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The experts at realtor.com think our pricing will go up 5.5% next year, and the folks at Zillow have predicted around 8% for areas between La Jolla and Carlsbad. I think we’ll be hitting +6% to +8% by summertime, so let’s put that aside and look at the number of sales predicted here – because it all starts with inventory.

Here are the annual NSDCC sales from the last big frenzy year, 2013, plus last year and the projected numbers for 2020 (I added the December, 2019 count to the first 11 months of 2020) – to which I multiplied by the 11.3% forecast by realtor.com to get the 2021 listings and sales:

Year
Total # of Listings
Total # of Sales
Median SP
# of Sales Under $1M (% of total)
2013
4,929
3,083
$949,000
1,692 (55%)
2019
4,773
2,838
$1,327,250
670 (24%)
2020
4,517
3,128
$1,463,500
563 (18%)
2021 (f)
4,829
3,481
$1,543,993
??

For sales to increase next year, we need more lower-priced homes to sell – there aren’t enough buyers to pick through the hundreds of homes who are asking $2,000,000+ (there are 361 for sale today).

What are the lower-priced homes? The older, smaller homes owned by boomers for decades.

For 2021 to reach the peak frenzy of all-time, we will need the boomer liquidation to commence – or the biggest move-up event in history, which is unlikely because contingent sales get no traction with listing agents. Move-uppers have to buy the dogs to get a contingent deal to stick – and they aren’t moving unless they can really upgrade into a much nicer home.

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