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Estate Sales Online

This idea is ingenious!

Maxsold has a team of staff people in San Diego County to come to your house, photograph all your stuff, and then sell it online for you!

Check out this video:

Get started here:

https://infl.tv/eLwm

La Costa Fixer w/Granny Flat

For those who want to build out a project your way, have I got a deal for you!

The architect drew up plans for a 3br/3.5ba house plus a 1br/1ba granny flat, and they just needs the finishing touches. Last sale nearby was 7503 Solano St for $975,000 in June.

Will not qualify for conventional financing – no kitchen or baths currently:

Youtube walking tour here:

The address is 7516 Brava St., Carlsbad, listed for $699,000.

Call or text Jim today! (858) 997-3801

Hometainers

I love this idea – but $140,000 each? Hat tip Eddie89!

The region’s first housing project made from shipping containers could open as soon as April, providing homes for 21 formerly homeless veterans and possibly paving the way for hundreds of new affordable and median-priced homes in the near future.

The units are planned for a vacant lot at 2941 Imperial Ave. in Logan Heights.  Each 320-square-foot unit would have its own patio, kitchen and bathroom. While the units will be built from metal shipping containers, they will be insulated and have interior drywalls.

(more…)

iBuyer Flipping in SD

There hasn’t been much concern around San Diego about the ibuyers because they have been cutting their teeth in the lower-priced and more homogenized housing markets, where valuations are easier.

Hat tip to the reader who sent this in though – Offerpad did purchase a Talmadge home in December.  They took title as Offerpad, and they used their regular Gilbert, AZ address too:

Link to Zillow listing

They paid $564,000, and tried all year to do better:

But the market didn’t come their way, and they ended up selling for less:

Even if they get a discounted commission (two different agents were involved, and the buyer’s agent got 2.5%), losing money on flips has to get old quickly!

A softer market should cause more of these guys to ‘self-sideline’.

Pocket Listings / Coming Soon

More tip-toeing around the Coming Soon topic in Realtor Magazine yesterday:

The surge in off-market “pocket listings”—those held off the MLS in favor of secret channels and networks between agents or within a brokerage—is a growing issue in the real estate industry.

In markets starved for inventory, real estate professionals are struggling with being kept out of these secret dealings for homes that their buyers could potentially want.

In markets such as Los Angeles, for example, reports say that up to 30 percent of sales are being withheld from the MLS for the sake of more private channels, according to some brokerage estimates.

In response, some brokerages—and even MLSs—are looking for ways to expose these listings to a larger audience. One of many recent launches in the past month came from the brokerage Compass, which allows its real estate agents to post their listings to Compass’ website days before sharing them with the local MLS and third-party portals, like realtor.com®. “Compass Coming Soon” is available nationwide in markets where the brokerage operates.

“This will help our agents get a head start on marketing while still getting the property ready for market,” Compass CEO Robert Reffkin reportedly shared with Compass real estate professionals in an email. “By harnessing the power of pre-marketing, [the listing] actually shows up twice in everyone’s alerts: once when it hits Compass.com, and again when it hits the open market, doubling potential exposure.”

Pacific Union International, which Compass acquired in late August, had launched its own solution to handling the disruption from the growing prevalence of pocket listings in May with “Private View,” debuting $400 million worth of exclusive property offerings. But its portal of off-MLS listings can be viewed by any registered users—real estate professionals from other brokerages as well as the general public. Registered users can see exclusively signed listings before they’re publicized on the MLS. The portal is currently available in northern and southern California.

In September, Long & Foster launched its own exclusive Coming Soon Portal to promote upcoming listings to its agents before they are on the market. It’s a way to gauge interest and create early demand for a property before it hits the MLS.

“Our agent-to-agent portal allows our sales associates exclusive access to Long & Foster properties that are not yet in the MLS,” Barry Redler, chief marketing officer for The Long & Foster Companies, said in a statement announcing the portal. “Having this platform not only allows us to respond to certain seller requests but also gives our agents a leg up on the competition by helping their buyers more easily find a home in a tight inventory market.”

