There is more talk about the Fed cutting a half-point on Wednesday. If they only drop 1/4%, mortgage rates will probably rise because at least that much is already priced in today.
It won’t mean much for the long-time active listings unless they lower their price.
Of the 465 actives today between La Jolla and Carlsbad, only 73 were listed in September, with a median list price of $2,995,000. For buyers looking under $3 million, it means there are only a couple of dozen homes for sale that have a chance of being a hot buy – in an area of 300,000 people!
New listings that hit the market over the next couple of weeks will be in the right place, at the right time!
The $0 – $1,500,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
Jan 2, 2024 |
15 |
$724/sf |
49 |
23 |
Jan 8 |
13 |
$645/sf |
58 |
19 |
Jan 15 |
10 |
$664/sf |
55 |
15 |
Jan 22 |
15 |
$750/sf |
36 |
15 |
Jan 29 |
12 |
$834/sf |
36 |
21 |
Feb 5 |
12 |
$784/sf |
38 |
23 |
Feb 12 |
10 |
$818/sf |
30 |
22 |
Feb 19 |
12 |
$731/sf |
17 |
21 |
Feb 26 |
7 |
$725/sf |
26 |
21 |
Mar 4 |
9 |
$763/sf |
23 |
21 |
Mar 11 |
15 |
$742/sf |
14 |
17 |
Mar 18 |
15 |
$697/sf |
16 |
21 |
Mar 25 |
13 |
$846/sf |
19 |
22 |
Apr 1 |
12 |
$897/sf |
22 |
20 |
Apr 8 |
15 |
$869/sf |
37 |
22 |
Apr 15 |
17 |
$811/sf |
16 |
25 |
Apr 22 |
18 |
$829/sf |
16 |
23 |
Apr 29 |
20 |
$796/sf |
20 |
23 |
May 6 |
19 |
$868/sf |
18 |
23 |
May 13 |
21 |
$859/sf |
18 |
22 |
May 20 |
25 |
$939/sf |
20 |
18 |
May 27 |
24 |
$897/sf |
25 |
20 |
Jun 3 |
22 |
$879/sf |
25 |
19 |
Jun 10 |
25 |
$834/sf |
26 |
19 |
Jun 17 |
21 |
$823/sf |
31 |
21 |
Jun 24 |
24 |
$752/sf |
32 |
24 |
Jul 1 |
23 |
$760/sf |
44 |
26 |
Jul 8 |
22 |
$801/sf |
40 |
23 |
Jul 15 |
22 |
$815/sf |
36 |
23 |
Jul 22 |
17 |
$814/sf |
43 |
23 |
Jul 29 |
24 |
$815/sf |
33 |
14 |
Aug 5 |
23 |
$771/sf |
29 |
18 |
Aug 12 |
22 |
$787/sf |
36 |
23 |
Aug 19 |
24 |
$773/sf |
28 |
27 |
Aug 26 |
24 |
$760/sf |
27 |
24 |
Sep 2 |
28 |
$767/sf |
24 |
18 |
Sep 9 |
27 |
$803/sf |
28 |
21 |
Sep 16 |
32 |
$808/sf |
27 |
19 |
The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
Jan 2, 2024 |
20 |
$866/sf |
66 |
28 |
Jan 8 |
23 |
$890/sf |
63 |
23 |
Jan 15 |
32 |
$876/sf |
47 |
35 |
Jan 22 |
35 |
$823/sf |
43 |
25 |
