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“Over 40 Offers”

Another wild bidding war!

This one was in Del Mar, but on the far north end off San Dieguito Dr. which isn’t the prime Del Mar village area (though close physically). Usually it’s the creampuffs that attract all the interest and offers, but in this case it was a regular old fixer that listed for $1,150,000.

It closed for $1,500,000, which was $350,000 over list!

https://www.compass.com/listing/1260-oribia-road-del-mar-ca-92014/664910345474000849/

Top Markets in 2021

Zillow Survey Predicts Austin will be the Nation’s Hottest Housing Market, Leading a Sunbelt Surge
More affordable metros are replacing expensive coastal areas as top drivers of home value growth
— A panel of economists and real estate experts expect Austin to outperform the national market by the largest margin, followed by Phoenix, Nashville, Tampa and Denver
— Expensive coastal markets New York, San Francisco and Los Angeles are most likely to underperform, though Zillow expects growth in every market
— Key tailwinds include an improved economic outlook underpinned by progress on coronavirus vaccines, while affordability and available supply are potential drags

SEATTLE, Jan. 19, 2021 /PRNewswire/ — Austin will be America’s hottest housing market in 2021, leading a list of mostly Sun Belt cities expected to continue heating up faster than the nation’s large coastal markets, according to a new Zillow® survey of experts.

The booming Texas destination heads a lineup of sunny and relatively affordable metro areas — PhoenixNashvilleTampa and Denver — that are most likely to outperform the nation in home value growth, according to a panel of economists and real estate experts recently surveyed by Zillow.

The Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, sponsored by Zillow and conducted quarterly by Pulsenomics LLC, asks a large panel of economists, investment strategists and real estate experts for their predictions about the U.S. housing market. The Q4 survey also asked about their expectations for 2021 home value growth in 20 large markets compared to the nation.

An overwhelming 84% of those surveyed said Austin values would out-perform the national average, compared to just 9% who believe it would fare worse. Phoenix came in second with 69%, followed by Nashville (67%), Tampa (60%), and Denver (56%). Page views on Zillow for-sale listings in Austin by out-of-town searchers were up 87% in November compared to 2019. 

The top-five metros are all affordable options compared to expensive coastal areas that have led home appreciation ranks in recent years, providing relative value for Millennials looking to take advantage of low mortgage rates to buy their first home. The top five are also, for the most part, sunny locales. Four of the five counties holding the largest cities in these MSAs all rank in the top-third of counties in the contiguous U.S. for average daily sunlight, according to NASA data analysed in The Washington Post. Davidson County, home to Nashville, ranked just below the midline.

“The pandemic has not upended the housing market so much as accelerated trends we saw coming into 2020,” said Zillow senior economist Jeff Tucker. “These Sun Belt destinations are migration magnets thanks to relatively affordable, family-sized homes, booming economies and sunny weather. Record-low mortgage rates and the increased demand for living space, coupled with a surge of Millennials buying their first homes, will keep the pressure on home prices there for the foreseeable future.”

An improved economic outlook thanks to COVID-19 vaccine roll-outs and better treatments was pegged as the most likely tailwind for the housing market in 2021, followed by sustained strength in first-time home buying among Millennials. It proved a powerful demand driver in 2020 and is expected to persist for years to come.

Link to Zillow Article

Chasing The Market

The term ‘chasing the market’ usually applies to sellers in a down market when they don’t lower their price fast enough to get ahead of the new listings coming on that are under-cutting them.

The reverse is also true about home buyers in a hot market.

Those in the hunt for weeks or months who have lost several bidding wars are watching each new listing get priced higher and higher, and their frustration mounts as they struggle to get ahead of the trend.  Some buyers can get priced out altogether, and others buck up and pay an exorbitant price just to end their misery and get on with life.

It just happened like that in La Costa Oaks.

I had two great comps nearby when when we priced our 7168 Sitio Corazon listing at $1,379,000, with the latest being right across the street.  Ours had the master suite downstairs, which isn’t as popular with families with young kids – and the 3,563sf plan has the master upstairs with the rest of the kids’ bedrooms.

It’s very unusual in the low-inventory era to have four sales within five months – especially this close together.  You can see what happens – they feed on each other, with the intensity building with each sale.

After my efficient and timely bidding war where I gave all contenders the chance to submit their highest-and-best offers, we ended up with three.  Two were $1,450,000, and the winner was a decisive $1,470,000 with no appraisal contingency and a 30-day rentback for my sellers.

Many of the buyers who saw my listing went across the street when 7177 Sitio Corazon hit the market a week later. I told the listing agent and the seven buyer-agents who contacted me that our sales price was $1,470,000, which helped feed the frenzy.  With it being the more desirable floor plan and full transparency about how hot the market is, buyers went crazy – and there were eight offers.

