This article is written by a professor at the Wharton School who has a book coming out this week. It appears we have a glut of boomers – will we stay put, or sell the family homestead (once the covid is solved) and explore the world during retirement?
Population aging is a powerful force. By 2030 the population above age 60 will have grown so much that other generations like millennials and Gen-Z will be outnumbered by them in Europe, China, Japan and the United States.
Each day, 12,000 Americans celebrate their 60th birthday; in China, 54,000; and in the world, about 210,000, according to the United Nations Population Division. The pandemic will only accelerate this trend given the predictable decline in fertility — which tends to occur whenever unemployment is high — and the shifting demographics of cases and deaths, which are trending younger as time goes by.
The 60+ crowd will become very important economically for three reasons.
First, they own more than half of the net worth around the world, a proportion that reaches 80 percent in the United States, according to a study by the Federal Reserve. Second, the same study concluded that the net worth of seniors is more evenly distributed than among younger age groups, and poverty rates are also lower. And third, their incomes tend to be more resilient because many of them depend on pensions or investment income, and they can do some work on the side to cover potential shortfalls.
Not all seniors are financially secure, but they tend to be less exposed to large-scale financial disruption during episodes of crisis. Moreover, there are 25 percent more women above the age of 60 than men, they tend to be much better at managing their money and making it last, and they account for a smaller percentage of COVID-related health problems and hospitalizations, mainly because they heed the advice of health authorities and they have more robust anti-viral immune responses to begin with.
The gray market is quickly becoming in vogue because ever larger proportions of seniors are enjoying life by using their income and wealth wisely to procure goods and services that enhance their experiences.
Moreover, a 70-year-old nowadays lives the life of a 50-year-old in the 1980s.
The pandemic has also accelerated the technological savviness of this group, and not just in the area of e-commerce. In fact, a study in the Journal of Gerontology found that use of the Internet increases cognitive functioning rather than vice versa. Myriad new applications in virtual reality, robotics, and artificial intelligence are seeking to capture a rapidly growing market.
Other areas of technology will help seniors live longer and more fulfilling lives. Virtual reality can stimulate motor functions and the overall performance of the nervous system, and it can help reduce loneliness, a key problem afflicting large numbers of people at advanced ages. Artificial intelligence and robotics will also contribute to quality of life. Over the last decade, Japanese companies have invested heavily in robotics to aid with daily tasks like lifting weights, conduct physiotherapy sessions, and provide for companionship.
The number of new listings this week reflected some slowdown which is typical this time of year as school gets rolling. We had 71 new listings between Carlsbad and La Jolla……but we had 82 new pendings!
The lower-end of the market is drying up like a peach seed too. Here’s are the number of listings in each price range for this week of the year:
It’s the one in Carlsbad where water damage caused the owners to vacate while remediation took place, and then rather reconstructing most of the house, we just sold it as-is.
I sold the house to the owners for $179,000 in December, 1996 when they retired here from Redondo Beach, and we’ve stayed in touch ever since. We knew the day would come when they wouldn’t want to live there on their own, but it’s always easier to delay the sorting of the family stuff until then.
The day has come….without notice.
As seniors age, they typically lose some of their physical and mental capacities, and going through their stuff becomes onerous. Just like with moving, don’t wait too long to sort through your family memories.
Thankfully in this case, Olga is still on top of her game and is whipping through the stuff quickly – she said it’s like having her life flash before her eyes!
Start sorting and moving today while you can still enjoy it!
We know that covid, and it’s impact on schooling in particular, is causing some people to want more space around them. Bigger houses, with bigger yards, are becoming more desirable…..and buyers are scrambling to get situated and comfortable before school starts – or at least not get too far into the school year.
The Poway area offers such relief at a fairly affordable price.
My buyers and I finalized this list of homes on Monday, and picked yesterday as our tour date. By Wednesday night, this is how the list looked:
17307 St Andrews Dr., Poway. $1,399,000 Active listing
14260 Hacienda Ln., Poway. $1,150,000 Active listing
16105 Lakeview Rd. Poway. $1,350,000 Active listing
12612 Stoutwood St., Poway. $1,070,000 Pending
13615 Sunset View Rd., Poway. $1,100,000 Pending
11828 Clearwood Ct., San Diego. $1,290,000 Pending
12429 Damasco St., San Diego. $920,000 Pending
14473 Trailwind, Poway $1,465,000 Pending
14220 Primrose Ct., Poway $1,249,000 Pending
3428 Tony Dr., San Diego $1,329,000 Pending
12020 Blue Diamond Ct., San Diego $1,300,000 Pending
9972 Falcon Bluff, San Diego $1,389,000 Pending
14048 Old Station, Poway $999,000 Pending
12488 Caleta Way, San Diego $1,098,000 Pending
13427 Calle Colina, Poway $1,250,000 Active listing
Out of the 15 listings, eleven of them already went pending this week!
An occasional commission might fall in your lap, but for the most part, you are going to have to earn every penny you make in real estate sales. Let’s note what the job is, and how to get good at it.
Your job is to advise people about buying and selling real estate.
To advise people properly, you want to know more about the subject than they do. Preview homes every day, and learn something about them. Remember the important details of each home that affect the value and be able to recite them later as part of your advice.
Be a master of the MLS – it is our tool that assists us in doing our job. Know how to use it and other internet tools to help you be more efficient.
The contract is the bible – know it well. Your clients don’t read it, so know what they are getting into.
Work on your craft – particularly on your sales skills.