Jan 29 |
38 |
$833/sf |
43 |
26 |
Feb 5 |
39 |
$810/sf |
34 |
28 |
Feb 12 |
32 |
$781/sf |
39 |
34 |
Feb 19 |
33 |
$797/sf |
36 |
29 |
Feb 26 |
33 |
$840/sf |
36 |
31 |
Mar 4 |
39 |
$827/sf |
32 |
31 |
Mar 11 |
30 |
$857/sf |
43 |
37 |
Mar 18 |
34 |
$847/sf |
36 |
37 |
Mar 25 |
34 |
$848/sf |
43 |
43 |
Apr 1 |
23 |
$873/sf |
42 |
47 |
Apr 8 |
30 |
$884/sf |
37 |
47 |
Apr 15 |
32 |
$961/sf |
36 |
43 |
Apr 22 |
36 |
$964/sf |
31 |
37 |
Apr 29 |
44 |
$921/sf |
25 |
33 |
May 6 |
44 |
$921/sf |
30 |
36 |
May 13 |
46 |
$939/sf |
25 |
34 |
May 20 |
47 |
$965/sf |
24 |
38 |
May 27 |
47 |
$965/sf |
30 |
40 |
Jun 3 |
53 |
$1,006/sf |
32 |
36 |
Jun 10 |
61 |
$942/sf |
30 |
36 |
Jun 17 |
62 |
$909/sf |
30 |
37 |
Jun 24 |
62 |
$909/sf |
28 |
40 |
Jul 1 |
70 |
$883/sf |
30 |
43 |
Jul 8 |
67 |
$925/sf |
30 |
47 |
Jul 15 |
70 |
$888/sf |
31 |
51 |
Jul 22 |
61 |
$858/sf |
35 |
46 |
Jul 29 |
57 |
$859/sf |
38 |
50 |
Aug 5 |
56 |
$892/sf |
37 |
41 |
Aug 12 |
62 |
$895/sf |
39 |
40 |
Aug 19 |
67 |
$879/sf |
36 |
36 |
Aug 26 |
62 |
$899/sf |
39 |
41 |
Sep 2 |
52 |
$912/sf |
41 |
41 |
Sep 9 |
53 |
$889/sf |
37 |
37 |
Sep 16 |
50 |
$877/sf |
39 |
35 |
The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
Jan 2, 2024 |
54 |
$1,046/sf |
65 |
34 |
Jan 8 |
59 |
$1,034/sf |
57 |
30 |
Jan 15 |
69 |
$1,094/sf |
44 |
35 |
Jan 22 |
60 |
$1,108/sf |
42 |
45 |
Jan 29 |
65 |
$1,126/sf |
41 |
48 |
Feb 5 |
68 |
$1,120/sf |
31 |
50 |
Feb 12 |
60 |
$1,123/sf |
34 |
56 |
Feb 19 |
71 |
$1,130/sf |
29 |
56 |
Feb 26 |
64 |
$1,138/sf |
30 |
61 |
Mar 4 |
62 |
$1,202/sf |
33 |
55 |
Mar 11 |
61 |
$1,211/sf |
29 |
62 |
Mar 18 |
72 |
$1,143/sf |
32 |
53 |
Mar 25 |
70 |
$1,101/sf |
31 |
64 |
Apr 1 |
71 |
$1,049/sf |
31 |
63 |
Apr 8 |
68 |
$1,076/sf |
31 |
63 |
Apr 15 |
82 |
$1,058/sf |
33 |
55 |
Apr 22 |
81 |
$1,066/sf |
38 |
62 |
Apr 29 |
79 |
$1,076/sf |
34 |
64 |
May 6 |
77 |
$1,067/sf |
35 |
56 |
May 13 |
78 |
$1,069/sf |
38 |
58 |
May 20 |
93 |
$1,049/sf |
39 |
46 |
May 27 |
92 |
$1,053/sf |
39 |
47 |
Jun 3 |
105 |
$1,025/sf |
41 |
43 |
Jun 10 |
105 |
$1,035/sf |
40 |
53 |
Jun 17 |
107 |
$1,002/sf |
36 |
51 |
Jun 24 |
118 |
$1,034/sf |
35 |
58 |
Jul 1 |
111 |
$1,013/sf |
37 |
59 |
Jul 8 |
111 |
$1,019/sf |
41 |
58 |
Jul 15 |
120 |
