Carmel Valley Estate

The 1+ acre lot was probably what sold this one.

Part of a nice flurry of July sales that are inline with the monthly sales counts in March-June. But the median sales price has a month-over-month change of -17%, which will cause the doomers to flip out. But it’s only because there were a bunch of lower-end sales this month.

Your home’s value didn’t drop 17% in the last 30 days!

More On Home Prices & Appreciation

More plain talk from Steve about home prices and future appreciation rates. He is talking to realtors.

What I sent to Steve:

Hi Steve,

I enjoyed your deep dive today and also put it on my blog where local realtors are known to hang out.

You mentioned that you are studying the locked-in effect.

I don’t think it has the effect people think it does, and I’m not sure there is any effect.


  1. The extreme difficulty of finding a superior home.
  2. The extreme difficulty of winning a superior home, once you find one.
  3. Paying capital-gains taxes on the sale of the previous home – and usually six-figures of taxes.
  4. Higher property taxes for most, even in California.
  5. Start the 30 years over again on the mortgage – which those extra years should be a bigger hurdle than the higher rate for those who analyze the differences in costs.
  6. Then pack up the stuff and uproot everybody and everything from the previous house to start fresh in the new place….and hurry up with the $25,000 to $50,000 in repairs and improvements that literally every buyer has to do when buying a resale home.

We will only know if there is a locked-in effect if rates plunge to 3% again, which is very unlikely. So it’s all just fodder for the twitterverse.

But if rates did plunge – even to 4% – then we’ll find out that homeowners are still reluctant to move.

Then the problem will be re-labeled as the Forever-Home Effect.

Just my 2 cents!

Inventory Watch

It looks like the inventory between La Jolla and Carlsbad may have peaked for 2023. After the inventory shortage we’ve experienced, it’s hard to imagine a surge of new listings in August/September.

The pendings count is at their highest point of the year! Hopefully we can eek out another few weeks of heightened activity before both the buyers and sellers shut it down for the year.


Instant Homes

The thought of buying a home that is truly move-in ready would be a natural fit for today’s home buyers. Our staging company is willing to sell everything they use to decorate our listings!

Developers frequently stage properties, giving potential buyers insight into what living there might actually be like. But these days, the trend is toward selling residences fully furnished, right down to the Frette sheets and Lavazza espresso maker. For well-heeled clients, these “instant homes” offer the ultimate in convenience, with the added caché of a big-name designer.

Read the full article here:


Aviara Point

7141 Aviara Drive, Carlsbad

4 br + den, 4.5 ba, 4,978sf

YB: 2004

Lot size = 10,835sf

LP = $4,400,000 – now pending!

Are you searching for a sensational luxury estate with captivating ocean and sunset views? Here you go! Located in the exclusive gated Aviara Point, this exceptional custom estate has a modern contemporary feel enriched with sophisticated details found only in the finest homes. Four ensuite bedrooms plus den (all with fireplaces), new LaCantina doors throughout, new owned solar, stylish chef’s kitchen with walk-in pantry, high ceilings, spa with views, and plenty of natural light! Last sale across the street was $4M no ocean view!

Realtor Interview Questions For Buyers

Because there are pending class-action lawsuits that intend to “decouple” the commissions, home buyers will soon be paying their buyer-agent directly for their services. Here are questions to ask to make sure you Get Good Help:

How many homes have you sold in the last 12 months, and what is the mix between buyers and sellers?

What is your specialty?

How much do you charge?

Will I be working with you, or your assistants?

When representing a buyer, how would you describe a successful sale?

What is your strategy for winning a bidding war?

How can I avoid a bidding war?

What do you offer your buyer clients who are out-of-state?

What are your tips on financing?

What makes you better than your competitors?

What do you do to make sure I don’t buy a lemon?

Can you get me an off-market deal?

Will you sell me your hot new listings before putting them on the open market?

What do realtors do?

Do we have a written contract between us?

How long will it take to find a home to buy?

Do you utilize video?

How much of a discount can I expect off the list price?

If I find the home, do you discount your fee?

Can we contact a couple of your recent buyers?

What is your best general advice for buyers?

Add your other questions in the comment section!

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