Towns With the Best Quality of Life

by | Jun 23, 2022 | Where to Move | 0 comments

We are #12 only because of the higher cost of housing.

According to usnews.com, the best places to live in the U.S. for quality of life are:

  1. Ann Arbor, Michigan
  2. Boulder, Colorado
  3. San Jose, California
  4. Naples, Florida
  5. Trenton, New Jersey
  6. Madison, Wisconsin
  7. Boston, Mass
  8. Fort Collins, Colorado
  9. Reno, Nevada
  10. Portland, Maine
  11. Hartford, Conn
  12. San Diego, California
  13. Santa Barbara, California
  14. Santa Rosa, California
  15. Green Bay, Wisconsin
  16. Rochester, New York
  17. Boise, Idaho
  18. Grand Rapids, Michigan
  19. Sarasota, Florida
  20. Lancaster, Pennsylvania

https://realestate.usnews.com/places/rankings/best-places-to-live-for-quality-of-life

Olivenhain Single Level

by | Jun 22, 2022 | Bubbleinfo TV, Olivenhain | 1 comment

After she took five listings at the same price, I joked with the listing agent here that maybe every house was worth $3,200,000 now!  I don’t think any of them were worth $3 million before this year, and this is the only one that has closed under list:

Limit on Doom

by | Jun 22, 2022 | Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions | 11 comments

Hat tip to long-time reader Todd who we saw at the game last night – we did bug out early, but it was only to pick up Kayla at the airport. The Padres walked it off in the 11th inning!

Meanwhile, people are wondering where the local real estate market is going to end up.

For conditions to change much, sellers would have to panic, and dump on price. Otherwise, we will just be taking a leisurely stroll through Plateau City, admiring all the homes that aren’t selling.

Here are the favorite zip codes around North County – SE Carlsbad (92009), Encinitas (92024), Carmel Valley (92130), and Rancho Santa Fe (92067).

A few months ago, we had the lowest number of active listings of all-time:

While lately the number of the active listings have been growing steadily, they would have to double from this point before getting into the danger zone – but we’re going to run out of time before that happens.

Now that doom is being broadcast everywhere, sellers will decide that ‘now isn’t a good time to sell’, and by August they will quit listing their homes for sale.

There are 396 NSDCC active listings today (and 180 pendings), and we might hit 500 before August, but that will be the peak for 2022.

The market won’t keep getting worse – it will just taper off for rest of the year as buyers AND sellers lose interest. Instead, we’ll be talking about the playoffs and our first-place Padres going to the World Series!

Over List, June (Preliminary)

by | Jun 21, 2022 | 2022, Frenzy, Over List | 1 comment

We are having fewer sales between Carlsbad and La Jolla, but about the same percentage are closing over the list price as we’ve seen in the previous months of 2022:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, June (Month-to-Date)

Number of Sales: 104

Number of Sales Closed Over List: 68 (65%)

Average List Price of Over Lists: $2,298,732

Average Sales Price of Over Lists: $2,448,509

SP:LP = 107%

Median List Price of Over Lists: $2,100,000

Median Sales Price of Over Lists: $2,267,500

SP:LP = 108%

Can we say that the list pricing has come down much? Not really.

The median days-on market of those that closed over list was 8 days, so pretty much all of the buyers were into the higher mortgage-rate era when they made their decision.

I know it’s tempting for waiting buyers to think it’s going to get better, later – but so far, all that’s happened is fewer sales.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The Final Stretch

by | Jun 20, 2022 | Bubbleinfo TV, La Jolla, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments

We are wrapping up in La Jolla this week!

The Beach-Barber Tract is probably my favorite neighborhood in La Jolla, and is an eclectic mix of new and old that are close to both the beach AND village.  A block down from our sale is this teardown that just sold for $6,000,000.  The seller also owned the house next door to it, and he was the one who bought Mitt’s home – and just moved across the street!

Frenzy Monitor

by | Jun 20, 2022 | Actives/Pendings, Frenzy Monitor, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings | 2 comments

Let’s break down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give you a closer look at the neighborhood stats.  We’re going to have more active listings simply because the the list prices were all based on red-hot frenzy conditions (comps + 5% or more), and we’re past the red-hot days.

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

Town/Area
Zip Code
Feb 27
Mar 16
May 5
Jun 20
Cardiff
92007
5/7
6/4
7/7
13/5
Carlsbad NW
92008
6/9
8/10
15/10
27/10
Carlsbad SE
92009
15/29
8/33
20/27
47/25
Carlsbad NE
92010
1/5
2/6
7/14
17/11
Carlsbad SW
92011
2/11
4/12
8/16
19/19
Carmel Valley
92130
10/31
10/30
22/25
50/18
Del Mar
92014
15/32
17/10
24/13
30/8
Encinitas
92024
15/32
17/28
24/32
46/26
La Jolla
92037
53/38
55/35
51/32
72/24
Rancho Santa Fe
92067
45/22
47/24
49/22
52/25
Rancho Santa Fe
92091
2/2
5/2
2/0
3/2
Solana Bch
92075
6/6
3/10
9/7
12/5
NSDCC
All Above
179/205
182/204
238/205
388/178

The selling season started early in 2022, and was cooking by the end of February. Let’s group the different areas based on how their pendings are holding up.

