“Picking Up”

We were due for a surge in market activity with rates coming down, and the Chargers and rain both being done.  Several agents are reporting increased activity over the last few days, and it seems like buyers are engaging.

We should see heightened activity for the next week, then a break for a few days around the Super Bowl as everyone grabs their guacamole, with the Spring Selling Season beginning in earnest on February 4th.

The weekend of February 9th and 10th should be huge!

It’s nice that we have somebody to talk to now, but what does it mean?  It means people are looking around – that’s it.  Those who find an incredibly-good fit might pounce, but most are going to wait-and-see how the season develops.

So far, we’re having about the same number of new NSDCC listings come to market as we did last year, so no panic among potential sellers.  Their main focus is only on how high they can push their price – it’s the buyers who are paying close attention to the real market activity, and what they see is determined by their mindset.

Here are some examples:

Bidding War!

We ended up with three offers on our Gladstone listing, and a bidding war!

Bidding wars don’t just happen; somebody has to spur them on, coordinate them effectively, and keep the focus on winning and losing, and not the price.

The home had its foibles too.

It only has two bedrooms, the third ‘bedroom’ is unpermitted, the kitchen and bathrooms were gussied up but mostly original, and it backs to the full assortment of power lines.  The worst part was not having any recent comps that painted a solid picture on value, leaving it up to the buyers to get comfortable – I helped, and thankfully they had good agents too.

We are listed for $499,000, and I nudged two offers north of $530,000!

If you are thinking of selling, hire me!

Encinitas Pre-Approved ADUs


The cities of Carlsbad and San Diego should do this too:

Encinitas is offering homeowners a money-saving solution for building granny flats on their properties, hoping that these units will help meet the city’s housing goals.

The City of Encinitas created the Permit-Ready ADU (PRADU) program that will offer property owners pre-approved building plans for granny flats.

The city said this will reduce pre-construction costs, create expedited building permits and waive all city development fees.

This comes after the San Diego Board of Supervisors voted to waive permit and development fees for granny flats countywide earlier this month.

Encinitas is working with two local architects to offer homeowners a variety of pre-approved building plans.

PRADU is estimated to save homeowners up to $18,000.  The city said it will have the pre-approved plans available at the Development Services Department’s front counter.

Read full article here:

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/Encinitas-to-Offer-Homeowners-a-504658272.html

Jim in Business Insider in 2014

This was published on April, 2, 2014. The SD Case-Shiller is 28% higher today than it was then, and the trading hasn’t thinned out much, at least not yet.  We had 2,850 NSDCC sales in 2014, and 2,801 last year:

Below is a Q&A with Jim Klinge, the head of San Diego-based Klinge Realty and the creator of BubbleInfo.com, a realty blog.

BUSINESS INSIDER: What is the most underreported story in housing? 

JIM KLINGE: The health of the real estate market. We’re back to peak pricing – and higher – around coastal San Diego during the toughest mortgage underwriting in the history of the world.

BI: What is the biggest change you’ve seen since the bust in terms of the typical buyers’ profile?

JK: No change – almost all are owner-occupants.  Surprisingly, having direct access to recent sales via the internet hasn’t made buyers more critical about price.  Over the last 12 months, it’s been the opposite – people are paying prices that are 5% to 10% higher than recent sales.  Because they are so familiar with the values, you’d think they would be more discerning, but the fear of loss supersedes all – they just want to buy a house, and are tired of losing.

BI: What is the biggest mistake buyers are making these days?

JK: Not researching realtors. They think we’re all the same, so they just grab one.

BI: What is the biggest mistake sellers are making these days?

JK: Not researching realtors.  Many just grab the one who mails them the most propaganda.

BI: How much higher can the Sun Belt markets climb?

JK: The prime markets could easily rise another 10% to 20%, price-wise, in the next 2-3 years.  But it will be on very thin trading, which makes you question how legit it is, and whether it will sustain.

Click here and scroll down for text:

https://e.businessinsider.com/public/2537853

Inventory Watch

We saw the local SD Case-Shiller broken down into pricing tiers for the whole county, marking what the buyers are paying for same-house sales.

