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Inventory Watch

by | Dec 11, 2017 | Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 11 comments

In an area of 300,000+ people, we only have TEN houses for sale priced under $800,000 – and there are only 118 priced between $800,000 and $1,400,000!

Is it greed, or just supply and demand? It would take something to disrupt the market to find out.  Buyers are already wondering about tax reform, and this could be a hurdle too – the Trump/Mueller saga. Protests are already being planned:

http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/12/09/the-market-shock-no-one-is-ready-for/

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
Nov 7
41
$402/sf
35
1,960sf
Nov 14
37
$405/sf
33
1,903sf
Nov 21
32
$403/sf
35
1,913sf
Nov 28
31
$411/sf
37
1,851sf
Dec 5
42
$420/sf
41
1,868sf
Dec 12
35
$417/sf
32
1,877sf
Dec 19
30
$412/sf
39
1,887sf
Dec 26
29
$430/sf
39
1,850sf
Jan 2
26
$415/sf
42
1,926sf
Jan 9
33
$425/sf
30
1,872sf
Jan 16
31
$429/sf
32
1,815sf
Jan 23
24
$470/sf
36
1,802sf
Jan 30
25
$469/sf
36
1,775sf
Feb 6
34
$478/sf
24
1,685sf
Feb 13
33
$467/sf
22
1,765sf
Feb 20
38
$455/sf
29
1,791sf
Feb 27
29
$479/sf
33
1,673sf
Mar 6
32
$458/sf
22
1,777sf
Mar 13
26
$470/sf
28
1,772sf
Mar 20
19
$462/sf
32
1,807sf
Mar 27
21
$438/sf
24
1,837sf
Apr 3
26
$433/sf
21
1,790sf
Apr 10
28
$423/sf
28
1,823sf
Apr 17
35
$418/sf
28
1,809sf
Apr 24
29
$423/sf
33
1,789sf
May 1
29
$433/sf
35
1,759sf
May 8
29
$422/sf
37
1,855sf
May 15
26
$409/sf
36
1,922sf
May 22
32
$427/sf
31
1,825sf
May 29
35
$448/sf
27
1,791sf
Jun 5
27
$451/sf
35
1,748sf
Jun 12
31
$441/sf
31
1,752sf
Jun 19
23
$444/sf
34
1,739sf
Jun 26
21
$431/sf
37
1,802sf
Jul 3
21
$442/sf
41
1,719sf
Jul 10
27
$456/sf
37
1,685sf
Jul 17
25
$435/sf
37
1,825sf
Jul 24
28
$441/sf
32
1,829sf
Jul 31
20
$422/sf
49
1,830sf
Aug 7
34
$421/sf
37
1,875sf
Aug 14
35
$421/sf
40
1,806sf
Aug 21
39
$428/sf
39
1,804sf
Aug 28
38
$423/sf
35
1,815sf
Sept 4
34
$412/sf
32
1,869sf
Sept 11
26
$418/sf
42
1,862sf
Sept 18
29
$442/sf
33
1,750sf
Sept 25
28
$441/sf
33
1,749sf
Oct 2
24
$427/sf
40
1,786sf
Oct 9
22
$416/sf
45
1,843sf
Oct 16
21
$425/sf
47
1,807sf
Oct 23
17
$443/sf
41
1,713sf
Oct 30
19
$459/sf
40
1,637sf
Nov 6
21
$453/sf
38
1,663sf
Nov 13
23
$431/sf
41
1,791sf
Nov 20
20
$405/sf
53
1,897sf
Nov 27
16
$407/sf
62
1,874sf
Dec 4
17
$435/sf
32
1,745sf
Dec 11
10
$408/sf
39
1,848sf

