The political circus hasn’t caused the Big Distraction to our local marketplace like I thought. The pendings and sales have been rolling along and it doesn’t feel any softer than it usually does this time of year.

The fourth quarter will most likely be similar to how it was last year. Any chance of mortgage rates dropping substantially flew out the window and we’re going to live with rates in the 6% range for the foreseeable future.

But what is likely to happen is a surge of inventory in early 2025.

Here is one way to anticipate the future. The recent new listings keep coming:

NSDCC New Listings Of Detached-Homes, July 1 to September 30

2018: 1,290

2019: 1,247

2020: 1,390

2021: 998

2022: 758

2023: 669

2024: 774 (+16%)

For the first time in post-frenzy history, the number of new listings is growing – and it’s been trending in that direction all year.

It has seemed like the supply of homes for sale has been so depleted that a 20% increase would be easily digested. But now we will be looking at another +20% on top of the additional inventory we had this year.

Smart sellers will want to list their home for sale early in the spring selling season.

I think it’s going to explode in January – look out!

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Jim the Realtor
Jim is a long-time local realtor who comments daily here on his blog, bubbleinfo.com which began in September, 2005. Stick around!

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