Cabin With Moveable Walls
Saturday Report
There’s nothing wrong with a normal market – just because it’s not as insane everywhere as it was six months ago doesn’t mean it’s not a steady strong regular market that benefits everyone:
NSDCC Sales by Price, First Half of the Year
The higher-end sales between Carlsbad and La Jolla were fairly consistent through 2020 – then they exploded this year, with the $2,000,000+ sales totaling more than double the counts of previous years!
ADU Approval Process Is Deplorable
Last month, we heard from an architect on how bad the ADU permit process had been in San Diego.
Now here’s a report from our good friends at the PLF:
https://pacificlegal.org/still-no-place-to-live/
An excerpt:
Pacific Legal Foundation obtained public records from San Diego and Riverside Counties (two of the most populous counties in the state) to determine whether local governments are abiding by the new 60-day permit-approval period, which took effect in January 2020.
Unfortunately for California residents, local governments are failing miserably to abide by the new state law.
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- San Diego County took a median of 187 days to issue an ADU or Junior ADU building permit after January 2020. Permits issued prior to the new law took a median of 112 days to be issued. Only 52% of permits issued prior to the new law fell within the previously required 120-day mark.
Currently, only 5% of permits issued by the county met the state’s 60-day deadline. Many times, the permitting process is held up by excessive fees or approvals needed from other departments within the county. As of July 21, 2021, there are 587 pending applications, of which 90 were submitted prior to 2020. If these permits were issued today, the median wait time would be 255 days after the application was submitted.
The government, and society in general, needs to recognize how dire the housing crisis is for the citizens. We’re going to have continued upward pressure on home prices and rents, and building ADUs is one of the best ways to alleviate the problem. It doesn’t matter if the resistance by local governments is conscious or sub-conscious, the ADU-approval process needs to improve radically to implement the will of the people, and slow down prices.
Way Over List
San Francisco leads the 50 largest U.S. metros in the share of homes sold for 30% over their list price or higher at 7.4%. It’s followed by the hot market of Buffalo, NY, where 6.2% of homes sold for more than 30% over list, and Austin (5.3%). All shares in these markets are up substantially over the first quarter.
The markets with the most homes sold for half a million or more over asking in the second quarter are San Francisco (657), San Jose (283), Los Angeles (99), Seattle (88) and Miami (74).
https://www.zillow.com/research/share-of-homes-sold-way-over-list-doubles-29974/
Can we find the six that sold for $1,000,000 over list? I went looking for that needle in a haystack, but couldn’t find any. If you know of the properties that for more than a million dollars over list this year, let us know! The 2021 numbers are staggering, given the pricing:
San Diego County First-Half Sales, All Property Types
| Year | ||||
| 2017 | ||||
| 2018 | ||||
| 2019 | ||||
| 2020 | ||||
| 2021 |
Record pricing, and record sales at the same time – what a frenzy!
Rural Yet Close
Check out our new listing of this 2018 multi-gen beauty in Bonsall yet only 15 minutes from the coast!
Perfect for multi-gen, this upgraded gem features the primary bedroom suite downstairs with light-and-bright bath and large walk-in closet, plus three bedrooms with their own bonus TV room upstairs! High ceilings, downstairs den, ample storage and low-maintenance yard. The home backs up to dedicated open space with generous views of the natural preserve! Walk to highly-regarded Bonsall Elementary School just a few minutes away. Wow!
LP = $1,069,000 – PENDING!
https://www.compass.com/listing/31534-calle-de-las-rosas-bonsall-ca-92003/852373146571679593/
Doobie Brothers 2021
I had a dream. After a brutal 18 months of no concerts, all of the oldtimers hit the road again. Their intent was to re-focus the messages of the 1960s and 1970s, and try to bring us all together again.
The Doobie Brothers will be here on October 8th!
P.S. I had that belt buckle in high school!
Culver-Myers-Capp House
Here is my video tour of the oldest home in Carlsbad. The owners prefer if the buyer preserves the house, and it is only right – it is the only thing like it in town.
Hopefully the large 1.27-acre lot will enable the new owners to develop the remaining land to fulfill their investment, or just create the ultimate family compound!
Special thanks to Compass listing agent Gina Vreeberg for allowing me to publish this video tour of the oldest house in Carlsbad! @ginavreesellsre
https://www.compass.com/listing/3140-highland-drive-carlsbad-ca-92008/748996408467865465/
Prop 19 Setting Seniors Free
Prop 19 was sold by the California Association of Realtors as a solution to the low-inventory environment. The intent was to free up seniors over 55 to move anywhere within the state of California, and take their old property-tax basis with them.
The C.A.R. said it was all we needed to create more inventory!
While we don’t have any direct results yet, but with inventory about 10% behind last year’s covid-impacted count, and 21% behind the 2019 count of total listings between Jan 1 and July 30th, it’s safe to say that Prop 19 hasn’t had achieved its goal yet.
Or maybe I just need to do more!
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Do seniors just need more information on transferring their current property-tax basis?
If so, here’s your taxpayer advocate:
As Rob Dawg duly noted, seniors may need to stay in California so they can take their low property-tax basis with them to make it worth moving.
Where can you move within California? Here are some ideas:
Julian is close by, and you can get this 2,808sf one-story for $825,000:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5009-Pine-Ridge-Ave-Julian-CA-92036/16757715_zpid/
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How about Idyllwild? It’s only a two-hour drive and you can buy a 2,713sf single-story for $579,000:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/53680-Toll-Gate-Rd-Idyllwild-CA-92549/18047261_zpid/
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How about Placerville? The elevation is only 1,867 ft. and population is around 12,000.
You can buy this 2,094sf single level for $650,000:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1635-Pheasant-Run-Dr-Placerville-CA-95667/18591209_zpid/
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Ok, ok, you want to stay coastal. How about Cambria? Pick up this 1,875sf one-story for $875,000:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3144-Wood-Dr-Cambria-CA-93428/15410632_zpid/
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We hope to build a referral network with agents in every town, and in the meantime, Donna is excellent at vetting realtors for you. Let us know where you want to move, and we’ll set you up with a top agent!
Frenzy Connected to Inventory
It’s one thing to note that showings are well under the peak frenzy era of August-November. But today’s showings are also well below what they were in July 2019, which was a fairly flat market then.
Is the demand falling apart?
Or is it due to lower inventory?
Let’s compare the inventory counts for middle of August.
NSDCC Number of Homes For Sale
| Price Range | |||
| $0-$1.0M | |||
| $1.0M-$1.5M | |||
| $1.5M-$2.0M | |||
| $2.0M-$3.0M | |||
| $3.0M+ | |||
| Totals |
*In 2019 the highest category was Over-$2,000,000 – the categories were split the next year.
The total counts are distinctly different.
In 2019, the market was sluggish, and the local Case-Shiller went flat for the last six months. There were too many homes for sale.
Last year, the increased demand was met with a much tighter supply than in 2019, but looking back we can say it was the optimal amount of homes for sale in order to create the red-hot frenzy!
Now, there aren’t enough homes for sale to keep the momentum going, and the frenzy is being starved out.
Jim Klinge
Klinge Realty Group
Broker-Associate, Compass
Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home?
Contact Jim the Realtor!
- 682 S. Coast Hwy 101, Suite #110
Encinitas, CA 92024 - (858) 997-3801 call or text
- klingerealty@gmail.com
CA DRE #01527365, CA DRE #00873197
