Finding Our Way

Written by Jim the Realtor

November 17, 2009

Cielo, a gated community at the edge of Rancho Santa Fe, has struggled to build sales momentum.

There are 26 active listings (this house is number 13th on the list), ranging from $1.595 to $7.999, and five contingent/pending listings currently, but only seven have closed over the last six months, averaging $301/sf:

The nine lots at the end were listed for $4+ million, but the listing expired.

15 Comments

  1. Geotpf

    Insert comment about stripper shoes here.

  2. shadash

    Wow… Whiny, Complainy, and Stripper Shoes.

    2004 just called and it wants it’s Realtor back.

  3. clearfund

    Jim – Report by Zillow showing homeowner’s view of real estate prices relative to reality….interesting take on the psychology of the market vs the usual focus on the data.

    The prize for the most unrealisic is…THE WEST.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/34010851

    Seems telling of the prior bubble, the current frenzy, and the possible next leg down…

  4. clearfund

    Jim – “Why is there no view…” Answer: $$$ they went cheap on their construction and squeezed every penny out of the budget as possible.

    Have seen scene countless times: They sat with the builder to review budgets before construction while looking at plans and got an $80k window package bid…and fell on the floor.

    After the paramedics left, they asked how to cut the costs on every line item…easiest/first place to get big hits is windows…remove custom sizes (i.e. big view windows) and pocket door systems at $1k/lineal foot…bamm, $25k+ savings (errr I mean extra profit in my excel spreadsheet)

    Result of this mindset is an inferior product. The only way to sell high end homes is to buy a great lot (1st mistake they made), and don’t be afraid to spend real good money on quality work (doors, windows, view, wood work, thick granite edges, sinks, custom designed tile/backsplash, custom framed mirrors, quality carpet, large stain grade base/crown,etc.

    Once you go cheap, the price falls faster than your savings. Called this the moment you drove up to that plain ‘loaf of bread’ house. No detail, ginerbred, architectural thought, iron, varying chimney caps, and basic entry curb appeal…btw, cannot even see the front of the house from the road…my compliments to the chef/architect.

    MY PRICE: $1.4MM (Below $300/sf since their const costs to duplicate are likely in the mid $200/sf including pool landscape). A quality RSF home begins at $300/sf for this size (and bigger), not below.

  5. clearfund

    ps: by “A quality RSF home begins at $300/sf for this size (and bigger), not below.” I meant CONSTRUCTION COSTS begin at $300/sf, not home price (although they are about to become one in the same very soon…free lot with the purchase of a structure).

  6. Geotpf

    Well, they clearly cheaped out with the lack of a cabinet (exposed plumbing) on that sink/wet bar/whatever it is upstairs.

  7. doughboy

    That was supposed to be “Da Bomb” out there along with the Crosby when they were started. I had a friend in the concrete biz who did all the curbs out here. 10’s of million in infrastructure to get to those lots and their own fire station right at the gate. The developer of Cielo was a wealthy japanese guy. Times have changed!

  8. JE

    Love the new format. Potential buyers are going to be so dissapointed with those places. Love the view though.
    I met daughter of the wealthy Japanese Cielo developer a few years back…knockout.

  9. JK

    Can you get fire insurance on a property like that?

  10. pemeliza

    Two priceless JTR lines:

    “they are just trying to go with the momentum … which there is none”

    “just because you’re cheaper than other listings … doesn’t mean you’re cheap”

    Seriously dude, do you work on these classics ahead of time?

  11. Jim the Realtor

    Nope, they just spew.

    I’m with clearfund, I thought $1.499 should have been the list price. Made me think “Over a half-million higher than the opening bid? How bad do I want a REO flood if the banks/servicers start getting cocky?”

  12. househippie

    Jim, I love the way you get Lucy’s goat! Hike all the way out to Desolation-ville for an hour and a half, and then tell her it’s a drive-by for a friggin’ picture! I’m laughing so hard I can barely type. Love the shoes. Do they light up on stage?

    That lot on Camino Sin Puente might be one and a half acres, but it’s long and narrow and the backyard is practically falling off the cliff. Besides, is anyone really fooled into thinking Cielo is in Rancho Santa Fe? It’s more like “The Hillside Village Practically in Escondido.”

    Looks like they’re planning a future development next to Olivenhain Dam. That’ll be a nice view.

  13. KP Springfield

    Now Jim, don’t be hatin’ on Esco school district. I mean, don’t get me wrong, if I was shellin’ out $2 mil for a house, I’d probably expect at least Poway school district, but still, some of those Cielo homes are probably in Bernardo or LR Green elementary, which are among the best in SD county. San Pasqual HS is good too. But regardless, from Cielo to any of those schools is 20-30 minutes by car minimum.

    Cielo is aptly named. You drive up there and you feel like you’re literally on top of the world. Love riding my bike up there. No traffic (because more than half the houses are EMPTY), insane ups and downs, and some of the best views in all of SD county. There’s one undeveloped plateau on the far eastern end which literally looks straight down at Lake Hodges. Breathtakingly beautiful, but also breathtakingly remote and isolated.

    Would I live there? Maybe if I could find a $500K house, but sure as hell not for $2 mil. At those prices, those homes are destined for failure. And those bulk lots will sell eventually, but for pennies on the dollar.

    KP

  14. Locomotive Breath

    Loved those shoes, but even more loved the voice of she who weareth them…Very intriguing…thanks…

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Jim Klinge
Klinge Realty Group

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