MLSs are searching for the answer to expose these homes listed for sale, which the seller may wish to keep secret. The Chicago area MLS, Midwest Real Estate Data, launched the Private Listing Network in 2016 as a separate feed to share information to registered brokers about “coming soon” listings. These are not displayed publicly. MRED officials cite it as a way for real estate professionals in their area to premarket listings that aren’t ready to show yet or that are in the process of being renovated, repaired, or staged prior to being marketed publicly. It’s also a way to test the price, as a range can be entered.

But some brokerages and MLSs are taking a firm stance against the practice of pocket listings or “coming soon” forms of premarketing. Since 2013, Northwest Multiple Listing Service—serving the Seattle area—has prohibited its members from promoting or advertising a property until it is listed in the MLS.

Off-MLS deals amplify concerns about limiting exposure of the property “to a select group of agents to the detriment of the seller and other MLS members,” Tom Hurdelbrink, president and CEO of NWMLS, told REALTOR® Magazine.

Nobody wants to project how this will play out, but it seems obvious.  Every brokerage will operate a Coming Soon program, and the MLS will become the marketplace of last resort.

https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2018/10/23/brokerages-wrestle-with-growth-of-pocket-listings

The photo from the article:

Inventory 2018

Yesterday, Bill featured the C.A.R. release about September sales that included the president’s comment that buyers are ‘self-sidelining’ in anticipation of lower prices ahead.  White included his obligatory blame on the tax reform, which he was so adamantly against even though his case was based on faulty evidence – and it passed anyway.

Bill also included the chart above that showed inventory explosion in CA:

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/10/california-california-housing-market.html

Let’s review our NSDCC stats to see how we are behaving:

Year
Total Listings YoY
Total Sales YoY
TL/TS Ratio
ACT Inventory Mid-Oct
2013
4,277
2,685
1.59
2014
4,108
2,289
1.79
1,091
2015
4,396
2,513
1.75
1,027
2016
4,520
2,469
1.83
987
2017
4,062
2,499
1.63
812
2018
4,163
2,283
1.82
1,013

Our current NSDCC inventory is 25% higher than last year, but it just highlights what a great year we had in 2017 – when the TL/TS ratio was similar to the full-tilt frenzy we had in 2013.

This year looks a lot like the more-normal years of 2014-2016, when the sledding was much tougher.  As long as our current stats are staying in-line with previous years, we should be fine.

Expect more of the same – buying and selling homes is going to be difficult.

Get Good Help!

Recession To Hit Home Prices?

Did you know that our Homeowners’ Bill of Rights expired?  Don’t worry – the state legislature has a new bill in place to reinstate many of the old provisions:

Article on the CA HBOR

I found the end of the article somewhat intriguing.  The author explains that because of rising mortgage rates, sales will slow and prices flatten or drop:

The original Homeowner Bill of Rights was scheduled to expire in 2018, undoubtedly because the 2012 legislature figured the foreclosure crisis would be well over by now.

They were right — foreclosures reached a healthy level in 2016, and have remained low well into 2018. But the cycle of housing boom and bust continues to roll on, and the next recession is approaching on the horizon.

Experts forecast the next economic recession to arrive in 2020. Leading up to that recession, home sales volume will slow (as it is already in the process of doing) and home prices will flatten and drop off, expected to begin in 2019. This is all precipitated by rising interest rates, which have dampened buyer purchasing power and discouraged homebuyers.

Slowing sales and falling prices inevitably lead to an uptick in foreclosures as fewer homeowners who need to sell are able to. However, the 2020 recession won’t see the same type of foreclosure activity that reached a crisis level in 2008 and the years following. The laws put in place in the recovery years have stemmed the tide of unqualified homeowners, thus more homeowners will be able to continue to pay their mortgage during the coming recession than in 2008.

She notes that because home purchasers had to qualify, there will be fewer foreclosures the next time around – good!

For home prices to drop, we would need motivated sellers who will agree to sell for whatever the market will bear – like the bank clerks used to do with REOs.  But with fewer (if any) foreclosures, who is going to dump on price?

Expect that any dip in pricing will be gradual and drawn out.  Homeowners aren’t going to give up their equity easily, and would rather spend a few more years in paradise than believe the dreamy value of their home is wrong.

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