The $800,000 – $1,400,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
Nov 7
226
$432/sf
51
2,880sf
Nov 14
225
$439/sf
52
2,868sf
Nov 21
219
$445/sf
54
2,857sf
Nov 28
207
$439/sf
59
2,879sf
Dec 5
216
$433/sf
64
2,933sf
Dec 12
200
$443/sf
59
2,880sf
Dec 19
184
$452/sf
61
2,843sf
Dec 26
169
$452/sf
67
2,866sf
Jan 2
153
$464/sf
66
2,802sf
Jan 9
157
$457/sf
61
2,781sf
Jan 16
158
$452/sf
58
2,783sf
Jan 23
153
$463/sf
59
2,745sf
Jan 30
149
$458/sf
56
2,812sf
Feb 6
151
$468/sf
52
2,730sf
Feb 13
160
$457/sf
49
2,776sf
Feb 20
147
$453/sf
52
2,849sf
Feb 27
138
$461/sf
54
2,792sf
Mar 6
148
$470/sf
51
2,803sf
Mar 13
163
$471/sf
46
2,731sf
Mar 20
166
$472/sf
44
2,734sf
Mar 27
163
$460/sf
44
2,775sf
Apr 3
174
$465/sf
37
2,739sf
Apr 10
168
$470/sf
37
2,690sf
Apr 17
165
$467/sf
40
2,726sf
Apr 24
169
$463/sf
39
2,727sf
May 1
175
$462/sf
38
2,784sf
May 8
168
$483/sf
42
2,758sf
May 15
177
$474/sf
42
2,782sf
May 22
186
$465/sf
38
2,873sf
May 29
202
$517/sf
37
2,787sf
Jun 5
220
$519/sf
35
2,788sf
Jun 12
213
$518/sf
40
2,817sf
Jun 19
205
$527/sf
43
2,832sf
Jun 26
219
$530/sf
42
2,772sf
Jul 3
227
$531/sf
43
2,771sf
Jul 10
215
$542/sf
46
2,734sf
Jul 17
222
$533/sf
46
2,747sf
Jul 24
219
$530/sf
49
2,785sf
Jul 31
216
$518/sf
52
2,800sf
Aug 7
213
$510/sf
49
2,795sf
Aug 14
212
$522/sf
47
2,735sf
Aug 21
200
$516/sf
46
2,740sf
Aug 28
210
$511/sf
43
2,703sf
Sept 4
195
$524/sf
42
2,685sf
Sept 11
202
$474/sf
43
2,715sf
Sept 18
183
$473/sf
43
2,712sf
Sept 25
179
$476/sf
43
2,682sf
Oct 2
171
$489/sf
44
2,655sf
Oct 9
161
$495/sf
43
2,633sf
Oct 16
160
$493/sf
43
2,636sf
Oct 23
161
$497/sf
44
2,621sf
Oct 30
160
$498/sf
46
2,610sf
Nov 6
142
$501/sf
50
2,654sf
Nov 13
153
$501/sf
49
2,650sf
Nov 20
141
$485/sf
49
2,630sf
Nov 27
127
501/sf
54
2,601sf
Dec 4
116
$525/sf
55
2,557sf
Dec 11
118
$505/sf
53
2,590sf

The $1,400,000 – $2,400,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
Nov 7
245
$587/sf
82
3,646sf
Nov 14
246
$583/sf
82
3,639sf
Nov 21
241
$585/sf
80
3,649sf
Nov 28
235
$595/sf
86
3,587sf
Dec 5
235
$583/sf
88
3,631sf
Dec 12
221
$588/sf
91
3,616sf
Dec 19
204
$583/sf
89
3,667sf
Dec 26
191
$583/sf
94
3,681sf
Jan 2
171
$587/sf
93
3,647sf
Jan 9
175
$590/sf
90
3,651sf
Jan 16
184
$585/sf
84
3,671sf
Jan 23
196
$596/sf
80
3,657sf
Jan 30
203
$601/sf
79
3,639sf
Feb 6
209
$625/sf
76
3,555sf
Feb 13
217
$642/sf
76
3,500sf
Feb 20
221
$634/sf
73
3,504sf
Feb 27
217
$636/sf
73
3,468sf
Mar 6
228
$636/sf
69
3,445sf
Mar 13
229
$637/sf
69
3,442sf
Mar 20
232
$615/sf
65
3,485sf
Mar 27
233
$613/sf
65
3,497sf
Apr 3
234
$614/sf
64
3,505sf
Apr 10
235
$621/sf
65
3,466sf
Apr 17
242
$618/sf
67
3,462sf
Apr 24
263
$604/sf
65
3,497sf
May 1
265
$600/sf
67
3,486sf
May 8
250
$615/sf
65
3,449sf
May 15
241
$617/sf
66
3,448sf
May 22
259
$618/sf
63
3,476sf
May 29
265
$627/sf
69
3,465sf
Jun 5
268
$605/sf
64
3,515sf
Jun 12
278
$611/sf
65
3,504sf
Jun 19
276
$607/sf
69
3,535sf
Jun 26
278
$607/sf
70
3,535sf
Jul 3
275
$620/sf
71
3,505sf
Jul 10
277
$619/sf
73
3,497sf
Jul 17
272
$622/sf
69
3,509sf
Jul 24
271
$620/sf
72
3,539sf
Jul 31
267
$621/sf
69
3,498sf
Aug 7
259
$620/sf
69
3,515sf
Aug 14
251
$617/sf
70
3,509sf
Aug 21
246
$621/sf
70
3,514sf
Aug 28
244
$633/sf
71
3,524sf
Sept 4
231
$597/sf
68
3,646sf
Sept 11
236
$610/sf
65
3,572sf
Sept 18
241
$610/sf
64
3,563sf
Sept 25
242
$620/sf
64
3,548sf
Oct 2
237
$622/sf
64
3,560sf
Oct 9
251
$624/sf
61
3,509sf
Oct 16
252
$616/sf
61
3,507sf
Oct 23
261
$623/sf
61
3,476sf
Oct 30
252
$624/sf
62
3,476sf
Nov 6
257
$628/sf
61
3,443sf
Nov 13
258
$626/sf
62
3,442sf
Nov 20
246
$630/sf
65
3,404sf
Nov 27
237
$636/sf
70
3,407sf
Dec 4
224
$633/sf
74
3,410sf
Dec 11
218
$643/sf
73
3,409sf

