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After Merry Christmas!

I few days ago caught that cold that’s been going around, and revived myself just in time to prepare for 40 people at our house for Christmas – including six octogenarians and six kids under the age of five!

My Uncle Bob and his daughter/my cousin Jenny did attend, so for the first time I brought some of the memorabilia – four boxes of stuff that’s been stored in my garage for years.  We agreed that we should digitize everything!

Our grandfather, Al Klinge:

Not today though – it’s back to work!

Holiday Dinner Topics

There are two real estate-related measures expected to be on the November, 2020 ballot.

The most contentious will be the attempt to modify Proposition 13 – one version has already qualified to be on the ballot, and organizers hope to get enough signatures to qualify a revised version.

Here are the differences:

Link to Comparision on Ballotpedia

The Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association has something to say about it here:

Link to hjta.com article

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The other initiative is the one that failed in 2018 because the tepid support from the California Association of Realtors was intended to test the waters, and then get it passed in 2020.  It would enable seniors to buy their next home in any county, at any price, and bring their old property-tax basis with them.

I’m not convinced there will be the surge in sales that the C.A.R. predicts, but for the group of seniors who are 55+ that want to move up in value, this could be worth waiting for if you have a small property-tax basis currently.

Here is a summary of the initiative:

https://ballotpedia.org/California_Property_Tax_Transfers_and_Exemptions_Initiative_(2020)

The C.A.R. wants realtors to go out and spread the word too:

Dear Jim,

As you may know, the state’s housing crisis continues to be the top issue California voters care about heading into next year’s election.

The CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® is leading efforts to address California’s housing crisis at the local and statewide level, including qualifying our ballot measure for the 2020 November General Election. The initiative would remove the property tax “hit” senior homeowners can experience when moving to another home so that they can relocate anywhere in California, such as new housing and retirement communities or to be closer to family. It also protects the right of parents and grandparents to transfer their family home to their children — a right that’s been under threat or revocation in the Legislature.

These changes are an important part of the solution on housing — opening up existing inventory for purchase and making more efficient use of existing housing stock, while generating needed revenue for local schools and local government.  At the same time, the measure will generate 67,000 to 90,000 new transactions on an annual basis, and more over time, as Baby Boomers transition out of their existing homes.

We’ve already launched a statewide signature gathering effort to qualify the measure for the November 2020 ballot. I’m pleased to share the news that signature gathering is off to a fast and robust start, with hundreds of thousands of voters throughout the state signing petitions to place this important measure on the ballot.

In December, we also launched a member program with the goal of collecting 50,000 valid signatures by February 20, 2020, and engaging REALTOR® members in the signature gathering process, which will build political engagement among the membership in preparation for the November 2020 General Election.

Research shows that the measure enjoys broad support — and the more that voters learn about the measure, support levels increase exponentially.

That’s why our local members play such an important role in a winning campaign. You are the best ambassadors to spread the word about the initiative and why it’s so important to place the measure on the 2020 ballot so that voters have the opportunity to be part of the housing solution in California.

I hope you will get actively involved in the campaign during our signature gathering phase.

In the meantime, I wish you and yours a very safe and joyous holiday season, and I hope you have a terrific 2020!

Sincerely,

Jeanne Radsick
C.A.R. President

It would seem to make more sense that the long-time homeowners would be downsizing, and the number who wanted to buy up would be somewhat limited as a result. But it would be a significant benefit to that group, and be worth waiting to move to see if this initiative passes in November.  If it does, the effective date will be January 1, 2021.

Here is the text:

Link to Full Text of Initiative

Merry Christmas!

Inventory Watch

We still have eight days remaining in 2019, but it doesn’t look like we will match last year’s total number of listings.  The relatively-light competition causes optimistic sellers, and it won’t be different in 2020:

Year
Total Number of Listings
Median List Price
MLP % Chg YoY
% Listings Over $2M
2014
4,695
$1,247,847
23%
2015
5,085
$1,295,000
+3.8%
25%
2016
5,186
$1,395,000
+7.7%
28%
2017
4,656
$1,450,000
+3.8%
31%
2018
4,856
$1,499,000
+3.4%
32%
2019
4,720
$1,588,700
+6.0%
33%

It is somewhat surprising that there were’t more listings over $2,000,000!

(more…)

Buyers Starting Earlier

The home-buying season used to kick off sometime in spring, as the snow began to melt and people tried to plan for a summer move-in. But in recent years, the limited supply of homes for sale has spurred buyers to start their hunt earlier and earlier—and now, they’re jumping into the market en masse in January, according to a recent realtor.com analysis. Happy New Year, now start house hunting!

In about 20% of the nation’s largest housing markets, January was the month in which buyers logged the most listing views, the realtor.com team found. The analysis looked at the number of monthly views on realtor.com from 2015 to 2019—and discovered the extent of spring market creep, as buyers try to get ahead of the competition for the few homes on the market.

“As shoppers … [navigate] a housing market that has become more competitive due to rising prices and low inventory, the search for a home is beginning earlier and earlier,” says realtor.com’s Senior Economist George Ratiu. And as more homes aren’t expected to go onto the market anytime soon, ”we expect to see this trend continue into the new year.”

Link to Article

Carlsbad Village Condos

“It used to be the Village by the Sea. But it’s not a village anymore when you can build buildings that are four stories tall…really five when you count the top deck.”

DeeDee Trejo was born and raised in Carlsbad. She operates Lola’s Seven-Up Market on Roosevelt Street. It was founded by her family in Carlsbad’s first neighborhood, the so-called Barrio, a historic residential area between I-5 and the Carlsbad Boulevard/101 just south of Carlsbad Village Drive. Lola’s opened in 1943, nine years before Carlsbad became a city.

Trejo’s family lives near the market. “I can’t even have a BBQ at my house and have people over because they can’t find a spot to park.”

The Carlsbad city council last week made some changes to its Village and Barrio Master Plan approved last year. But unchanged is the fact that four-story buildings (45 feet maximum) can still be built in the downtown Village business district. Village parking regularly overflows into the adjacent Barrio district.

Consider the under-construction State Mixed Use 30 development, a four-story mixed-use project on the corner of State and Oak streets. It sits on the border of the Village and Barrio districts. The first floor is designated commercial while the second, third and fourth floors will be 27 condos (14 for sale, 13 time shares). The project is being built with 33 on-site spaces dedicated to the residents. Any overflow residential parking and all the commercial parking will have to find parking space in the already overwhelmed streets of the Village and Barrio districts.

How was this development allowed to happen? Carlsbad senior planner Scott Donnell says the city planning commission signed off on it after the developer agreed to pay for 20 “in lieu parking fees.” This means that instead of providing adequate parking as mandated by law, the city allowed the developer to pay approximately $11,000 for each space into a city fund. That pot of cash is to be used by the city to acquire property for parking and/or build a parking structure.

Donnell says at present he is not aware of any plans for Carlsbad to buy property or build a parking structure.

Link to Reader article

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