Where and When to Move

You’ve heard friends and family say it, and you may have said it yourself.

“Oh, I’m going to sell!”

It’s said casually, without a real commitment or timeline, with blame placed on politics, taxes, traffic, etc.

With home prices this high, it’s a real temptation because virtually every homeowner can cash out with six or seven figures and leave California for good – which I encourage!

We know you aren’t desperate, you don’t need the money, and you’re not going to give it away. We’ve covered that – heck, I even have a t-shirt!

If making a move is getting to be more than just a temptation, then what should a casual seller focus on?

Know where you are going to move.

Without knowing for sure where they are going to go, people just never get around to selling.

Let me help you – check out my collection here, and take a road trip:

https://www.bubbleinfo.com/general-information/where-to-move/

Once you know where, then the next question is when – and look what’s coming in 2020.

We sold houses during Clinton, Bush, Obama, and a couple of years of Trump, so the real estate market won’t come to a halt.  But this election cycle is shaping up to be an all-timer!

As we get closer to the election, more people will decide to wait, causing fewer buyers and sellers.

Let’s work it backwards.

Election Day is November 3, 2020, so we should just take October off, and focus on the World Series…..which should include the Padres.

September won’t be any better, and August and July could slow down too, so It would probably be smart to move by May/June – or wait until Selling Season 2021.

Or just get cracking now, while rates are in the mid-3s!

Get Good Help!

Kayla’s New Team

Kayla has joined the Jacky Teplitzky Team, one of the most successful realtor teams in the history of Manhattan real estate – and she couldn’t be more excited! Her first week on the job was jam-packed with tours of their listings, and other training. Look out now, NYC!

https://thejackyteplitzkyteam.elliman.com/

The process began when Kayla was aggressively pursuing a deal on one of Jacky’s listings, and partner Barak took notice and suggested Kayla should work for them. She did interview with two other teams – one at Compass and another Elliman team – but she felt Jacky’s team was a perfect fit for her.

Jacky is known as a leader in the realtor community, and was featured as a panelist this week – an excerpt:

They’re worried about the health of the economy and the state of politics, both local and national. And they’re just as concerned about the rise of disruptors and third-party lead-generation companies. More than 100 people crammed into the lobby of the Elad Group’s under-construction condo on West 43 Street to hear what top residential brokerage executives and agents had to say about it all.

The whiplash between reality and market predictions is leaving many people “starving for information,” according to Shlomi Reuveni, founder of Reuveni Real Estate, who organized and moderated the event. “I have never seen a market like this,” he said. “This is as surreal as it gets.”

While the crowd sipped champagne and picked at a catered lunch, Brown Harris Stevens’ CEO Bess Freedman, Warburg Realty’s Frederick Peters and Modern Spaces’ CEO Eric Benaim debated Donna Olshan, Nancy Packes, Compass’ Kyle Blackmon and Douglas Elliman’s Jacky Teplitzky swapped takes on the health of the market.

Teplitzky called it a “schizophrenic” market, saying that she’s finding there’s “no rhyme or reason” to what transacts. (She did underline a “surge” of buyers from Mexico and potentially Argentina as a bright spot for buyers with some urgency.)

Olshan noted that she believed that the elimination of the state and local tax deductions was “the tipping point.”

Teplitzky disagreed. She attributed the slowdown in purchasing to the vast amount of product buyers can choose from, adding that “there is more off the market than on the market.”

http://www.thenewsfunnel.com/real-estate-news/5d4c1f246fbb083573d1d8f2

At first they told Kayla that she probably wouldn’t be doing an open house for three months, but her first week went so well that she is having an open house today!

Do you know of anyone who is thinking of moving into or out of Manhattan? Contact Kayla!

Buyers Getting Shut Out

Where to move by color! Just find an affordable blue area that suits you.

From NPR:

Ten years after the housing collapse, a new and different housing crisis has emerged.

Back then, people were losing their homes as home values crashed and homeowners went underwater. Today, home values have rebounded, but people who want to buy a new home are often priced out of the market. There are too few homes and too many potential buyers.

Home construction per household is now at its lowest levels in nearly six decades, according to researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. This isn’t just a problem in San Francisco or New York, where home prices and rents have gone sky-high. It is also a problem in midsized, fast-growing cities farther inland, like Des Moines, Iowa; Durham, N.C.; and Boise, Idaho. In Boise, an analysis by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development showed there is a demand for more than 10 times the number of homes being built right now.

(more…)

Best Affordable Cities in California

Rob Dawg’s neighborhood!  Hat tip to Eddie89 for sending this in:

Surf, sun and year-round moderate temperatures can sometimes come at a cost.

With a reputation as one of the most expensive states in the U.S., California (thankfully) still has some economically sound places to reside – if you know where to look.

Just to be clear: We didn’t just create this list based solely on the cheapest places to live. The cost of living was part of our methodology, but so was the quality of life, as well as the key components of transportation, housing, food and utilities.

Here are the 5 most affordable cities in California:

  • Oxnard
  • Ventura
  • Simi Valley
  • Vacaville
  • Camarillo

1. Oxnard

About an hour north of Los Angeles, Oxnard offers beachfront living at an affordable price.

The median household income here is $62,349 with median home value settling at $332,600, which is actually a great deal for California real estate.

Golf, winery visits and strolls on Mandalay Beach are all part of living in Oxnard.

With fertile agricultural land surrounding the city, many crops grow in the region. But Oxnard is most famous for its strawberries, with the popular California Strawberry Festival held here each year.

