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  1. Was going thru some old bookmarks and came back to your site. Man, I cant believe how much things have changed, commentwise!

    Back in late 08, early 09, this site was absolutely infected with people, nearly all of which were giddy with anticipation of the ALT A tsunami, or other such nonsense which was going to drive prices back to the stone age. They were staring at bottom prices right in the face and they still were convinced that massive price reductions were on the way…

    Back in those days, as things started to slowly improve, I started becoming less bearish. I would occasionally point that out, saying this or that “could” be a sign of a bottom, wondering if others saw it too.

    Yet whenever I did, the vast majority of commenters would fly into near-apoplectic fits of rage – how dare I challenge their predetermined view of reality that waterfront views will sell for pennies on the dollar! I must be some sort of “pumper” or “shill” to even challenge the mantra that prices were NOWHERE NEAR THE BOTTOM!!!!

    Every post – 30-50, even 100 comments, nearly all of them negative. It really was a cesspool of lagging pessimism back in those days. They even attacked you Jim, for simply calling it as you saw it. Talk about shooting the messenger!!!

    Any idea what happened to all those people? Did they ever wake up and realize they were staring at the bottom? Or did they just fade away over time, delusional to the end?

  2. Actually, I see that you enacted comment moderation, so I guess thats the answer. They are still out there, 36 months post bottom, still delusional…amazing.

    Its interesting, I wanted lower prices too, but once we had them, I was more interested in actually taking advangage of them vs sitting on the sidelines forever. Apparently that is not the norm for the blogosphere LOL!

  3. Good for you – glad you got in!

    Others did as well. Ocrenter was one of the first, buying in 2008, CA renter and Rich Toscano have bought houses too. They were among the most vocal yet rational folks, and you are probably right that there are others that haven’t bought – and may never unless the market cooperates with their visions.

    The amount of the government intervention was unexpected, enabling many to dodge the foreclosure bullet and instead live for free for months years. The relationship between banks and government…well, how do I say it? It is not free enterprise, that’s for sure.

    I think some of the more brutal comments were people looking to disrupt my business, so factor that in too.

  4. This site’s always been about info., and just like in the real world, many will always be late to catch on to the significance of that info. Point is, JTR shares the info. he sees. It’s up to buyers & sellers to decide if we want to buy or sell and for how much.
    We, as just one example, chose to sell in ’05, and buy in summer of ’08. Who cares but us? I regularly return to read jtr – because he’s a caring & sharing Pro in a sector overloaded with short-sighted baffoons. He tells us all what he thinks is fun, relevant (& sometimes even criminal). And, perhaps best – until things get out of hand he seems to have no need to step on opinions.

  5. CA renter bought? Wow, I remember her being respectful, yet very very bearish – like near delusional bearish IMO. Still that could have just been her talking points, and she really was in tune with reality.

    Speaking of which, what about TJ& The bear? Did he ever buy?

  6. Doug S. said…

    “overloaded with short-sighted baffoons.”

    You can say that again. Back in 06, I was a newbie, knew next to nothing about RE other than it was unaffordable.

    Many of the commenters assured me, often with a shocking degree of certainty that if we “wait” we will be “rewarded”. As the years went by, I was horrified that some of the people I was relying on had been renters for 15-20 years, all the while waiting and hypothecating about some imminent doom.

    Had I known that from the beginning, obviously, I wouldnt have listened to them. Still, thats the problem with the blogoshere. In real life you can quickly tell if people are delusional. On the blogosphere, they could be citing this and that metric about why doom is imminent, all the while living in their parents basement as they have continuously since 1994.

  7. I’m old, 53, and own my home. But I needed to get my kids their first homes so I started in ’06 reading Bill for macro and Jim for micro data and information. We bought the first home in Sept of ’10 (OC), the second in Feb of ’11 (west side LA), and the last in June ’11 (TO). I’m an engineer and always felt very confident in Bill’s data and Jim’s street sense, so I was comfortable both holding off and then buying when we did, but yeah I breathed easier when Bill called the bottom in Feb of ’12.

    I only wish one of my kids’ career paths after college took them to SD so I could’ve worked with Big Jim, the best damn realtor on the planet.

  8. Hyakutake, I was one of the bears, in the same foreclosed bathtub as OCRenter, CA Renter and Rich Toscano. I bought in January 2010, a regular sale, but I stood firm on a low-ball, knowing there would be plenty of chances to swing my bat. Ended up getting a house in RSF at 18% off LP of a regular sale. The only wrench in it all was expecting to remodel in the first year, and now it’s been three years. Maybe this year…haha!

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