix market) listed as active. There is LESS inventory than at the peak of the bubble. Multiple offers on everything is the rule. Lower priced investment homes often attract 10 to 20 offers. Prices have already risen more than 20 percent since the beginning of the year. There is no need for this program whatsoever.
They say they intend to sell these properties at close to retail market value. A few properties scattered across a huge geographical area, with many of them rented to tenants of unknown quality? The investors than have pooled money in anticipation of snapping up bulk bargains aren’t going to be interested in those deals.
Here’s the reality, at least in Maricopa County. Absorption has been running in the 7,000 plus range per month. Looks like there are about 10 markets involved, so maybe there are 300 or 400 GSE properties in Greater Phoenix to be sold in this pilot program. Putting every one of these properties on the retail market would add a couple of days if supply to a ridiculously tight market.
If the GSE’s own 180,000 properties (and that inventory is declining rapidly), then maybe 9,000, or 5 percent, are in Maricopa County. Spread those out over a year, and there will be no impact whatsoever on this market.
The 1.3 million homes in default? If prices continue to go up, people will decide it’s worthwhile to cure the default and do a workout with the lender. Force short sales or foreclose over the next two or three years on those folks that can’t cure and let the market work through the inventory.
The juggernaut has been launched and can’t be stopped, but what a waste of resources this project is.