In today’s Union-Tribune they quote nine different people about the real estate market, and the reports are remarkably similar. Let’s give them some credit, at least they are getting closer to the truth – the lower end is hot, and the higher end is not:
San Diego County home prices remained virtually flat in March for the third straight month, with sales of entry-level homes the strongest, in the clearest sign yet that at least the market’s bottom rung may have stabilized.
The county’s median price was $285,000, unchanged from February and up $5,000 from January, MDA DataQuick reported yesterday. Sales skyrocketed to 3,020, up 43 percent from a year ago; it was the biggest increase for any March in five years.
Local buying has been dominated by low-priced foreclosure homes, which represented 51.1 percent of all resales last month, DataQuick said. It was the fourth month in a row that more than half of resales were foreclosure properties.
Prices on those discounted properties are clearly attracting heightened interest from first-time buyers and investors. Agents such as Calvin Goad report multiple bids, often above the asking price. He recently drew nine offers on a $384,000 home in two days, with some over the $400,000 mark.
“Most of those buyers have been hanging on, trying to get the incredible deal, and the incredible deal is gone now – it was a couple months ago,” Goad said.
The only thing a stable median price might mean is that there could be more higher-end sellers who are starting to cave and actually selling their home, which would help balance the midpoint.
Here is a link to the article:
They didn’t get my quote right though. There were 55 houses listed for sale in Rancho Santa Fe in March, and currently there are 327 active listings.
“Most of those buyers have been hanging on, trying to get the incredible deal, and the incredible deal is gone now – it was a couple months ago,” Goad said.
Sounds pretty reminiscent of (non-Jim) realtor bubble talk to me. This guy has a future as an NAR spokesperson, especially with that last name.
TJ- here is the link for Dataquick. I suppose another mouth piece for the NAR, right?
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/RRCA090319.aspx
Sales have been increasing for 8 months, price declines leveling. Median is skewed by foreclosures, anyone who doesn’t have to sell isn’t.
Mozart, again you insist on using volume as a measure for market health – It’s a bogus stat. Per the U-T article, over half the volume is foreclosures (and that’s only going to rise now that the government has decided they are allowed again,) which only brings prices down.
And please read your own sources; on that same DQ post you provide, it says the average monthly payment buyers are committing to is in the $900’s, versus the $1,700’s just a year ago. Sound like a healthy market to you???
Shouldn’t someone mention that net price is up to 18k less than purchase price in most cases due to Federal (8k) and state (10k) tax rebate ?
Maybe that influenced a couple buyers in March. Would be nice to see some of the experts analyze that impact.
“Most of those buyers have been hanging on, trying to get the incredible deal, and the incredible deal is gone now – it was a couple months ago,” Goad said.
What was so great about a couple of months ago? Foreclosures on hold? Sounds like someone need to change the batteries in his ACME Crystal Ball.
The 10k state rebate is only for newly constructed homes that have never been lived in before. I’m not sure if it has an income limit, but the federal 8k one sure does. I’m sure the 8k one is helping the lower end of the market, though. But if you make above the income limit and are looking at resale homes, you get neither rebate.
Blur- does a less than 5 month supply of houses sound healthy? Yes, it does. The doom & gloom party is just about over for people like TJ.
And yes, I did read the numbers. My point is the foreclosures are skewing the median. A point also made by Dataquick. Did you read the whole thing or skim for the parts you wanted?
Check out housing tracker while you’re at it both for San Diego and nationally.
The doom & gloom party is just about over for people like TJ.
Doom & gloom? Lower housing prices are a reason to celebrate! Besides, just like with the stock market this is a sucker’s rally. Don’t blink or you’ll miss it.
“My point is the foreclosures are skewing the median.”
If foreclosures are over half the sales, then it’s the regular sales that skew the median. You have it backwards.
“Besides, just like with the stock market this is a sucker’s rally. Don’t blink or you’ll miss it.”
Sounds very reminiscent of what I heard on the AOL socal real estate chat rooms circa 1996. (bear market rally, dead cat bounce, were only in the 3rd inning here people). We all know what happened after that.
Sadly, for some permadoomers history will repeat itself…