Frenzy-ish:

Carlsbad SW – A few houses finally went up for sale, and buyers responded.

Rancho Santa Fe – The active listings aren’t growing like in the other high-end areas of Del Mar and La Jolla, and the number of pendings are very impressive. It was once normal when the Ranch had a 10:1 ratio between actives and pendings!

Normal-ish:

Everyone else, except……

Crash Zone

Carmel Valley – which has always had more pendings than actives over the last two years – and sometimes twice as many pendings!  While having 50 actives and 18 pendings anywhere else would be a win, in the CV it feels like a meltdown.

Here they are:

(I tried to sort those by price order, but all they have is sort by date added)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This nonsense about every buyer paying way over list price has to stop.  If the SP:LP was around 100% we’d be elated, yet it was 111%, 109%, and 109% in the February-April stretch.

So far in June, the SP:LP is 107% for the 104 detached-home sales between Carlsbad and La Jolla!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

We can also track the average market times too.  Any upward trends here would indicate market slowing – it’s early so nothing too startling yet:

The hottest of the red-hot was in 2020, when we had 400+ pendings from June 22nd to November 30th – with a peak of 491 pendings on 9/7/2020. Today we have 178 pendings.

Inventory Watch

by | Jun 20, 2022 | Actives/Pendings, Inventory, North County Coastal | 1 comment

Buyers thought this was a holiday weekend, and sellers didn’t!

It was the week that the actives-to-pendings ratio between La Jolla and Carlsbad crossed back over the ideal 2:1 range, which is what we have observed to be the sign of a healthy market in the past.

Last week: 354/202, or 1.75

This week: 388/177, or 2.19

Here is the breakdown by price range:

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

Price Range
Active Listings
Pending Listings
A/P
0-$1.5M
46
22
2.1
$1.5-$2.0M
57
41
1.4
$2.0-$3.0M
91
59
1.5
$3.0-$4.0M
52
26
2.0
$4.0M+
148
35
4.2

The high-end firmly believes that it takes longer to sell the uber-expensive homes, so they are happy to wait for their magic moment – and typically have the resources to do so.

I wrote offers for buyers around the $2,000,000 range, and both listing agents claimed to have multiple offers.  It may take longer to reach an accepted offer these days as listing agents wait for better deals to arrive, so let’s check back on the pendings in a couple of days.

This is what Plateau City looks like – plenty of unsolds preferring to sit, than reduce.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

The $0 – $1,500,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
9
$832/sf
35
36
Jan 10
9
$766/sf
28
29
Jan 17
13
$773/sf
26
27
Jan 24
9
$818/sf
15
29
Jan 31
14
$752/sf
14
31
Feb 7
13
$774/sf
12
32
Feb 14
11
$826/sf
12
35
Feb 21
7
$889/sf
17
38
Feb 28
12
$888/sf
17
33
Mar 7
9
$1,017/sf
21
33
Mar 14
14
$847/sf
18
31
Mar 21
8
$912/sf
26
36
Mar 28
10
$914/sf
25
28
Apr 4
10
$782/sf
33
34
Apr 11
19
$733/sf
21
36
Apr 18
16
$795/sf
28
34
Apr 25
18
$891/sf
27
30
May 2
22
$822/sf
23
31
May 9
24
$887/sf
17
46
May 16
25
$783/sf
22
25
May 23
29
$782/sf
23
29
May 30
30
$782/sf
24
28
Jun 6
34
$763/sf
25
28
Jun 13
33
$802/sf
29
29
Jun 20
48
$774/sf
28
22

The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
8
$842/sf
52
36
Jan 10
13
$751/sf
28
29
Jan 17
16
$736/sf
33
27
Jan 24
16
$801/sf
17
27
Jan 31
15
$696/sf
14
34
Feb 7
15
$765/sf
17
34
Feb 14
10
$726/sf
19
38
Feb 21
19
$715/sf
15
39
Feb 28
9
$660/sf
12
46
Mar 7
16
$789/sf
15
46
Mar 14
17
$837/sf
8
44
Mar 21
18
$867/sf
11
43
Mar 28
14
$838/sf
15
48
Apr 4
18
$762/sf
25
42
Apr 11
23
$774/sf
15
39
Apr 18
22
$792/sf
17
41
Apr 25
18
$810/sf
20
41
May 2
27
$809/sf
17
37
May 9
33
$837/sf
17
46
May 16
39
$793/sf
19
44
May 23
43
$793/sf
22
44
May 30
36
$843/sf
23
36
Jun 6
43
$817/sf
23
41
Jun 13
49
$845/sf
24
42
Jun 20
57
$817/sf
24
41

