The political circus hasn’t caused the Big Distraction to our local marketplace like I thought. The pendings and sales have been rolling along and it doesn’t feel any softer than it usually does this time of year.
The fourth quarter will most likely be similar to how it was last year. Any chance of mortgage rates dropping substantially flew out the window and we’re going to live with rates in the 6% range for the foreseeable future.
But what is likely to happen is a surge of inventory in early 2025.
Here is one way to anticipate the future. The recent new listings keep coming:
NSDCC New Listings Of Detached-Homes, July 1 to September 30
2018: 1,290
2019: 1,247
2020: 1,390
2021: 998
2022: 758
2023: 669
2024: 774 (+16%)
For the first time in post-frenzy history, the number of new listings is growing – and it’s been trending in that direction all year.
It has seemed like the supply of homes for sale has been so depleted that a 20% increase would be easily digested. But now we will be looking at another +20% on top of the additional inventory we had this year.
Smart sellers will want to list their home for sale early in the spring selling season.
I think it’s going to explode in January – look out!
JtR- Would you list during the holidays or wait until after the Super Bowl? Seems spooky after Veteran’s Day but also not good to be part of a herd in January.
We are going ahead with four new listings now (in the next couple of weeks). But if you haven’t started the prep work yet to get a home ready for sale, you might as well wait until 2025.
Our January-listings contest has shown how few people list their home for sale. It’s usually among the lowest months of the year, so any explosion might be noticeable but surprising to all except those reading here!
The shock will be felt by the regular folks in February/March. The Super Bowl isn’t going to be as exciting with the Chiefs again vs (fill in opponent) which we’ve seen before.
The local listing history for the last five years:
https://www.bubbleinfo.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Image-2024-10-08T093616810.png
Thanks JtR. I learned it here that the Super Bowl is when things get going.
It will be sooner in 2025.
For example, I’ve already booked my Open-House Extravaganza for January 18&19 and 25&26 – two different properties!