The buyers who won with an offer of $1,600,000 were one of my $1,450,000 offers.

They were tired of losing, apparently, and added enough mustard to clinch it – about 10% over list price, and more than 23% above a nearby model-match sale in August!

Get Good Help!

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Get Good Help!

Have you been thinking about getting a great realtor to help you buy a home, but feel loyal to your Aunt Bea or a friend who just started in the business?  This story is for you.

We received five offers on our new listing over the weekend.  The lowest offer was written by a new agent who is in her brokerage’s mentor program, and even her mentor attended the showing which made me feel like this was important. Typically, the mentors are has-beens who can’t hack it any more on the front lines, and instead want to be pseudo-coaches for new agents and get a chunk of their commissions.

I told both the agent and the mentor that we had already received multiple offers over list price, and to make their highest-and-best offer.  Once received, I asked specifically, “is this your highest-and-best offer?”

They never responded.

We had three buyers who were willing to pay at least $90,000 over the list price, so I engaged them in a second round to determine the winner.

We accepted an offer that was $100,000+ over the $1,100,000 list price.

Yesterday, the new agent got back to me and said her buyers are willing to match our high offer.

Even though her buyers must have been extremely interested in the house, the advice they received didn’t even put them in contention at the time.  And now it’s too late.

Immediate buyer demand requires, and deserves, immediate great advice.

I regularly meet people for the first time at a house in which they have interest – and I proceed to discuss the state of the market, evaluate the condition of the house and repair costs, and then pinpoint the value of the home based on comps and suggest a strategy to win it. There’s a handful of my clients who bought the first house they saw.

Get Good Help!

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For the skeptical who want proof of the demand, here’s the turnout over the weekend:

NSDCC Sales 2020

Let’s do a final round-up of the 2020 numbers:

NSDCC Annual Sales & Pricing

Year
# of Sales
Median Sales Price
Median DOM
# of $2M+ Sales
2013
3,083
$949,000
41
392
2014
2,904
$1,020,000
47
434
2015
3,104
$1,090,000
47
491
2016
3,104
$1,160,000
47
523
2017
3,088
$1,225,000
30
605
2018
2,814
$1,325,000
23
617
2019
2,838
$1,327,250
26
645
2020
3,228
$1,475,000
19
891

The median sales price went up 11% YoY, and the number of $2,000,000+ sales went up 38%!

And it feels like 2021 could be crazier!

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Inventory Watch

The contest for guessing the number of listings in January is now closed.  We are running about 20% behind last January’s count, so the few sellers who are willing to brave the early-2021 market will do nicely.

We had 31 showings and five offers on our new listing over the weekend, and three of them were willing to pay $90,000 over list!

If you are the kind of buyer who wants to use logic and common sense – and tie your offer price to the comps – well, this isn’t the market for you.  Pay tomorrow’s prices, today!

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Sellers Be Ready

The worst thing for home sellers is to be unprepared for the immediate reaction from buyers.

Those who haven’t sold a home in years will sign a listing agreement and settle in for what they expect will be a few months of marketing and showings until that nice young couple with 2.2 kids comes along to relieve them of the family homestead. Virtually every seller says, “I’m in no hurry!”

But the motivated buyers – those who pay the most – are scanning their search portals every minute, and when they see a possible contender, they react!

We have 29 showings this weekend of our new listing, and have received five offers – all over list price.

Be Ready, and Get Good Help!

24 Showings Booked

The seven showings of our new listing yesterday went well. People generally show up on time and understand the predicament that the demand is overwhelming the supply.  We’ve received two offers, and we are way over list price already.

There tends to be some standing around, so I like to engage with agents about how my slow-motion auction process works.  They appreciate the transparency, and tells stories about how other agents are handling their showings.  I heard a story about one listing agent who demands that agents submit the buyer’s preapproval letter and proof of funds JUST TO BE PUT ON A WAITING LIST TO SHOW, and another where no human interaction was allowed (which is common).

In my case, you deal with me, and I make myself available by phone, text, or email.  I want to give every buyer ample opportunity to buy the home – isn’t that what you want in your listing agent?

Get Good Help!

Immediate Buyer Demand

Our new listing hit the MLS about 5:30pm yesterday.  By 9:15pm, I received six requests to show it, and another three requests before 8am this morning!

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4743-Crater-Rim-Rd-Carlsbad-CA-92010/79572379_zpid

The zestimates and Redfin estimates are really a joke now.  If they are willing to derive their number off the list price and try to make you think it is the actual value, what else are they willing to do to you?

 

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