Another increase in rates today but the rate-setters for the mortgage companies have to be a bit gun-shy, and as a result, there is probably at least an 1/8 of a point priced in. Once we get past the Fed meeting that’s underway and Trump’s State of the Union tomorrow, things might settle down. The mortgage guys aren’t as optimistic:
From a week and a half ago, most borrowers are now looking at another eighth of a percentage point higher in rate. In total, rates are up the better part of half a point since December 15th.
This marks the only time rates have risen this much without having been at long term lows in the past year. For example, late 2010, mid-2013, mid-2015, and late 2016 all saw sharper increases in rates overall, but each of those moves happened only 1-3 months after a long term rate low.
The current trend continues to offer false hope with potential ceilings that are quickly broken. Rates have then had a challenging time getting back below those levels. This is classic behavior for these sorts of big, serious market movements and part of the reason we’ve continued to advocate a defensive stance despite periodic victories. Such victories are bound to occur in any interest rate environment.
We need to see bigger victories and more of them if it’s going to make any sort of sense to be anything other than defensive when approaching the current interest rate landscape. Lock early and plan on rates moving higher until we see a broad shift in momentum.
You’ve probably seen how hot the one-story market has been lately.
Baby-boomers prefer no stairs, and typically insist on a single-level home only. Hence the supply and demand is out of whack, and very frustrating for the potential buyers. Of the already-low inventory of houses for sale today between La Jolla and Carlsbad, only 28% of them are one-story.
We want to help!
I created onestorysandiego.com to help demonstrate how Richard and I can assist you be more efficient in your search. The web address forwards to our gallery of video tours of one-story houses only. You won’t have to worry about rushing out to every new listing – you can tour them in the comfort of your own home, AND hear our audio assessment of the house, and its potential.
Once you are established as our client, we will send you custom-tailored videos with your specific wants and needs, plus give you access to a private site to enable you to track the one-story market too.
Contact me today at (858) 997-3801 or klingerealty@gmail.com
Now that we’re keeping track of the total-pendings count, we can see the weekly trends and anticipate the short-term effects. So far, we’re off to what looks like a good start for houses selling between La Jolla and Carlsbad:
Week
Total NSDCC Pendings
Diff %
Jan 1
222
Jan 8
211
-5%
Jan 15
218
+3%
Jan 22
233
+7%
Jan 29
256
+10%
With these being the net numbers (escrows are always falling out), we’ll be able to see if new 2018 deals stick beyond their 17-day contingency periods.
But there have only been 39 new pendings in the last 17 days.
Some of these are double-counted because of value-range pricing, and the actual count today is 244 – I will track the total also (I like this as an indicator).
This is how I can help home buyers search more effectively for one-story houses, which have been a hot ticket lately. Not only will you be able to preview the newest listings by video, but also hear our opinions about them and how you can take advantage.
Below is a sample for public consumption – if you want Jim or Richard to be your realtor, we will custom-tailor the videos for your specific needs, and give you access to our private website that has the hottest buys with the most detailed opinions included.
Contact me for details: (858) 997-3801 or klingerealty@gmail.com. Thank you!
As can be expected, the nicer one-story houses on the lower end are popular – these went pending right away:
4310 La Portalada, Carlsbad 3br/2ba, 1,408sf listed for $715,000:
2640 Vistosa, Old La Costa – $1,025,000:
This has all the right things going right – decent-sized 2,144sf single level home with pie-shaped 13,714sf lot on culdesac in quiet part of Old La Costa with no HOA or Mello-Roos and good access to all:
Those who took in the pro golf and spectacular weather at Torrey Pines today also saw a number of paragliders in the background. It reminded me of our reader Murph checking out the bluff-front houses:
Here’s how he described his close calls:
During my “formative” flying days (about 3 years ago) I had quite a reputation at the Torrey Pines Gliderport. Some of my hair-raising moments included……..
**I was losing lift and trying to make it back to the gliderport, but could not make it so I had to land at Black’s beach. This is rather routine as you just aim for a dry section of sand. Well, as I was rounding a bend and setting up for a final *flare* to land I realized that it was high tide and that particular section of beach did not exist anymore! I landed in 4 feet of water and began a mad panic to unclip my gear before the waves sucked me and my wing back out to sea.
Never have I been so happy to see a middle aged nude guy, as he raced into the surf and held onto my paraglider so I could extricate myself!
**Once while flying over the Torrey Pines Reserve area the wind got too strong and I landed traveling BACKWARDS on the north side of Torrey Pines Rd with my wing draped over a tree. The lifeguards showed up and left when I told them I was uninjured. 15 minutes later I started hearing lots of sirens. They started getting louder and before I knew it there were 4 emergency vehicles there. I told them I was okay so they all left….including a hook and ladder truck that COULD HAVE helped me get my wing out of the tree, but hey…I was alive AND unhurt so no worries here!