The OVER-$2,400,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
Nov 7
418
$0/sf
136
0sf
Nov 14
418
$0/sf
136
0sf
Nov 21
415
$0/sf
140
0sf
Nov 28
415
$0/sf
143
0sf
Nov 28
415
$0/sf
143
0sf
Dec 5
410
$0/sf
140
0sf
Dec 12
398
$979/sf
143
6,264sf
Dec 19
380
$992/sf
147
6,259sf
Dec 26
373
$991/sf
152
6,304sf
Jan 2
344
$987/sf
148
6,342sf
Jan 9
347
$985/sf
146
6,333sf
Jan 16
355
$945/sf
140
6,317sf
Jan 23
359
$988/sf
138
6,251sf
Jan 30
367
$969/sf
139
6,350sf
Feb 6
380
$975/sf
131
6,252sf
Feb 13
394
$0/sf
131
0sf
Feb 20
400
$0/sf
125
0sf
Feb 27
395
$0/sf
128
0sf
Mar 6
387
$0/sf
129
0sf
Mar 13
389
$1,050/sf
120
6,116sf
Mar 20
385
$1,044/sf
122
6,211sf
Mar 27
382
$1,047/sf
124
6,237sf
Apr 3
383
$1,046/sf
120
6,227sf
Apr 10
386
$0/sf
120
0sf
Apr 17
395
$0/sf
118
0sf
Apr 24
414
$0/sf
110
0sf
May 1
426
$0/sf
108
0sf
May 8
444
$0/sf
110
0sf
May 15
432
$0/sf
112
0sf
May 22
431
$0/sf
109
0sf
May 29
435
$0/sf
111
0sf
Jun 5
424
$0/sf
114
0sf
Jun 12
432
$0/sf
116
0sf
Jun 19
437
$0/sf
118
0sf
Jun 26
435
$0/sf
117
0sf
Jul 3
437
$0/sf
117
0sf
Jul 10
429
$0/sf
118
0sf
Jul 17
435
$0/sf
115
0sf
Jul 24
440
$0/sf
115
0sf
Jul 31
444
$0/sf
115
0sf
Aug 7
438
$0/sf
116
0sf
Aug 14
435
$0/sf
119
0sf
Aug 21
430
$0/sf
117
0sf
Aug 28
429
$0/sf
118
0sf
Sept 4
401
$0/sf
119
0sf
Sept 11
399
$1,132/sf
122
5908sf
Sept 18
404
$0/sf
123
0sf
Sept 25
403
$0/sf
122
0sf
Oct 2
392
$1,152/sf
123
5,811sf
Oct 9
383
$1,159/sf
124
5,913sf
Oct 16
376
$1,167/sf
126
5,867sf
Oct 23
373
$1,171/sf
127
5,852sf
Oct 30
374
$1,178/sf
128
5,901sf
Nov 6
374
$1,180/sf
125
5,924sf
Nov 13
379
$1,187/sf
123
5,879sf
Nov 20
369
$1,200/sf
125
5,882sf
Nov 27
359
$1,126/sf
127
5,986sf
Dec 4
343
$1,116/sf
127
6,008sf
Dec 11
338
$1,121/sf
131
6,017sf

Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
May 30
70
84
June 5
87
64
June 11
77
69
June 17
73
66
June 24
100
69
July 1
86
64
July 8
81
53
July 15
106
54
July 22
105
89
July 29
71
74
Aug 5
105
64
Aug 12
77
61
Aug 19
88
73
Aug 26
87
77
Sep 2
76
55
Sep 9
85
58
Sep 16
102
61
Sep 23
84
54
Sep 30
73
80
Oct 7
80
61
Oct 14
78
53
Oct 21
70
63
Oct 28
54
40
Nov 4
63
53
Nov 11
49
64
Nov 18
52
44
Nov 25
48
40
Dec 2
25
34
Dec 9
45
47
Dec 16
56
46
Dec 23
21
39
Dec 30
14
23
Jan 6
63
25
Jan 13
75
44
Jan 20
98
51
Jan 27
71
56
Feb 3
74
63
Feb 10
95
59
Feb 17
81
76
Feb 24
80
70
Mar 3
88
71
Mar 10
98
54
Mar 17
87
65
Mar 24
89
76
Mar 31
77
57
April 7
98
61
April 14
108
72
April 21
87
62
April 28
122
73
May 5
144
67
May 12
96
85
May 19
87
61
May 26
97
72
Jun 2
90
59
Jun 9
108
52
Jun 16
103
65
Jun 23
131
62
Jun 30
85
70
July 7
83
59
July 14
100
62
July 21
112
75
July 28
113
62
Aug 4
84
48
Aug 11
95
62
Aug 18
83
54
Aug 25
72
54
Sep 1
71
60
Sep 8
81
57
Sep 15
80
49
Sep 22
77
49
Sep 29
79
51
Oct 6
78
54
Oct 13
73
54
Oct 20
70
64
Oct 27
55
54
Nov 3
60
45
Nov 10
72
63
Nov 17
57
65
Nov 24
56
41
Dec 1
41
37
Dec 8
46
30
Dec 15
31
34
Dec 22
30
31
Dec 29
15
25
Jan 5
36
25
Jan 12
85
40
Jan 19
78
48
Jan 26
74
50
Feb 2
77
43
Feb 9
106
68
Feb 16
81
67
Feb 23
86
63
Mar 2
83
64
Mar 9
99
68
Mar 16
93
76
Mar 23
101
84
Mar 30
89
81
Apr 6
80
58
Apr 13
95
68
Apr 20
101
70
Apr 27
77
69
May 4
112
74
May 11
100
67
May 18
109
80
May 25
91
69
June 1
91
70
June 8
107
90
June 15
99
67
June 22
107
62
June 29
100
74
July 6
91
62
July 13
126
58
July 20
93
62
July 27
83
74
Aug 3
90
56
Aug 10
93
57
Aug 17
85
60
Aug 24
73
60
Aug 31
82
54
Sep 7
87
59
Sep 14
80
51
Sep 21
74
48
Sep 28
76
53
Oct 5
83
53
Oct 12
63
54
Oct 19
67
45
Oct 26
62
50
Nov 2
77
60
Nov 9
74
54
Nov 16
70
56
Nov 23
72
49
Nov 30
35
42
Dec 7
57
42
Dec 14
53
41
Dec 21
51
30
Dec 28
15
25
Jan 4
38
22
Jan 11
84
43
Jan 18
96
33
Jan 25
102
42
Feb 1
87
46
Feb 8
88
55
Feb 15
102
71
Feb 22
100
52
Feb 29
80
72
March 7
123
52
March 14
101
75
March 21
90
75
March 28
94
64
April 4
112
72
April 11
95
75
April 18
99
81
April 25
105
72
May 2
115
65
May 9
100
76
May 16
113
70
May 23
110
75
May 30
102
83
Jun 6
91
68
Jun 13
104
58
Jun 20
111
62
Jun 27
109
69
Jul 4
99
59
Jul 11
73
43
Jul 18
119
61
Jul 25
108
68
Aug 1
92
68
Aug 8
103
63
Aug 15
77
65
Aug 22
80
66
Aug 29
76
75
Sept 5
89
67
Sept 12
98
60
Sept 19
95
69
Sept 26
76
68
Oct 3
78
69
Oct 10
75
46
Oct 17
92
60
Oct 24
79
50
Oct 31
59
54
Nov 7
65
44
Nov 14
75
45
Nov 21
63
52
Nov 28
31
34
Dec 5
86
47
Dec 12
46
41
Dec 19
45
58
Dec 26
21
26
Jan 2
35
22
Jan 9
73
38
Jan 16
98
46
Jan 23
74
59
Jan 30
65
43
Feb 6
101
55
Feb 13
89
55
Feb 20
92
57
Feb 27
66
73
Mar 6
102
66
Mar 13
99
59
Mar 20
93
82
Mar 27
82
60
Apr 3
104
70
Apr 10
96
83
Apr 17
99
69
Apr 24
106
68
May 1
111
88
May 8
96
94
May 15
93
80
May 22
104
60
May 29
112
93
Jun 5
100
71
Jun 12
98
71
Jun 19
81
60
Jun 26
86
48
Jul 3
88
65
Jul 10
80
55
Jul 17
109
64
Jul 24
86
61
Jul 31
90
75
Aug 7
99
71
Aug 14
76
65
Aug 21
83
62
Aug 28
96
60
Sept 4
74
71
Sept 11
81
42
Sept 18
77
47
Sept 25
67
59
Oct 2
71
61
Oct 9
96
63
Oct 16
72
51
Oct 23
64
42
Oct 30
55
43
Nov 6
84
49
Nov 13
81
39
Nov 20
46
60
Nov 27
23
37
Dec 4
45
39
Dec 11
49
41