$1,014/sf |
43 |
47 |
Jul 22 |
124 |
$972/sf |
41 |
47 |
Jul 29 |
124 |
$974/sf |
41 |
40 |
Aug 5 |
117 |
$978/sf |
43 |
44 |
Aug 12 |
114 |
$964/sf |
45 |
42 |
Aug 19 |
112 |
$982/sf |
45 |
43 |
Aug 26 |
107 |
$957/sf |
42 |
47 |
Sep 2 |
102 |
$945/sf |
44 |
49 |
Sep 9 |
101 |
$965/sf |
45 |
51 |
Sep 16 |
103 |
$982/sf |
43 |
50 |
The $3,000,000 – $4,000,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
Jan 2, 2024 |
33 |
$1,216/sf |
92 |
15 |
Jan 8 |
37 |
$1,248/sf |
83 |
15 |
Jan 15 |
42 |
$1,236/sf |
77 |
18 |
Jan 22 |
43 |
$1,283/sf |
77 |
17 |
Jan 29 |
42 |
$1,242/sf |
75 |
20 |
Feb 5 |
36 |
$1,363/sf |
73 |
25 |
Feb 12 |
40 |
$1,252/sf |
34 |
18 |
Feb 19 |
47 |
$1,515/sf |
45 |
17 |
Feb 26 |
50 |
$1,512/sf |
42 |
16 |
Mar 4 |
50 |
$1,588/sf |
44 |
19 |
Mar 11 |
50 |
$1,594/sf |
44 |
23 |
Mar 18 |
60 |
$1,537/sf |
38 |
22 |
Mar 25 |
59 |
$1,614/sf |
70 |
27 |
Apr 1 |
62 |
$1,660/sf |
76 |
26 |
Apr 8 |
65 |
$1,479/sf |
76 |
27 |
Apr 15 |
72 |
$1,442/sf |
70 |
26 |
Apr 22 |
70 |
$1,462/sf |
75 |
20 |
Apr 29 |
68 |
$1,434/sf |
75 |
25 |
May 6 |
67 |
$1,373/sf |
70 |
26 |
May 13 |
71 |
$1,355/sf |
68 |
25 |
May 20 |
78 |
$1,298/sf |
63 |
24 |
May 27 |
79 |
$1,267/sf |
66 |
26 |
Jun 3 |
75 |
$1,272/sf |
65 |
26 |
Jun 10 |
81 |
$1,248/sf |
62 |
26 |
Jun 17 |
89 |
$1,195/sf |
59 |
28 |
Jun 24 |
84 |
$1,229/sf |
61 |
33 |
Jul 1 |
87 |
$1,227/sf |
62 |
31 |
Jul 8 |
77 |
$1,278/sf |
68 |
33 |
Jul 15 |
91 |
$1,263/sf |
63 |
31 |
Jul 22 |
82 |
$1,272/sf |
68 |
31 |
Jul 29 |
84 |
$1,221/sf |
67 |
25 |
Aug 5 |
80 |
$1,180/sf |
71 |
22 |
Aug 12 |
80 |
$1,196/sf |
70 |
24 |
Aug 19 |
80 |
$1,145/sf |
45 |
26 |
Aug 26 |
80 |
$1,118/sf |
44 |
22 |
Sep 2 |
81 |
$1,144/sf |
47 |
23 |
Sep 9 |
84 |
$1,143/sf |
46 |
23 |
Sep 16 |
84 |
$1,168/sf |
47 |
23 |
The $4,000,000+ Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
Jan 2, 2024 |
139 |
$1,858/sf |
116 |
20 |
Jan 8 |
151 |
$1,896/sf |
109 |
18 |
Jan 15 |
157 |
$1,879/sf |
106 |
22 |
Jan 22 |
159 |
$1,824/sf |
104 |
27 |
Jan 29 |
162 |
$1,758/sf |
108 |
31 |
Feb 5 |
162 |
$1,718/sf |
108 |
30 |
Feb 12 |
154 |
$1,705/sf |
107 |
34 |
Feb 19 |
168 |
$1,685/sf |
107 |
24 |
Feb 26 |
175 |
$1,691/sf |
105 |
26 |
Mar 4 |
166 |
$1,692/sf |
97 |
36 |
