Tom is coming right along on his major remodel in Bay Park – the photo at the right was taken since Friday’s video (click to enlarge).
Tune in Monday night, February 13th at 8pm when Tom joins me on Blog Talk Radio right here at bubbleinfo.com.
We will be discussing his strategies for finding properties, where he gets his design ideas, the process of remodeling, and the specific strategy of how to sell for top dollar.
There is a funky thing about Blog Talk Radio.
They don’t have any code for leading into the shows – the listening button just goes live at 8:00pm with no notice. So if you tune in a few minutes early and don’t see any place to click to listen, wait until 8:00 on the dot, and it will suddenly appear – and we’ll be rocking!
Join us Monday, February 13th at 8pm with Tom Tarrant on Blog Talk Radio!
We’ll be discussing his house renovations and flips, how he finds his properties, and the key to selling them. If you have questions or comments, you can call in on Monday, or leave them here in the comment section!
A summary of his comparison of home prices vs. local incomes, and prices vs. rents:
Well, you can’t — some people say, “Oh, it should be three times income or something.” It doesn’t really work that way because I’m just taking a per capita income like — well, I’ll tell you. I’ll answer the question.
The typical ratio has been about eight times per capita income.
The ratio is eight for what it’s worth, but it’s really not really worth anything, except to compare it to what it’s been in the past. So, right now — yeah now we’re much below — we’re about 7.3 or something like that and it was maybe 8.1 with historical — we’re roughly 10% below the historical price/income ratio.
We’re about 4% below the historical price-to-rent ratio. So, we’re in undervalue historically, not dramatically so, but we’re there, which is now, we just kind of might want to buy houses.
Rich also mentioned that he bought a house recently! He goes into detail about it here:
If this outlook is correct, as I believe it is, then today’s ultra-low rates make this an ideal time to take out a chunky 30-year fixed mortgage, and to sit back and let inflation hew away at the real value of the mortgage and the monthly payments over the years to come.
So, the missus and I went out looking for homes. We only found one in our price range, a single family house in Bay Park, that we thought was awesome enough to be a long-term home. So we made an offer, got a loan with as low a down payment as we could get away with, and have now re-joined the ranks of the titular Landed Poor.
I sat out an inflation-adjusted home price decline of almost 50%, and now I’m buying at a time when prices are cheaper than normal and monthly payments at 45% below their historical median. That’s close enough for me.
Join us for blog talk radio tomorrow night at 8pm PTwithRich Toscano of piggington.com!
We’ll be analyzing local real estate trends and discussing the right time to buy! We may even have Rich comment on his recent article on the U.S. debt load here. To listen, tune in here at bubbleinfo, and call 1-877-317-7373 with your questions and comments for Rich.
For those who can’t make it, there will be a recording ready right after the show, and the transcript available within 48 hours.
I hope to produce blog talk radio shows with guests on the second and fourth Monday nights of the month at 8pm PT. The next show will be with Tom Tarrant on February 13th, when we’ll be discussing his real estate strategies, and house flipping.
As you probably know, Tom has a project underway in Bay Park – here is a nearby listing for sale:
An excerpt from his article showing how inventory dropped off at the end of 2011:
Rich: This stat above, which is very important because it combines supply and demand into one figure, was substantially lower than a year prior, by 22.2% to be exact. So we enter 2012 with a fairly different setup, supply and demand wise, (and thus a more positive outlook for prices) than we entered 2011.
On a gloomier note, that higher demand is taking place in an environment of lifetime-low mortgage rates… if (when, in my opinion) that prop is removed, the housing market will have to fend for itself a bit more. Of course, that could be a way off. In the meantime, those waiting for a big price decline are likely to be disappointed.
We saw earlier in the Realtor Ethics post that the NAR doesn’t like the re-inputting of stale listings to make them appear to be hot new buys.
But because the listing numbers are sequential, and start with the year inputted, realtors want their listings to be sporting a fresh new number, starting with a 12. I would guess that 1/4 to 1/2 of the new 2012 listings are repeats from last year.
At least this one has been aggressively lowering their price:
Because of the BCS game, we have re-scheduled the Blog Talk Radio with Bill McBride of Calculated Risk to Tuesday, January 10th at 8pm. Join us with your questions and comments for Bill here at bubbleinfo.com!