The city has the nickname of the “Gateway to the Channel Islands,” a nearby national park and marine sanctuary.

Link to Full Article

Net Migration Turning Negative

Hat tip to CB Mark for sending in another article on people leaving California – I added the U.S. Census stats for San Diego County at the bottom:

People have long dreamed of moving to California, but increasingly the people in the state are looking to get out.

According to recently released data from the US Census, about 38,000 more people left California than entered it in 2018. This is the second straight year that migration to the state was negative, and it’s a trend that is speeding up. Every year since 2014, net migration has fallen.

California’s population did still increase in 2018 by almost 160,000 people, largely due to the 480,000 people born in the state. But while migration out of the state has accelerated over the past few years, the number of annual births has been steady. The trend suggests in the next decade California’s population will begin to decline.

Besides births, the main reason California’s population hasn’t already started falling has been international migration into the state. Every year since 2011, net domestic migration has been negative—i.e., more people leave California than move in from other states. But from 2011 to 2016, the number of international migrants moving into California was larger than the number of locals who were moving out.

Since then, however, domestic departures have outstripped international arrivals.  In 2018, 156,000 locals left the state, compared to 118,000 international who came.

Link to full article:

https://qz.com/1599150/californias-population-could-start-shrinking-very-soon/

The exodus from San Diego County is picking up steam.  Where the cumulative total of domestic migration over the last eight years was only 46,596 (avg. 5,825 per year), we had 10,835 leave in the most recent 12 month segment – and the international arrivals have slowed considerably too:

125 Best Places to Live in the USA

Are you thinking of moving?

According to the U.S. News & World Report, there are 35 towns in America that are better than San Diego!  And 33 of them are cheaper!

Austin, Texas is #1, with Denver, Colorado Springs, Des Moines, Portland, Seattle, and Raleigh/Durham all in the Top Ten.

Check out the full list here:

https://realestate.usnews.com/places/rankings/best-places-to-live

Buy A Town

Looking for a quaint little place to move?

In Indiana, the town of Story — with a population of three people — is on the market for $3.8 million.

For that price, you get 17.4 acres with a historic general store, fenced horse pastures, an old grain mill, several barns, rental cabins and outbuildings that include two 19th-century outhouses.

And as of 2018, only three people — plus four dogs and a resident ghost — lived in the town, located about an hour south of Indianapolis. The only employer is a bed-and-breakfast called the Story Inn.

The B&B’s owner, 62-year-old lawyer Rick Hofstetter, also owns the town. He plans to keep the hotel — which, as the state’s oldest country inn, attracts visitors — but wants to relinquish the responsibility of managing the rest of the properties.

“The town’s fortunes should be decoupled from our hospitality operations,” he told the Herald-Times. “Macy’s doesn’t own the mall.”

The lucky buyer will get what Hofstetter calls “an entire historic town nestled in the hills of southern Indiana” that dates back to 1851, per the listing.

“This is not a reconstruction of an authentic little town,” Hofstetter told WANE-TV in Fort Wayne. “This is an authentic little town.”

Link to Article

Best Cities To Live

Carlsbad was named as one of the best cities to live in America for 2019, according to rankings released by Niche, that ranked the city as No. 21.

The “Best Places to Live” rankings include cities, city neighborhoods and suburbs. Niche defines a “place” as a “non-rural town” with a population of 1,000 or more, including neighborhoods, suburbs and cities. Niche also separately ranked the best cities, neighborhoods and suburbs in which to live.

Carlsbad received an overall Niche grade of A+, with the following Niche scores by category:

  • Public Schools: A+
  • Crime & Safety: B
  • Housing: C
  • Nightlife: A-
  • Good for Families: A+
  • Diversity: A-

Carlsbad also ranked as No. 7 for Cities with the Best Public Schools in America, No. 11 for Best Cities to Retire and No.13 for Healthiest Cities in America.

The top 10 Best Suburbs to Live in California are:

  1. Berkeley
  2. Santa Monica
  3. Albany
  4. Mountain View
  5. Manhattan Beach
  6. Palo Alto
  7. Solana Beach
  8. Irvine
  9. Los Altos Hills
  10. Hermosa Beach

The top 10 best places to live in America are:

  1. Bluemont, neighborhood in Arlington, Virginia
  2. Carmel, Indiana
  3. Overlake, neighborhood in Redmond, Washington
  4. College Terrace, neighborhood in Palo Alto, California
  5. Davis Island, neighborhood in Tampa, Florida
  6. Rose Isle, neighborhood in Orlando, Florida
  7. Colonial Village, neighborhood in Arlington, Virginia
  8. Okemos, Michigan
  9. Chesterbrook, Pennsylvania
  10. Radnor/Fort Myer Heights, neighborhood in Arlington, Virginia

Niche released its “Best Places to Live” rankings on Monday. The publication says its goal is to “provide accurate, comparable and thorough evaluations of places.” Using data from government and private sources, Niche grades the places evaluated for the rankings on factors like public schools, crime and safety and housing.

Link to Patch

Money Walks

This website charts migration according to the IRS reports, based on incomes:

https://www.howmoneywalks.com/irs-tax-migration/

Folks from wealthier counties love to come here because the real estate prices look so attractive. We’re getting more affluent!

Twice as much money leaving San Diego is going just over the county line to Temecula, etc. than the other four counties combined.

Not surprising to hear that Las Vegas, Phoenix, Prescott, and Austin are the top out-of-state destinations!

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