Mar 11 |
178 |
$1,663/sf |
90 |
37 |
Mar 18 |
179 |
$1,691/sf |
90 |
29 |
Mar 25 |
177 |
$1,693/sf |
83 |
34 |
Apr 1 |
176 |
$1,713/sf |
87 |
31 |
Apr 8 |
177 |
$1,771/sf |
82 |
37 |
Apr 15 |
179 |
$1,731/sf |
88 |
40 |
Apr 22 |
183 |
$1,733/sf |
85 |
42 |
Apr 29 |
187 |
$1,765/sf |
81 |
42 |
May 6 |
191 |
$1,751/sf |
83 |
42 |
May 13 |
184 |
$1,754/sf |
84 |
47 |
May 20 |
193 |
$1,734/sf |
81 |
45 |
May 27 |
202 |
$1,716/sf |
78 |
46 |
Jun 3 |
203 |
$1,694/sf |
74 |
43 |
Jun 10 |
206 |
$1,716/sf |
70 |
43 |
Jun 17 |
204 |
$1,666/sf |
68 |
41 |
Jun 24 |
208 |
$1,678/sf |
68 |
44 |
Jul 1 |
213 |
$1,673/sf |
70 |
35 |
Jul 8 |
212 |
$1,674/sf |
72 |
29 |
Jul 15 |
217 |
$1,637/sf |
73 |
26 |
Jul 22 |
218 |
$1,633/sf |
77 |
32 |
Jul 29 |
221 |
$1,626/sf |
80 |
32 |
Aug 5 |
222 |
$1,627/sf |
83 |
27 |
Aug 12 |
217 |
$1,624/sf |
81 |
25 |
Aug 19 |
209 |
$1,633/sf |
83 |
33 |
Aug 26 |
209 |
$1,617/sf |
85 |
37 |
Sep 2 |
207 |
$1,623/sf |
82 |
39 |
Sep 9 |
204 |
$1,662/sf |
85 |
38 |
Sep 16 |
201 |
$1,658/sf |
86 |
37 |
NSDCC Weekly New Listings and New Pendings
Week |
New Listings |
New Pendings |
Total Actives |
Total Pendings |
Jan 2, 2024 |
18 |
10 |
255 |
113 |
Jan 8 |
43 |
12 |
278 |
100 |
Jan 15 |
52 |
20 |
305 |
102 |
Jan 22 |
50 |
29 |
308 |
122 |
Jan 29 |
44 |
32 |
314 |
140 |
Feb 5 |
44 |
33 |
312 |
149 |
Feb 12 |
37 |
34 |
292 |
159 |
Feb 19 |
53 |
24 |
326 |
143 |
Feb 26 |
45 |
37 |
324 |
151 |
Mar 4 |
52 |
45 |
332 |
166 |
Mar 11 |
53 |
26 |
331 |
165 |
Mar 18 |
62 |
32 |
355 |
159 |
Mar 25 |
45 |
46 |
348 |
186 |
Apr 1 |
37 |
42 |
340 |
183 |
Apr 8 |
58 |
36 |
352 |
191 |
Apr 15 |
58 |
29 |
378 |
184 |
Apr 22 |
44 |
36 |
384 |
179 |
Apr 29 |
67 |
36 |
393 |
185 |
May 6 |
58 |
48 |
394 |
183 |
May 13 |
47 |
34 |
395 |
186 |
May 20 |
67 |
26 |
429 |
171 |
May 27 |
57 |
36 |
435 |
179 |
Jun 3 |
55 |
26 |
449 |
166 |
Jun 10 |
77 |
40 |
469 |
175 |
Jun 17 |
64 |
37 |
474 |
175 |
Jun 24 |
78 |
29 |
489 |
192 |
Jul 1 |
51 |
38 |
496 |
188 |
Jul 8 |
41 |
37 |
479 |
184 |
Jul 15 |
52 |
29 |
509 |
172 |
Jul 22 |
43 |
42 |
495 |
172 |
Jul 29 |
50 |
23 |
503 |
156 |
Aug 5 |
52 |
40 |
492 |
148 |
Aug 12 |
49 |
38 |
489 |
150 |
Aug 19 |
63 |
29 |
486 |
162 |
Aug 26 |
56 |
38 |
477 |
167 |
