Carlsbad $1,000,000 Over List!

Well, the way it’s been going, it was bound to happen!

At least this house was fully remodeled, had a guest house (with double-tap kegerator!) and large pool all laid out nicely on a half-acre lot in the Ranch. This is the one I featured previously with the dozens of attendees at the open houses.

Here are the comps for the neighborhood – what was a trend in the upper-$2,000,000s in the second half of 2021 sure popped up in a hurry to $4 million+.  The pending sale had “several offers and is way over list”, according to the listing agent:

The KRG Minor Tune-Up

It can’t be said strongly enough how important the visual impact is to selling houses in the Frenzy of 2022.

The action is so fast, and with major life-changing decisions being made in minutes, that it is smart for sellers to take advantage and maximize the appeal before going on the open market. You have to sell the buyers online, then again when they arrive in person, and then clinch it when they go home and look at it again online. Photos AND videos are the ideal answer!


Here are the before-and-after photos of our latest listing:

If you are thinking of selling, consider that the combining our tune-ups with my open-bidding process is the best way to ensure a top-dollar sale!  Let’s discuss it! Call or text me today at 858-997-3801.

Jim’s 10,000th

Check out our new listing in Carmel Valley!

13010 Brixton Pl., Carmel Valley 92130

3 br/2.5 ba, 1,804sf

YB: 1989

LP = $1,750,000

Location is everything! Enjoy this end-of-culdesac gem that is just steps from Torrey Pines High School (so close you won’t need to buy your kid a car!) and an easy stroll to Del Mar Highlands & One Paseo! Totally renovated with newer kitchen & baths, Pella Pro-line designer wood windows, new paint & carpet, new light fixtures, and new landscaping! No rentback needed at closing either – just bring your toothbrush and move right in! Wow!

I’ll be there 12-3pm this weekend for open house – stop on by!

P.S. This is my 10,000th blog post!


The consumers’ fascination with the zestimates has never been greater! With home prices detached from comps, the zestimate is the only other measuring stick for both buyers or sellers – right or wrong!

Impact of Higher Prices & Rates

Everyone is worried about rising rates, and their impact on the future of the market. The combination of higher rates AND higher prices is dramatic when compared to just a year ago.

Here is a comparison between the NSDCC closed sales between Feb. 1st and March 29th:

Median List Price
Median Sales Price
30-Yr Fixed Rate
Monthly Pmt on 80% of MSP

Let’s set aside that the 2022 median sales price is $250,000 higher than the median list price.

The monthly payment is 72% higher than last year!

It means that the market will be increasingly determined by the affluent. Those buyers who are payment sensitive can stay in the game by opting for an adjustable-rate mortgage and start at 2.375% for ten years, or wait it out – which will be a long time, and maybe forever.

What could slow/stop the market is a change of psychology in the affluent buyers.

They can use a bigger down payment or pay all-cash to offset higher prices and rates, unless they decide to wait-and-see themselves.  But if they don’t own a house here yet, their desire to move here will be the determining factor.

The market will be made by the affluent out-of-towners!

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, January

The prognosticators said prices would soften in 2022, but instead they have ‘reaccelerated’. Now the guessers are expecting the higher mortgage rates to slow down the runaway train – see below.

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes

Observation Month
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
Jan ’20
Jan ’21
Jan ’22

Our 383.92 is the non-adjusted; the seasonally adjusted index was 389.19 in January! From cnbc:

After cooling off ever so slightly toward the end of last year, home price gains reaccelerated in January.

Home prices nationally rose 19.2% year-over-year in January, up from 18.9% in December, according to the S%P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index. The 10-city Composite annual increase was 17.5%, up from 17.1% in the previous month. The 20-city composite rose 19.1%, up from 18.6% in December.

Phoenix, Tampa and Miami saw the biggest annual gains at 32.6%, 30.8% and 28.1%, respectively. Sixteen of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending January 2022 versus the year ending December 2021.

Washington, D.C., Minneapolis and Chicago saw the smallest annual gain, although they were all still up double digits from a year ago.

Tight supply and strong demand appear to be outweighing rising mortgage rates, which would usually take some of the heat out of housing.

While the index is a three-month running average, mortgage rates began to climb in January. The average rate on the 30-year fixed ended 2021 at around 3.25% and ended January at 3.68% according to Mortgage News Daily. It is now flirting with 5%.

“The macroeconomic environment is evolving rapidly. Declining COVID cases and a resumption of general economic activity has stoked inflation, and the Federal Reserve has begun to increase interest rates in response. We may soon begin to see the impact of increasing mortgage rates on home prices,” said Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Higher mortgage rates have already started to affect sales in the first months of the year. Pending home sales, which measure signed contracts on existing homes, have now fallen for four straight months, according to the National Association of Realtors.

“The monthly payment for a median-priced home has jumped 30% in the past year, far outpacing even fast-rising consumer prices, up almost 8% from a year ago,” said George Ratiu, senior economist at Realtor.com in a release. “While the small number of homes-for-sale will keep upward pressure on prices as we move through the Spring buying season, I expect conditions to undergo noticeable adjustments in the months ahead.”

Inventory Watch

Bill says that the national inventory bottomed in the beginning of March, but locally the raging demand is picking up the additional choices.  This should be a big week for closings, so we’ll see how it balances out next week, but statistically the trend of pendings is about as strong as possible (purple line above).

Let’s also note that the 30-year mortgage rate (with no points) has been over 4.0% for 30 days and the number of pendings keeps climbing.

From Zillow:




San Diego Overvalued?

Alternative headline: “Four areas so affluent that home prices and incomes are completely disconnected.”

Comparing the median sale price to house-buying power in all top 50 markets reveals that 4 markets are considered “overvalued”. “Overvalued” is defined by a market where the median sale price > house-buying power. Most markets still “undervalued.”

House-buying power is calculated by using a city’s annual median household income, assuming that a household spends one-third of their income on a mortgage, assuming a 5% down payment, and considering the current (Jan. 2022) 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rate.

Oceanfront Bachelor Pad

Before announcing their shocking divorce, Bill and Melinda Gates reportedly shelled out a whopping $43 million for an oceanfront estate in San Diego — the latest hot spot in California.

But it looks like Gates, 66, is the one to snag the idyllic property for his own use — and he’s customizing it to a T, local sources told The Post.

The initial six-bedroom, 3.5-bathroom estate, which spanned 5,800sf, has been completely demolished and locals claim it’s being rebuilt from the ground up at the direction of the Microsoft tycoon himself.

Gates has allegedly stopped by twice in the last few months with his two bulletproof suburban security details to check on the project, according to neighbors who are not happy about all the disruptions.

“It’s been a nuisance,” one neighbor said.

“They make a lot of noise, my baby can’t sleep,” another neighbor explained. “It’s become a real hindrance on the whole neighborhood.”

More photos and story here:


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