San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Feb

For those who like to look back fondly at ancient history and reminisce about what used to be, I present to you the local Case-Shiller Index. About the time that the market starts to sputter in mid-to-late summer, we will be getting the spring data that will look red hot.

“The results released today pre-date the disruptions in the commercial banking industry which began in early March. Although forecasts are mixed, so far the Federal Reserve seems focused on its inflation-reduction targets, which suggests that interest rates may remain elevated, at least in the near-term. Mortgage financing and the prospect of economic weakness are therefore likely to remain a headwind for housing prices for at least the next several months.”


San Diego County’s median home price rose 5.3 percent in March — reversing nine months of declines — to $790,000, according to CoreLogic data released today. The region’s median, the point at which half the homes sold for more and half for less, is still down 1.3 percent annually. Rising mortgage rates had softened the red-hot market in recent months. Yet real estate agents said competition over limited supply, and realization that rates weren’t decreasing, pushed buyers to make a move.

Del Mar Bluff Front

This 4,615sf home on a 50’x160′ lot just closed for $13,000,000.

The railroad tracks are in front of this property but not forever, and when they’re gone the value will spike. The cliff is wide here so room for bluff failure. Click on full screen for maximum impact!

Inventory Watch

We’ve already had 101 sales this month, and the weekly counts of new pendings have been solid.

The NSDCC Under-$3,000,000 Market has 97 actives and 109 pendings!

The median list price in the 3rd quartile is up almost $1,000,000 since the start of the year!

Think what would happen if mortgage rates did come down!

We probably wouldn’t have any additional inventory because lower rates would be a result of a recession, which would still cause potential sellers to think it’s a bad time to sell.

These market conditions are probably going to be like this for a while.


NSDCC Spring Market Update

In this graph from two weeks ago we saw that there were 28% of the NSDCC detached-home sales in March that closed over their list price. Because it’s one of my favorite ways to judge the market conditions, I did a check on the numbers for April so far:

NSDCC April Sales (preliminary)

Closed sales: 85

Closed over the list price: 36%

It’s not just on the lower end either:

Of the 85 closings, 41% were all-cash!

Buyer Testimonial

Are you wondering what it is like being a buyer these days – and how we can asisist you?

This is a good example. Our buyer above made offers on seven different homes over the last year before winning the right home, at the right price. We survived a five-offer bidding war when the sellers accepted our offer of $1,340,000, then we worked them down by $50,000 after our inspection.

At $1,290,000 for 1,801sf, I think it will be one of the better buys in Carlsbad this year:


This street is the next block over, and though these are a little bigger, we loved the prices:

We can help you too!

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