To demonstrate further how the momentum is building, let’s look at SE Carlsbad.

4th Quarter SFR Closed Sales Between $2,000,000 and $3,000,000 in the 92009:

2023: 9

2024: 23

The optimism coming off the election helped, because ALL of these went pending since November 5th:

Only one had to take a real haircut on price – so far, two sold for full price and one sold over list!

If four of the pendings close this month, it will mean that the 4Q24 sales were 3x more than last year!

True, those could have been the last buyers ever for the 92009. But doesn’t there have to be potential buyers who decided to wait-and-see what 2025 has in store? I think so, and around the 92009, there will be a strong set of recent comps to support the valuations!

It reminds me of the 4th quarter of 2012 which snuck up on us because the short sales and foreclosures had not cleared yet. The NSDCC sales in 4Q12 were 44% higher than in the previous fourth quarter, and the following year, 2013, was the hottest year of the decade.

It looks like 2025 will be sizzling too!

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Jim the Realtor
Jim is a long-time local realtor who comments daily here on his blog, bubbleinfo.com which began in September, 2005. Stick around!

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