Rich’s latest data is up at www.piggington.com.
He mentioned the slightly-negative turn in pricing last month, but I like these two graphs above. The pricing trend is going to bounce around – as long as we have sales counts close to previous years, we’ll be fine.
Are you looking for proof that there are buyers being very patient, and are waiting in the wings until they see the perfect fit?
Consider this one, which I heard reports of receiving 18, 19 or 20 offers. It was listed for $888,000, and closed for $1,000,000, or 13% over list price:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1090-Balour-Dr-Encinitas-CA-92024/16720408_zpid/
It had the popular hot tickets – full remodel with the white/gray modern look, natural light via skylights, one-story, and garage granny flat (permits unknown).
Hey, we had our first monthly increase since June!
Last year the index readings topped out in July, and if that pattern repeats, it will mean that today’s home prices will be the highest of the year.
San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:
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| January ’19 | |||
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Over the last week, we’ve seen soundbites on how home prices declined in Southern California and San Francisco for the first time in seven years, but they are talking about the median sales price – which declined a measly 0.1%. Expect the talking heads to focus on up or down only.
We’re going to be lucky to keep pace with last year’s monthly increases:
Last year the February month-over-month increase was 1.1%, and this year it was only 0.1%. But because the focus is so binary (up or down only), we might escape further scrutiny as long as we can hit a +0.1% each month.
But it’s pretty likely that our local year-over-year readings are going to go negative next month – right as the selling season wraps up. Winter might start early this year!
Most home improvements look worse than they are.
Here’s how easy a pool resurfacing can be – and the contractor cleans up daily:
With less than 24 hours to go in the REO auction, it looks like the seller got a little antsy and decided to push the bidding closer to their $1,499,900 list price. Will there be a flurry of activity right at the finish line? We’ll see!
If you’d like to contribute to the Chabad of Poway in hopes of finding solutions to the senseless violence that plagues our society, click here:
Link to Donation PageWhat’s the answer?
Let’s start by interviewing the murderers in jail and have them reflect on how stupid it was to throw their life away, and then share that with the kids.
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This is a real estate blog, and I’m going to plow ahead. Let’s keep living!
Here’s a fascinating example of the current market conditions between La Jolla and Carlsbad, and it shows that it’s not just about price.
Today there are 62% more homes for sale priced under $1,000,000 than there were last year – you can buy a cheaper home! But buyers want quality – look at how the average list-price-per-sf of the pendings relates to the actives:
NSDCC Actives vs. Pendings
| Price | ||||
| 0-$1.0M | ||||
| $1M–$1.5M | ||||
| $1.5M–$2M | ||||
| $2.0M+ |
This is why pricing will likely plateau – people are willing to pay these prices if they can just get a suitable home. They are making their decisions based on location, condition, and schools, and are willing to pass on inferior homes even though they could save some money.
Buyers are decisive too, and are willing to act when they see the right fit. Look at how the average days-on-market compares:
NSDCC Actives vs. Pendings
| Price | ||||
| 0-$1.0M | ||||
| $1M–$1.5M | ||||
| $1.5M–$2M | ||||
| $2.0M+ |
The higher-end buyers are being very deliberate, but the rest are acting!
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This is the 8,251sf home in Rancho Santa Fe that sold new for $10,600,000 in February, 2017, then resold a year later for $10,850,000 in October, 2017:
This guy is killing me.
I’ve spent the last thirteen years trying to build an audience here by presenting as much evidence as I can find to interest home buyers and sellers, and I am very appreciative of you joining me!
My videos get 100-200 views, and I have 1,065 YouTube subscribers!
This realtor starts a YouTube account three weeks ago, and does five videos on Housing Bubble 2.0.
He has 5,721 subscribers, and 9,976 views of this video with 408 thumbs up and 154 comments! People must be attracted to doom?
You tell me – would you rather see and hear this format style and data?
Trendy one-story homes with no HOA or Mello-Roos are a hot ticket:
Here’s an interesting case in 2019.
Wells Fargo foreclosed on this Carmel Valley home in November. It had been listed on the MLS for the previous 12 months, and it looked like the agent had been trying to process a short sale (it was marked ‘contingent’).
She had it listed for $1,500,000.
Her clients paid $1,650,000 in 2007, and financed $1,137,500 with World Savings. Times were tough for many, and these folks got their notice of default filed in August, 2010. It doesn’t look like they made any payments since.
Wells Fargo’s amount at the trustee’s sale was $1,365,016, which is typically the amount owed. So the former owners got a couple of hundred thousand dollars in relief, but waved bye-bye to their down payment of $512,500.
Wells Fargo then listed the house for sale in January for $1,499,000, and has now sent it to an online auction. The bidding started yesterday, and will remain open until Tuesday:
The interesting twist is that the house is occupied – probably by the former owners – and no one is allowed to see the house. They also have only one photo of the exterior.
I’ll help them out by providing a link to the previous listing with photos here:
Link to Previous ListingThe auction website also notes that it needs to be a cash purchase, though it’s not mentioned in the MLS listing. The buyer has to pay a 5% buyer’s premium on top of the purchase price, and I assume they want you to close escrow with the occupants inside?
What will somebody pay for the home, under those conditions?
The current bid is $1,199,920, though note sure if that is actually a real offer or just the minimum bid.
Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home?
Contact Jim the Realtor!
CA DRE #01527365, CA DRE #00873197