** My alternative landing stories also include one where I was trying to fly with the big-boys above Scripps aquarium. In my attempt to make it back to the lift-band along the cliffs I sunk-out and had to land right on La Jolla Shores Dr. Fortunately for me a construction truck not only yielded, but even gave me a ride back to the gliderport!
Luckily I have never hurt myself or anyone else. Torrey Pines is actually a very safe paragliding site……as long as you stay within your comfort zone and fly smart. The more I fly the more conservative I get. My library of noteworthy “stories” has not expanded in the last couple years.
Hear some of the important insights on local real estate trends on a macro and micro level. Hat tip Tom T!
12:05-mark: Alan mentions that there are 35 new-home tracts in Otay Ranch, and at the end of the year there were only three homes for sale.
12:35: Biggest surprise – he could have never imagined how the prices of apartment sales have jumped. There has only been a small handful of other markets in the nation who have experienced the kind of upside that we’ve seen here in San Diego.
14:05: San Diego seems to be the darling of the national investment community, even though we are among the 4th or 5th most expensive apartments in the nation.
The average age of a San Diego apartment is 43 years old.
He has a client who just built 12 units in North Park, and his cost was $500,000 per unit.
If he had one wish, what would it be? Get rid of community planning groups.
There has to be a lot of guesswork on these, so tread carefully. If you want the specific survey for San Diego, it can be found at Remodeling Magazine – they have declared it as too special to be re-produced on the internet. I’ll give an example – an upscale master suite addition would cost $285,000, but only return $150,000. Hat tip to JA for sending this in!
As home prices and mortgage rates rise, more and more homeowners are choosing to stay put and remodel.
Yet, depending on the project, some of the returns are diminishing. Remodeling spending is expected to approach $340 billion in 2018, a 7.5 percent increase over last year, according to Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies.
“Steady gains in the broader economy, and in home sales and prices, are supporting growing demand for home improvements,” said Chris Herbert, managing director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies. “We expect the remodeling market will also get a boost this year from ongoing restoration efforts in many areas of the country impacted by last year’s record-setting natural disasters.”
More homeowners may be remodeling, but those who do high-end projects are seeing less value in those remodels — that is, the expensive upgrades and additions are paying back less in the resale value of homes, according to an annual cost versus value report from Remodeling magazine.
“It’s not clear if this is a sign of nervousness among real estate pros in the face of a booming housing market or if nationwide affordability concerns are leading pros to question the value of renovations that would make a house even more expensive at resale – particularly with the new tax law regarding the deductibility of mortgage interest and state, local and property taxes,” Craig Webb, editor in chief of Remodeling, wrote in a release.
I got an early start this morning and joined the nationwide annual event of counting our homeless population. About 50 volunteers met at the Encinitas headquarters of the Community Resource Center on Second Street downtown at 4:00am today.
We split up into teams, and figured we’d be working the beach area. Instead, everyone was assigned a census tract between Del Mar and Carlsbad in order to provide full coverage.
Our section was in Carmel Valley, and half of our designated area was filled with gated communities so we mostly poked around Pacific Highlands Ranch.
We did see one guy sleeping in his car near the on-going construction, and that was the closest we got to finding anyone who might be homeless. But I’m glad they include those living in cars because the lack of affordable housing is impacting those who have jobs – but can’t afford to live here.
The goal is to identify how big the problem is, and then work to solve it. If you’d like to participate, check the San Diego Regional Task Force on the Homeless, who has the vision of ending homelessness in the San Diego region:
There’s bad blood between Taylor Swift and a Manhattan real estate broker, who claims the pop superstar refused to pay a $1.08 million commission for the purchase of her new Tribeca townhouse.
An unnamed member of brokerage firm Douglas Elliman introduced? the “Shake it Off” singer to the owner of 153 Franklin St., which abuts a building where the “Bad Blood” singer has a duplex penthouse, last year, according to the new Manhattan civil suit.
The property was a perfect match for the frequent paparazzi target, whose apartment building at 155 Franklin St. does not have an indoor garage, requiring Swift to — gasp — park on the street, the suit says.
The Douglas Elliman broker also showed Swift the unlisted 27-foot-wide townhouse, where disgraced French politician Dominique Strauss-Kahn stayed while facing sexual assault charges in 2011. The broker also gave her blueprints for the pad.
But Swift’s management company, Firefly, excluded Douglas Elliman from the October closing, the suit says.
Douglas Elliman is suing for the commission, which equals 6 percent of the sale price.
Although Swift herself is not named as a defendant in the suit, two entities she controls are defendants.