11 Comments

  1. elbarcosr
    elbarcosr on December 11, 2017 at 8:16 am

    For the 800-1.4, the pendings in Nov/Dec are stronger than Sept/Oct and on a ratio basis, much stronger than the rest of the year. Normal end of year push? Something else?

    In the under 800k, I didn’t add it up, but at quick glance, the pendings equal or outpace the actives most of the time. What’s the DOM for under 800k? 2 days? LOL.

  2. daytrip
    daytrip on December 11, 2017 at 10:16 am

    The Moore thing is the most important economic issue on the plate. The reason Trump’s opposition is behaving over-the-top on Moore (bussing in political insurgents from other states. CNN making a lot of reporting “mistakes,” etc.) is because if he wins, Trump gets to continue appointing conservative federal judges without imposition.

    Conservative judges help to disable economic social programming initiatives. Social programming initiatives are an imperative for globalist friendly initiatives. Globalist friendly initiatives are what allows Chinese citizens, for example, to buy properties here in the US without much interference, as well as making sure illegal immigrants get money back on their tax returns. The “wrong” federal judges can collectively cost homeowners and renters a LOT of money.

    As noted by others, Republicans now hold 52 Senate seats. If Democrats pick up the Alabama seat, they need only two more to recapture the Senate, and win the power to kill any conservative court nominee. The GOP, holding Congress and the White House, has a narrow path to capture the Third Branch, the Supreme Court, and to dominate the federal courts for a decade.That hasn’t been the case since before Roosevelt. It’s a big deal.

    So some country bumpkin, apparently doing what country bumpkins do, is the leverage point. Elvis Presley started dating his future wife when she was 14, her dad was very happy, and nobody cared. Currently, Moore’s opponent “leads in the polls,” and every liberal champion newspaper is squawking like drunken parrots on a pirate ship for Moore’s inevitable demise, as well as carting out alleged victim’s of Trump’s bad dates.

    Wonder where we’ve seen all that before? It’s not the creativity, because it’s not clever, but the urgency we should take note of. Trump’s opposition is about to be relegated to heckler’s in the peanut gallery, while Trump changes… everything. And they don’t like that idea at all. Presidents and congress and the senate… matters.

    Just my opinion, and I could be wrong. As I’ve noted before, I pay particular attention to this, as I believe it’s extremely important for the economic long haul. Social engineering initiatives are very very very expensive. Federal courts can stick a fork in the craziest ones.

  3. elbarcosr
    elbarcosr on December 11, 2017 at 10:40 am

    Sorry daytrip, you are going to need to whittle that down to 140 characters and/or create a hastag movement. Look a chef molested someone. Squirrel.

  5. daytrip
    daytrip on December 11, 2017 at 11:36 am

    Twitter should be renamed “Heckle.”

  7. elbarcosr
    elbarcosr on December 11, 2017 at 11:53 am

    I like it. Should just launch Heckle. 150 characters. Lifetime ban for posting puppy pictures. No feel-good stories. Just a perpetual “airing of grievances”. Gold Jerry, gold.

  9. elbarcosr
    elbarcosr on December 11, 2017 at 2:30 pm

    Is that a video of JTR pulling up to an over-priced turkey on open house?

  10. franklin jones
    franklin jones on December 11, 2017 at 4:04 pm

    supply coupled with strong demand, excellent schools and great lifestyle, Encinitas, Cardiff, South carlsbad at under 800 SFR, at 4% interest is a no-brainer.

  11. Tom
    Tom on December 11, 2017 at 7:44 pm

    The remodeling and upgrades in South Carlsbad where I live are off the charts. The message it sends? Up Up Up we go…where we stop…nobody knows.

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