The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
18
$1,080/sf
127
43
Jan 10
23
$1,038/sf
85
37
Jan 17
26
$1,044/sf
80
41
Jan 24
28
$1,015/sf
37
42
Jan 31
22
$949/sf
38
47
Feb 7
26
$919/sf
29
42
Feb 14
22
$997/sf
37
49
Feb 21
21
$966/sf
33
54
Feb 28
26
$905/sf
32
57
Mar 7
29
$922/sf
28
57
Mar 14
20
$852/sf
26
58
Mar 21
17
$928/sf
26
60
Mar 28
34
$927/sf
12
65
Apr 4
32
$927/sf
20
69
Apr 11
44
$910/sf
17
62
Apr 18
48
$997/sf
19
66
Apr 25
42
$1,092/sf
18
73
May 2
54
$995/sf
19
70
May 9
61
$910/sf
20
73
May 16
64
$977/sf
22
69
May 23
82
$953/sf
25
59
May 30
78
$951/sf
27
56
Jun 6
94
$963/sf
27
58
Jun 13
98
$961/sf
28
70
Jun 20
91
$935/sf
32
59

The $3,000,000 – $4,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
19
$1,230/sf
90
26
Jan 10
22
$1,210/sf
76
25
Jan 17
19
$1,207/sf
86
23
Jan 24
17
$1,129/sf
92
24
Jan 31
21
$1,172/sf
70
22
Feb 7
19
$1,169/sf
67
25
Feb 14
19
$1,234/sf
65
28
Feb 21
21
$1,279/sf
69
28
Feb 28
22
$1,214/sf
64
25
Mar 7
27
$1,295/sf
60
24
Mar 14
27
$1,201/sf
65
27
Mar 21
23
$1,282/sf
69
31
Mar 28
25
$1,253/sf
67
30
Apr 4
30
$1,199/sf
61
27
Apr 11
32
$1,174/sf
62
31
Apr 18
33
$1,216/sf
68
31
Apr 25
33
$1,219/sf
63
33
May 2
37
$1,164/sf
50
36
May 9
33
$1,132/sf
57
32
May 16
40
$1,119/sf
53
32
May 23
40
$1,135/sf
57
27
May 30
40
$1,178/sf
61
28
Jun 6
43
$1,224/sf
56
28
Jun 13
48
$1,184/sf
52
28
Jun 20
52
$1,117/sf
53
26

The $4,000,000+ Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
100
$1,884/sf
128
30
Jan 10
105
$1,864/sf
113
29
Jan 17
109
$1,763/sf
110
34
Jan 24
105
$2,130/sf
114
42
Jan 31
102
$2,114/sf
118
53
Feb 7
109
$2,000/sf
108
50
Feb 14
108
$2,005/sf
109
47
Feb 21
113
$2,008/sf
103
43
Feb 28
111
$1,991/sf
101
47
Mar 7
115
$1,904/sf
91
39
Mar 14
121
$1,893/sf
95
43
Mar 21
116
$1,905/sf
97
44
Mar 28
104
$1,966/sf
97
59
Apr 4
103
$1,929/sf
97
56
Apr 11
106
$1,906/sf
97
55
Apr 18
108
$1,874/sf
100
51
Apr 25
116
$1,829/sf
97
38
May 2
117
$1,781/sf
95
32
May 9
116
$1,831/sf
96
36
May 16
124
$1,854/sf
91
39
May 23
125
$1,855/sf
92
36
May 30
129
$1,706/sf
93
39
Jun 6
131
$1,740/sf
89
33
Jun 13
132
$1,793/sf
86
38
Jun 20
148
$1,772/sf
84
35

NSDCC Weekly New Listings and New Pendings

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Total Actives
Total Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
17
14
152
164
Jan 10
39
18
167
142
Jan 17
34
29
179
145
Jan 24
41
40
173
157
Jan 31
43
40
173
182
Feb 7
43
38
179
179
Feb 14
44
49
168
193
Feb 21
51
38
180
197
Feb 28
39
39
179
205
Mar 7
54
37
191
195
Mar 14
48
51
195
196
Mar 21
39
46
178
207
Mar 28
53
50
185
224
Apr 4
46
40
190
220
Apr 11
61
39
221
213
Apr 18
41
46
224
212
Apr 25
50
43
224
205
May 2
76
37
256
196
May 9
59
46
262
207
May 16
78
48
286
200
May 23
61
42
312
192
May 30
54
44
307
183
Jun 6
70
31
338
183
Jun 13
60
41
354
202
Jun 20
71
25
388
177

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