To gauge the sellers’ expectations, here’s the trend for list prices of detached-homes between La Jolla and Carlsbad over the last 50 weeks:

Expectations are at their 50-week highs, and we’re just getting started!

Sellers aren’t going to adjust until there has been solid proof for months or years that their price is wrong. Would you?

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Are you coming off vacation and getting back in the swing? Click here to register your guess of how many total listings we will have between Jan 1 and Feb 28 – the closest will receive four tickets to a Padres game!

NSDCC New Listings Jan 1 to Jan 15:

2018: 214

2019: 208

There should be a few late-reporters that pull us up to about even with 2018!

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Shake and Bake

A week ago these sellers had no expectation of moving any time soon, and certainly hadn’t done anything to prepare for sale.  But we found the right house to buy, if we can only sell this one.

Let’s get on it!

Tuesday and Wednesday the ceilings were scraped, re-textured, and painted. Thursday and Friday the walls and kitchen were painted (two coats) and the bathrooms were tuned up. The painters stayed until 11pm last night, and came back early today to finsih it off.

Buyers started arriving at 11:45!

Here’s the play by play:

We already received one full-price offer, and others are interested. Richard will be there 12-3pm on Sunday!

https://www.zillow.com/homes/4479-Gladstone-Ct,-Carlsbad,-CA-92010_rb/

Redfin Estimates

Be careful with those Redfin estimates – they are tied to the list prices.

The snip above was taken on January 15th, and the one below was taken last night.  It’s hard to believe the actual value went up 12% in 48 hours:

Should they have the ability to revise their estimate once they get new information?  I suppose, but they should state that clearly for those who believe what they read on the internet.

But they flat-out lie to you – their estimate was $465,166 on Tuesday.

This is what they show today – 12 months of estimates over $500,000:

I won’t mind if the Redfin estimate helps me start a bidding war, but I’d rather operate in a pure, non-manipulated market.  Once buyers get burned enough, they shy away, which isn’t good for anyone.

Tamarack Point – SOLD

An affordable way to buy a quality one-story home in Carlsbad! Located at the end of the drive with tranquil views over the valley, this upgraded townhouse has the entire living area at the entry level (2brs&2ba), with only the loft being upstairs and nicely converted into third bedroom. New paint, newer dual-pane windows, central A/C, 2-car side-by-side garage, and one of the largest yards with plenty of privacy! Every comp in Tamarack Point over the last 12 months was higher priced – nice deal!

SP = $538,200. Jim represented the seller and got $39,200 over list price – even though it backed to the power lines!

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4479-Gladstone-Ct-Carlsbad-CA-92010/16650732_zpid/

Carlsbad Affordable

Here’s our first listing of 2019 that is undergoing a full tune-up in time for open house this weekend – we can move quick but not in a hurry! (John Wooden)

On Sunday we won a bidding war between contingent offers, and one of the stipulations was to get this home on the market by today!

LP = $499,000.

Open 12-3pm Saturday & Sunday!

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4479-Gladstone-Ct-Carlsbad-CA-92010/16650732_zpid/

An affordable way to buy a quality one-story home in Carlsbad! Located at the end of the drive with tranquil views over the valley, this upgraded townhouse has the entire living area at the entry level (2brs&2ba), with only the loft being upstairs and nicely converted into third bedroom. New paint, newer dual-pane windows, central A/C, 2-car side-by-side garage, and one of the largest yards with plenty of privacy! Every comp in Tamarack Point over the last 12 months was higher priced – nice deal!

San Diego Tiered Pricing Graph

No surprise the trend shows the higher the price, the softer the price increases.

The lower-end market keeps humming along, while the higher-end market isn’t – and the connection between the two is getting fuzzier by the day.

With the struggle of moving up or down being very real, we could see more disconnect between markets.

Let’s keep this in mind when analyzing trends – it’s more complex than ever.

https://journal.firsttuesday.us/san-diego-housing-indicators-2/29246/

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