Why should home buyers be optimistic about 2025? It’s because sales have bottomed (hopefully):
San Diego County Annual Sales of Detached-Homes:
2003: 28,251 (high point)
2021: 25,252
2022: 18,378
2023: 14,003
2024: 14,837
It’s still going to be a challenge though.
This website says there are 530,430 houses in San Diego County, and this one says 634,366 houses. It means that last year somewhere between 2.3% to 2.8% of the total houses county-wide sold last year.
Yes – more than 97% of the detached-home owners in SD County didn’t sell last year!
About the best we can expect is to get back to the 2022 level, which would be a 19% increase in sales, year-over-year. It would take a major price adjustment for sales to go that crazy, because rates are going the wrong way and inventory will probably be going up, not down.
How will pricing break out of the gate? Won’t home sellers – the vast majority of them selling their home for the first time in 10-40 years – want to add a little mustard to their list price, just to see?
It’s easier to imagine that scenario, than agents talking their sellers into a very attractive price this early on.
We’ve received offers on my listing on La Costa Avenue but everyone wants a 10% discount, even though I think I have it priced in already. I’ve been hoping that a slew of new listings nearby will hit the market this month in the mid-$2 millions to make my $1,995,000 list price look more attractive.
How am I doing so far?
Here is the first nearby competitor, and it’s priced the same as mine!
https://www.compass.com/listing/2014-saliente-way-carlsbad-ca-92009/1748808396982187689/
Yikes! Bad for me, but great for the 92009 buyers.
If more of the 2025 listings hit the market with an attractive price, we could have frenzy-like conditions!