Sep 2 |
56 |
33 |
465 |
167 |
Sep 9 |
34 |
27 |
463 |
168 |
Sep 16 |
53 |
33 |
465 |
163 |
NSDCC List Price Quartiles
Week |
1st Quartile |
Median List Price |
3rd Quartile |
Jan 2, 2024 |
$2,549,888 |
$4,444,000 |
$8,350,000 |
Jan 8 |
$2,572,444 |
$4,447,000 |
$8,097,500 |
Jan 15 |
$2,499,000 |
$4,200,000 |
$7,950,000 |
Jan 22 |
$2,429,000 |
$4,250,000 |
$7,450,000 |
Jan 29 |
$2,399,000 |
$4,225,000 |
$7,495,000 |
Feb 5 |
$2,398,000 |
$4,272,500 |
$7,495,000 |
Feb 12 |
$2,499,800 |
$4,297,500 |
$7,495,000 |
Feb 19 |
$2,499,400 |
$4,200,000 |
$6,972,500 |
Feb 26 |
$2,649,400 |
$4,350,000 |
$7,300,000 |
Mar 4 |
$2,525,000 |
$4,225,000 |
$7,149,500 |
Mar 11 |
$2,649,000 |
$4,295,000 |
$7,495,000 |
Mar 18 |
$2,500,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$6,750,000 |
Mar 25 |
$2,680,000 |
$4,097,499 |
$6,750,000 |
Apr 1 |
$2,785,000 |
$4,150,000 |
$6,999,999 |
Apr 8 |
$2,680,000 |
$4,047,500 |
$6,999,000 |
Apr 15 |
$2,570,000 |
$3,899,500 |
$6,797,500 |
Apr 22 |
$2,499,000 |
$3,982,500 |
$6,495,000 |
Apr 29 |
$2,399,000 |
$3,990,000 |
$6,750,000 |
May 6 |
$2,485,000 |
$3,995,000 |
$6,825,000 |
May 13 |
$2,475,000 |
$3,895,000 |
$6,900,000 |
May 20 |
$2,420,000 |
$3,750,000 |
$6,480,000 |
May 27 |
$2,495,000 |
$3,840,000 |
$6,695,000 |
Jun 3 |
$2,475,000 |
$3,749,000 |
$6,395,000 |
Jun 10 |
$2,388,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$6,187,000 |
Jun 17 |
$2,412,500 |
$3,599,500 |
$5,995,000 |
Jun 24 |
$2,350,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$6,398,000 |
Jul 1 |
$2,398,000 |
$3,600,000 |
$6,400,000 |
Jul 8 |
$2,399,000 |
$3,650,000 |
$6,500,000 |
Jul 15 |
$2,399,999 |
$3,500,000 |
$6,398,000 |
Jul 22 |
$2,399,000 |
$3,695,000 |
$6,398,000 |
Jul 29 |
$2,375,000 |
$3,650,000 |
$6,187,000 |
Aug 5 |
$2,350,000 |
$3,699,500 |
$6,295,000 |
Aug 12 |
$2,349,000 |
$3,650,000 |
$5,995,000 |
Aug 19 |
$2,315,000 |
$3,595,000 |
$5,995,000 |
Aug 26 |
$2,299,999 |
$3,649,000 |
$5,999,000 |
Sep 2 |
$2,350,000 |
$3,698,000 |
$6,495,000 |
Sep 9 |
$2,300,000 |
$3,700,000 |
$6,495,000 |
Sep 16 |
$2,345,000 |
$3,695,000 |
$6,250,000 |
Jim is a long-time local realtor who comments daily here on his blog, bubbleinfo.com which began in September, 2005. Stick around!