In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Rick Palacios Jr., Director of Research and a Managing Principal at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, to talk about what to expect in the real estate market in 2023.
Rick discusses the company’s latest research on homebuilder sentiment, shares their latest forecast for home prices and the economy, and talks about some secret signals to watch for changes in the market.
About Rick Palacios Jr.
Rick Palacios Jr. is the Director of Research and a Managing Principal at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, where he oversees all research pertaining to the US economy, for-sale housing, and rental markets.
Rick has 15 years of experience in residential real estate and economic research, originally joining John Burns Real Estate Consulting in 2006 and then rejoining the company in 2014 after working as a home builder Equity Research Associate at Morgan Stanley in New York. He has also worked as an Analyst at the Milken Institute, an economic think tank.
Rick holds a BA from the University of California, Irvine, and an MS in real estate economics and finance from the London School of Economics.
Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn:
- Why new home construction might accelerate the housing market slump
- How much home prices are likely to decline in the next two years
- The leading indicators (and secret signals!) to watch for changes in the market
- What’s happening with the second home market now
- The surprising impact of ARMs in this cycle
Rick is a surprisingly open analyst. He gave multiple 1on1 quotes that you cant write down in reports.
The 50% drop in new builder sales sales since June quote + 20% decrease in overall market yoy in 2023 are blinking red lights.
Personally I think hes a little over the deep end. SD will likely just continue sliding sideways + number of sales will go down. But, the sky isnt falling… (Unless banks start foreclosing again like they did in 2007/8/9)