I mentioned in my very first blog post seventeen years ago that all it takes to achieve 20% to 25% annual appreciation is for everyone to pay a little more than the last guy. The same principle works in reverse too.
San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes
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Bob Shiller regularly touts the Case-Shiller futures market but it’s a gambling hall if you ask me. Here’s what those bettors think about our local index:
IF they are accurate about the future of San Diego home pricing, then either you can sell your house now for today’s prices, or wait until 2025 and sell for about the same.
“IF they are accurate about the future of San Diego home pricing, then either you can sell your house now for today’s prices, or wait until 2025 and sell for about the same.”
That’s pretty much how I see things going.
Unless banks turn on the foreclosure machine again. Which would be incredibly difficult with California politics as they are right now.
If “homeowners” can live in their house for months/years at a time without making a mortgage payment. Economic downturns will only pause the upward pricing trend. In Economics this concept is called Price Rigidity. Traders and Finance people call it Prices are Sticky (usually on the way down.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nominal_rigidity
Banks will foreclose without mercy this time if their balance sheets are healthy enough to sustain the damage .
The only reason they dragged the foreclosure process post 2008 was because they were themselves bankrupt.
We had to give them trillions in bail outs and get rid of the mark to market rule to save them from themselves .
Things are different now, Fed is subsidizing them directly by paying billions in interest, absolutely criminal.