There are plenty of educational courses, seminars, and different levels of coaching available. But none of it compares to what you learn on the street. You learn the most by doing!
Ideally you want to work with someone who is mentoring you in action. Every big franchise company has some sort of introductory crash course on sales, and then a weekly training class – but after that, it’s a long road to learn the trade. If you can hire on with a realtor who is active in the business and can show you the ropes, it will expedite your learning process!
Alvin asked if the death of Robin Williams on the property is affecting the sale-ability of his home in Marin County. It’s been listed for sale for more than a year at $7,250,000, so they’ve lowered it to $5,995,000.
Though some cultures believe it’s bad juju to buy a house in which a death has occurred, I think the condition of the home is the reason. The kitchen needs to be fully renovated, and while you’re at it, the doorway outside probably needs to be closed off to create a larger, more modern kitchen.
The tile flooring goes through most of the house too:
The exposure to the elements might be a concern – it’s wide open:
The house also looks due east, and I don’t think you can see San Francisco from the property (no SF photos).
Photos and maps tend to be revealing, and it’s where home buyers are making decisions. Here is the Zillow link to this property for more photos – what do you think?
We hear the term, ‘tight inventory’. What does it mean?
Fewer homes for sale?
Fewer of the lower-priced homes for sale?
Homes selling faster?
The best buys are flying off the market in the first day or two?
NSDCC detached-home statistics for Jan 1st – Aug 15th:
Year
# of Listings
Median LP
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg DOM
Median DOM
2016
3,727
$1,399,000
1,912
$1,150,000
43
22
2017
3,349
$1,425,000
1,994
$1,229,500
45
19
2018
3,390
$1,497,500
1,819
$1,320,000
40
18
2019
3,411
$1,550,000
1,789
$1,300,000
43
22
2020
2,991
$1,659,000
1,643
$1,400,000
41
18
20vs19
-12%
+7%
-8%
+8%
-5%
-18%
The average and median Days-On-Market metrics are within the normal range, so generally-speaking, homes aren’t selling faster than before.
We’ve had fewer homes for sale (-12% YoY), but sales are only down 8% which isn’t bad. The drop in sales between 2017 and 2018 was slightly more at 9% so we’ve endured this previously.
The overall volume is only down 0.4% YoY ($3,000,850,233 vs $2,988,471,818) – so those on commission (realtors, lenders, escrow, and title) shouldn’t be too concerned with ‘tight inventory’.
Who should be concerned?
Buyers on the lower-end of every market.
We have eleven NSDCC houses for sale priced under $900,000 (in an area of 300,000 people):
Two of those aren’t on the market yet (coming soon!), and a third has a contingent buyer.
Tight inventory = buyers are getting squeezed up on price.
The Showtime documentary on the Go-Gos is really good, especially if you spent any time in Los Angeles in the early 80s. They went from just another punk band to international superstars overnight.
Formed in Los Angeles in 1978, the Go-Go’s initially consisted of Belinda Carlisle (vocals), Jane Wiedlin (guitar, background vocals), Margot Olavarria (bass), and Elissa Bello (drums).
They were formed as a punk band and had roots in the L.A. punk community. They shared a rehearsal space with the Motels and Carlisle, under the name “Dottie Danger”, had briefly been a member of punk rock band the Germs. After she became temporarily ill, she left the Germs before playing a gig.
The band began playing gigs at punk venues such as The Masque and the Whisky a Go Go in Los Angeles and the Mabuhay Gardens in San Francisco alongside bands such as X, Fear, the Plugz and the Controllers.Charlotte Caffey (lead guitar, keyboards, background vocals) was added later in 1978, and in the summer of 1979, Gina Schockreplaced Bello on drums. With these lineup changes, the group began moving towards their more-familiar power pop sound.
The group frequently met at a Denny’s on Sunset Boulevard in Hollywood, and it was there that they chose the band’s name.
During late 1979, the band recorded a five-song demo at Gold Star Studios in Los Angeles, and in 1980, they supported the British ska revival groups Madness and The Specials in both Los Angeles and England. The Go-Go’s subsequently spent half of 1980 touring England, earning a sizable following and releasing the demo version of “We Got the Beat” on Stiff Records, which became a minor UK hit.
In December 1980, original bassist Olavarria fell ill with hepatitis A and was replaced with Kathy Valentine, who had played guitar in bands such as Girlschool and the Textones. Valentine had not previously played bass guitar. Carlisle also related in her autobiography, Lips Unsealed, that according to the band’s view, another reason for Olavarria’s dismissal from the Go-Go’s was that she frequently missed rehearsals, due largely to her dissatisfaction with the band’s move away from punk and toward pop. In late 1982, Olavarria sued the remaining members of the band for wrongful removal. The suit was settled in 1984. Olavarria later joined Martin Atkins’ band Brian Brain.
The Go-Go’s signed to I.R.S. Records in April 1981. The following year, they toured with The Police on the Ghost in the Machine Tour. Their debut album, Beauty and the Beat, was a surprise hit: it topped the U.S. charts for six weeks in 1982 and eventually received a double platinum certification. The album was also a success outside the U.S. charting at No. 2 in Canada, where it received a platinum certification, and No. 27 in Australia. In 2003, the album was ranked No. 413 on Rolling Stone magazine’s list of the 500 greatest albums of all time. “Our Lips Are Sealed” and a new version of “We Got the Beat” were popular singles in North America in early 1982. During this period, the Go-Go’s started building a fanbase.
In 1982, the group was nominated for a Grammy Award for Best New Artist.
