We saw yesterday that we had 5% fewer January listings year-over-year, giving the impression that sellers aren’t rushing their homes to market.
But we came into 2019 with more leftover listings from last year – and they are already starting to pile up:
NSDCC Detached-Homes
| Year | ||
| 2016 | ||
| 2017 | ||
| 2018 | ||
| 2019 |
Last year we were overdue for some slowdown, but were able to survive lower January sales because the inventory heading into the selling season was so thin that urgency was higher among buyers, which kept the party going.
This year we had fewer sales even with higher inventory, which means the selling-success rate is dropping steadily. Once more unsold listings start stacking up, the urgency among buyers will diminish.
This is the same data as yesterday, but over three years instead of five, and shows how the 2018 selling season didn’t pop like in previous years:
Click to enlarge
Mortgage rates went over 4.5% in May which helped to discourage sales, but you can see how the initial surge barely got past March. Even if rates stay where they are today, we could have a muted sales season just because we are already loaded with listings.
Glad to see “sense of urgency “ being noticed as a factor that reinforces (amplifies) sales trends in both directions.
Don’t be too concerned. People renting SFRs in our areas are still motivated. If the evil landlords push more increases we might see a revival of first purchases.