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San Diego fell out of the top three cities for annual change – we’re down to #6 for October. But we have the highest home prices of those six cities!  Though every region had double-digit YoY gains, a few cities (Boston, Denver, Minneapolis, Portland, San Francisco, and Washington) look like they’ve pulled into Plateau City.

Remember a year ago when we hit +11.5% YoY and thought we’ve never had it so good?

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes

Observation Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
Jan ’20
264.04
+0.2%
+5.1%
Feb
265.34
+0.5%
+4.6%
Mar
269.63
+1.6%
+5.2%
Apr
272.48
+1.1%
+5.8%
May
273.51
+0.4%
+5.2%
Jun
274.91
+0.5%
+5.0%
Jul
278.00
+1.1%
+5.4%
Aug
283.06
+1.8%
+7.6%
Sep
288.11
+1.8%
+9.4%
Oct
292.85
+1.6%
+11.5%
Nov
295.64
+1.0%
+12.3%
Dec
297.52
+0.6%
+13.0%
Jan ’21
301.72
+1.4%
+14.3%
Feb
310.62
+2.9%
+17.1%
Mar
320.81
+3.3%
+19.1%
Apr
331.47
+3.3%
+21.6%
May
341.05
+2.9%
+24.7%
Jun
349.78
+2.6%
+27.2%
Jul
355.33
+1.6%
+27.8%
Aug
357.11
+0.5%
+26.2%
Sep
359.88
+0.8%
+24.9%
Oct
363.80
+1.1%
+24.2%

“In October 2021, U.S. home prices moved substantially higher, but at a decelerating rate,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index rose 19.1% from year-ago levels, and the 10- and 20-City Composites gained 17.1% and 18.4%, respectively. In all three cases, October’s gains were below September’s, and September’s gains were below August’s. That said, October’s 19.1% gain in the National Composite is the fourth-highest reading in the 34 years covered by our data. (The top three were the three months immediately preceding October.)

“We continue to see very strong growth at the city level. All 20 cities saw price increases in the year ended October 2021. October’s increase ranked in the top quintile of historical experience for 19 cities, and in the top decile for 17 of them. As was the case last month, however, in 14 of 20 cities, prices decelerated – i.e., increased by less in October than they had done in September.

“Phoenix’s 32.3% increase led all cities for the 29th consecutive month. Tampa (+28.1%) and Miami (+25.7%) continued in second and third place in October, narrowly edging out Las Vegas, Dallas, and San Diego. Prices were strongest in the South and Southeast (both +24.4%), but every region continued to log double-digit gains.

“We have previously suggested that the strength in the U.S. housing market is being driven in part by a change in locational preferences as households react to the COVID pandemic. More data will be required to understand whether this demand surge represents an acceleration of purchases that would have occurred over the next several years, or reflects a more permanent secular change.”

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